My sources are limited. But it appears to me that many Urdu speaking people have started becoming disenchanted with MQM’s performance in the last five years. MQM’s graph was low in 2002, then Mustafa Kamal gave it real boost … but now things are probably started to come down again. People are unhappy for MQM continue to support the government without bringing any benefit to the city.
It is interesting to see what people will do if not voting for MQM. I think majority will just stay home. While the remaining people will vote for parties like APML, PTI (but not PPP or PML).
Overall, I think MQM will still win most seats in the city but the no. of votes for it are going to be less.
Re: MQM's chances among Urdu speaking people in Karachi
^ some of my friends from karachi tell me that mqm might lose 2-3 seats from karachi. It would be interesting to see if PTI can get some seats from there or not, as they will get votes from disenchanted Urdu speaking people and Pashtuns. The seats of Anp would be interesting to watch as well.
Re: MQM's chances among Urdu speaking people in Karachi
MQM is still under total control of Altaf. I think no one dares to oppose whatever Altaf wishes. This is why they sometimes make weird decisions which are inexplicable. Even though there is a Rabita Committee, such decisions appear to have been made in haste by a single person. This is probably Altaf doing it.
Altaf has now become a liability to the party. I hope MQM could get out of his firm grip. It would be great if the party works without a leader-for-life. That would be first time in Pakistan's history.