ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - The party that backs Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was headed for a major defeat on Tuesday after voters rallied to the opposition, raising questions about the future of the U.S. ally who has ruled since 1999.
As president, former army chief Musharraf did not contest Monday’s parliamentary elections aimed at completing a transition to civilian rule, but the outcome could seal his fate.
A hostile parliament could try to remove Musharraf, who took power as a general in a 1999 coup and emerged as a crucial U.S. ally in a “war on terror” that most Pakistanis think is Washington’s, not theirs.
The election was relatively peaceful after a bloody campaign and opposition fears of rampant rigging by Musharraf’s supporters appeared unfounded.
The vote was postponed from January 8 after the assassination of former prime minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto in a suicide attack on December 27, which raised concern about the nuclear-armed country’s stability.
Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has been expected to reap a sympathy vote and was doing well, early results showed.
But unofficial Election Commission tallies showed the other main opposition party, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, leading in Punjab province where half the members of parliament will be elected.
** No party is expected to win a majority in the 342-seat National Assembly but either Bhutto’s PPP or Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), was set to be biggest.**
Whichever is bigger will be best placed to lead a coalition.
As results came in showing prominent members of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) which backs Musharraf losing seats, analysts weighed the implications for a president whose popularity has slumped over the past year.
“It’s the moment of truth for the president,” said Abbas Nasir, editor of the Dawn newspaper.
“There will be thoughts swirling in his mind, whether he can forge a working relationship with two parties whose leadership he kept out of the country.”
Bhutto spent eight years in self-exile to avoid corruption charges she denied. Sharif was exiled a year after Musharraf ousted him in 1999. Both returned late last year.
Sharif was barred from the election because of past criminal convictions he says were politically motivated.
“ANTI-MUSHARRAF VOTE”
Despite a mixed record as prime minister, when he clashed with the judiciary, Sharif’s defiance of old foe Musharraf and support for the judges he purged appeared to have paid off.
A victory for Sharif, who Musharraf ousted in 1999, would be a disaster for Musharraf. Sharif has repeatedly called for Musharraf’s removal and analysts say Musharraf wants a coalition between the PPP and the PML.
Some analysts said the decisive factor in the PML’s defeat was Musharraf, who angered many Pakistanis when he imposed six weeks of emergency rule and purged the judiciary, and resentment over inflation, food shortages and power cuts.
“There’s an anti-Musharraf vote, definitely,” political analyst Kamran Shafi told Dawn Television.
** PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, a former prime minister, lost his seat in Punjab to a Bhutto party candidate, television networks said.** Several other top PML members, including ministers in the outgoing government, also lost seats.
Groups of opposition supporters celebrated in the streets of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Karachi as results trickled out.
Full unofficial election results are due later on Tuesday.
Musharraf said on Monday he would work with whoever won to build democracy in a country that has alternated between civilian and army rule throughout its 60-year history: “Everyone should accept the results, that includes myself,” he said.
Fear appeared to have kept many people from the polls, despite 80,000 troops backing up police, although a poll watchdog group said initial estimates suggested turnout of nearly 42 percent, almost matching that in the last election in 2002.
A suicide bomb campaign waged by al Qaeda-inspired militants has added to a mounting sense of insecurity. More than 450 people have been killed in militant-related violence this year, many in the northwest where religious parties fared poorly.
Election-day violence, though bad in places, was not as severe as many had feared. Twenty people were killed, including 15 PPP activists, Bhutto’s widower Asif Ali Zardari said.
The poll watchdog group said there had been a few incidents of polling irregularities.
Western allies hope for a stable Pakistan focused on fighting militancy, as do investors in a stock market that rose 40 percent last year but has shed about 3 percent since Bhutto’s death.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080219/ts_nm/pakistan_election_dc