Moody’s investors Upgrades Pakistan Bond Ratings

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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More international plaudits and recognition for Pakistan’s economic success under the Musharraf-Aziz adminstration. :k:

Pakistan Bond Ratings Raised by Moody’s on Lower Debt

Pakistan’s debt ratings were raised one level by Moody’s Investors Service as an expanding economy helps the government repay debt, giving the country access to cheaper funding. Moody’s raised its ratings on Pakistan’s foreign-currency and rupee bonds to B1, four levels below investment grade, the rating company said in a statement today. The outlook on the ratings is stable,'' it said. The upgrade primarily reflects the ongoing decline in the country’s public and external debt ratios, largely the result of a significant structural increase in GDP growth,‘’ the ratings company said in the statement. The upgrade in the South Asian nation’s rating, which puts it on par with the Philippines, Indonesia and Jamaica, will improve Pakistan’s standing as an investment destination and help the government lower borrowing costs. Pakistan’s $129 billion economy is forecast to expand 7 percent this year, from 6.6 percent growth in the last fiscal year. The government plans to sell as much as $500 million of foreign currency bonds this year, besides offering shares in two state-owned energy companies and three banks to overseas investors. The rating change ``will help Pakistan raise cheaper debt through the international markets and it will indirectly assist the government to raise money from the sale of shares,‘’ said Mohammed Sohail, director of research at Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets Ltd. in Karachi.

Oil & Gas Sale

Pakistan plans to price and allocate as much as 15 percent of Oil & Gas Development Co., the nation’s biggest explorer, on Dec. 1 after having started the marketing of the shares last week. The government expects to raise $1.4 billion from the Oil & Gas Development stake sale. The government has raised $1.9 billion selling foreign currency bonds thrice since 2004, the first time since 1998, when western countries imposed sanctions on Pakistan for testing nuclear weapons that year. **Pakistan's real sector has been enlivened by several years of structural reforms, including a restructuring of the banking sector, trade liberalization and a program of privatization that has improved productivity and spurred foreign investment,'' Moody's Vice President Tristan Cooper said.** Pakistan's Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz expects the economy to expand at an annual rate of as much as 8 percent in the next five years. Reflection of Confidence The upgrade will help us to be competitive in the international debt and capital markets,‘’ Zafar Shaikh, a director at the debt-management department in the Finance Ministry, said in a phone interview. This is a reflection of confidence shown by the international community in our economic reform program. It was expected due to our prudent economic management.'' The country's benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index has climbed 10-fold since 2001, when President Pervez Musharraf's decision to become a key U.S. ally in the war on terrorism attracted overseas aid and loans. The key index rose 0.2 percent to 10,646.24 at the close today. The ratings increase will be good for Pakistan psychologically as the country in the past has got a bad press,‘’ said Ather Medina, who helps manage the equivalent of $63 million as chief operating officer at Atlas Asset Management Co. in Karachi.

Concerns

Pakistan’s rising current account deficit, inflation and tax to GDP ratio arising from a narrow tax base are concerns, Moody’s said. The current account deficit widened to $2.59 billion in the July-September period from $1.58 billion. The deficit could widen to $6.5 billion this year, from about $5 billion last year, KASB Securities Ltd. said in an Oct. 12 report. ``A substantial portion of extra government expenditure is being directed towards development spending and reconstruction following the 2005 earthquake,‘’ the report said. Pakistan plans to spend about $5.2 billion in five years to rehabilitate 3 million people left homeless and reconstruct cities destroyed by the Oct. 8, 2005, earthquake in the country’s northern areas. The quake killed more than 73,000 people.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aOQZXIZMwNKM

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I believe this is the highest rating in recent years. can anyone confirm

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Yes, I understand it is.

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WASHINGTON: “General Pervez Musharraf is demonstrating former soldiers can make effective economic administrators,” according to a report filed by Financial News Online correspondent Kit Bingham from Islamabad.

Bingham writes that in some seven years since Gen Musharraf’s successful military coup, Pakistan has been transformed from a debt-ridden basket case dependent on handouts from the International Monetary Fund to one of the most intriguing and best-performing emerging markets. Though often overshadowed by the neighbouring giants of China and India, Pakistan has its own story. With 165 million people, its population is the sixth-largest on earth and strikingly young, with some 80 percent under the age of 40. Despite the poverty and the after-effect of the 2005 earthquake, “signs of a consumer boom remain”. About 1.5 million mobile phones are sold each month and operators report 94 percent growth rates.

The report says that “the world has taken note” and foreign direct investment, much of it from the Middle East, topped $3.5 billion in the most recent financial year, double the previous year and 10 times more than five years ago. The country has received other unexpected boosts. Gen Musharraf’s move to ally Pakistan squarely with the US after 9/11 proved lucrative. Economic sanctions imposed after its 1998 nuclear tests were lifted and the US announced $3 billion of assistance, including military aid and debt relief. Other nations rallied round to cancel or reschedule loans with the result that Pakistan’s debt has dropped from a critical $32 billion in 1999 to less than half that today.

** Bingham points out that the rosier outlook is not just the result of outsiders’ largesse. Gen Musharraf’s “bold policies have been well executed by his team”. Pakistan has raised some $5 billion from privatisations since 1999, including selling 80 percent of the banking sector that was in state hands. Telecoms, utilities and assets in oil and gas have been put on the block, with more than a dozen large deals to come. Independent regulators have been set up, tax reforms pursued and a free press allowed to blossom. These reforms have facilitated Pakistan’s return to international markets, raising a $500 million, five-year Eurobond in 2004, six years after the Standard & Poor’s agency rated its debt in “selective default” after nuclear tests. The Karachi Stock Exchange is in turbo-charge mode, its leading index growing sixfold since 2002, the best return of any stock market in the region.

Bingham writes, “Financial services staff are reaping the rewards. Last week, MCB Bank, advised by Merrill Lynch, became the first Pakistan company to list on the London Stock Exchange when it raised $150 million floating global depositary receipts. OGDCL, an oil and gas group, will follow this year, advised by Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. **

The Pakistan story has risks, of course, many of which can be seen on a map. To the east lies India; the nuclear-armed neighbours have fought three wars since partition in 1947 and relations are never less than piano-wire tense. West is Afghanistan. Enough said. At home, Musharraf faces challenges from anti-American, Islamic political parties, elements of which control a handy minority of parliamentary seats, and he can hardly be unaware of Pakistan’s penchant for power grabs and coups. Those who live by the sword - well, you know the rest. But, for now, he looks safe and, while democracy seems some way off, bankers are not complaining.”

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Pakistan is very resource rich. It is the political risks that continue to keep it down

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There are many dark clouds on the horizon though... Exports are down, imports are up, Textiles not performing well, KSE is not performing well, PIA is nearly bankrupt, Tax system is flawed, corruption is up... There is alot to be worried about, its not a rosy picture at all...
Hate to be downer, but lets keep things in the proper prespective... Pakistan needs good leadership and visionary thinking right now.
The article doesnt mention any of these economic hurdles. But still, any publicity is good publicity I suppose.

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Good post, but the people posting like that Silly Kid are not interested in anything like ground realities or a true view.

They simply want to promote their dictator for their own personal reasons, not because he is helping the masses of Pakistan.

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PaKpatriot1

Brother, you wrote a little true and a little untrue (kuch saach and kuch gaap) :smiley:

True, there are many dark clouds waiting on the horizon to pounce over Pakistan (some of their spokesmen are on this forum too). Qazi, Fazlu, Baldi (Ganja choor), choor baby, baba 30 percent, Gold digger (Imran), etc are all waiting to reverse the caravan of Pakistan from moving towards better Pakistan. They are all worried and scared of seeing their exploitations and superiority over ordinary Pakistanis slowly waning. :hoonh:

As for your concern over exports down, imports up, textiles not performing, KSE not performing, PIA getting bankrupt, Tax system, corruption etc, they are all untrue and propaganda to misguide unaware innocents :naraz:.

Export and Import: Look at the figures.

http://www.sbp.gov.pk/ecodata/exp_import_BOP.pdf

Exports have gone up from 7.5 billion dollars in 1998-1999 (last year of Nawaz) to around 16.4 billion dollars in 2005-2006, an impressive average increase of 11.83 percent every year of last 7 years. This year (2006-2007) export could surpass 20 billion dollars. [This was change in trend as export before Musharraf was on decreasing trend]

Imports have gone up from 9.6 billion dollars in 1998-1999 (last year of Nawaz) to around 24.6 billion dollars in 2005-2006, an impressive average increase of 14.39 percent every year of last 7 years. This year (2006-2007) export may reach 28 billion dollars. [This was change in trend as import before Musharraf was on decreasing trend]

Thus, Pakistan share in world trade (export and import) started increasing after Musharraf came to power, showing booming economy.

Textile performance: Well, Pakistan textile output almost double over last seven years (again it was change in trend, as Pakistan textile industries were going bankrupt before Musharraf came to power). Actually, Pakistan textile export is now over 10 billion dollars (more then twice it was before President Musharraf came to power). If you consider that as not performing well, then I do not know what performing well would mean to you?

KSE is not performing well: Gosh! that is joke of the century. Pakistan KSE-100 index was less than 1200 when Musharraf came to power. [That figure of 1200 was after recovery, as before nuclear test, it was around 1200 to 1400 that went down to once touch 700 and then recovered].

Today KSE-100 index is around 10600 plus, an impressive 880 percent increase over 7 years, or an average of over 36.5 percent increase for each and every year during last 7 years. This performance when currency is stable, is remarkable

Over the last seven years, Karachi stock exchange is considered the best performing stock exchange in the world (even in dollars term). In last 7 years of Musharraf rule, it topped the world stock index during most years (maybe, 5 to 6 times). If someone had invested 1000 US dollars in Karachi stock exchange when Musharraf came to power (1999), and reinvested the dividends, that person would have been sitting on over 20000 dollars today (over 20 times in dollars).

*.

PIA nearly bankrupt: Hmm, well, at one time the situation of PIA was that, government was thinking to sell it free. Actually, it was literally a company with negative equity. Today, even though it is not out of problems but certainly it is in much better shape then what it was in 1999.

Tax system is flawed: Bhai, kuch tou sharrm karo. Tax system could get better but still, it is much better in Pakistan than ever before. Here are the figures:

http://www.sbp.gov.pk/ecodata/tax.pdf

In 1998-1999, federal tax collection was 308.5 billion rupees.

Since 1998-1999, government has handed over collection of some tax revenue to provinces, still by 2005-2006, federal tax collection increased to 713.5 billion rupees. That is an impressive increase of over 230 percent, or 12.7 percent a year compounded, in 7 years. Is that bad? [When rupees did not devalued, hence that increase is in dollar terms too]

Note the increase between 2 years before that? It was an increase from 282 billion rupees to 308 billion rupees (from 1996-1997 to 1998-1999), that was 9.2 percent or 4.5 percent a year compounded, in 2 years. That was actually negative growth in dollar terms (due to rupees devaluation over that period).

Corruption is up: Bhai corruption is comparative. So, when you say that corruption is up, what you mean, with respect to what period and with whose government you are comparing? Why don’t you look at the post #18](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/showpost.php?p=4598438&postcount=18) and check what corruption was before Musharraf came to power and what it is like now?

The figure of transparency International is that, the perception of Pakistanis regarding corruption is that, out of 100 people:

48.7 percent believe that Pakistan had most corruption during Bai-Nazeer government.
43.03 percent believe that Pakistan had most corruption during Nawaz government.

Whereas

Only 3.17 percent believe that Pakistan has most corruption during Musharraf government.

So, does that mean, corruption is up?

There is some misconception regarding recent corruption index of transparency international. Actually, that misconception is because transparency international publishes two different types of perceptions. One is perception of corruption by international community and other is perception of corruption by people within the country (country specific).

Now international community can have perception entirely different from reality, just like many in international community have perception that Muslims are terrorists, though no Muslim believes that Muslims are terrorists, but it is some cults claiming to be Muslims are terrorists.

Thus, the best measurement of corruption perception can be taken from the perception of people within the country (that is country specific), though that perception cannot compare different countries, as perception of corruption, that is country specific is though nearer to reality, still that measurement of corruption perception can only compare different periods or government within country.

Thus, when comparing two periods in a country, country specific perception of corruption is best real measurements. World perception of corruption can never be true perception, as perception of unknown (people living in one country and giving their perception of another country) changes over much longer period of time.

Depends on whose shoe a person is. If a person is corrupt, wants to exploit Pakistan, want to earn a lot more from corruption and exploitation, picture does not look rosy at all. Actually, it looks very thorny. [Nawaz, Bai-Nazeer and many corrupts must be feeling that thorn even while sleeping on feather bed obtained from corruption].

Seems we have one (in president Musharraf), just pray that it stays and when that visionary thinking leader leaves, he leaves a system in such situation, that corrupts and exploiters could not change it again to their liking.*

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sa1eem - thank you, saved me from pulling all that info. thank u for sharing with us.

'parrots have flown from people's hands' and now they are just 'peeking into their armpits' :D

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No doubts, if Pakistan economy depreciates, Pak"Patriot" will start saying how well Pakistan is doing in other areas..Can you not even find it in yourself to say that yes, Pakistan is improving and future prospects are looking good?

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I agree with all your figures yaar… And your right, much HAS improved over the last seven years…
But what im mentioning and what a lot of other people are hinting at, including international banks etc is the figures from this year… I dont doubt that much has improved over the last seven years, but currently there are many serious problems facing the country.
The economy is currently a consumer driven economy, we are consuming but not producing.
Thus imports are up, but the exports have shown a decline this year. Textile owners have admited there is a problem and so has the govt. The govt has been blaming the industry saying they havent taken full advantage of the oppurtunities, while the industry has been saying that its because of high production costs. The textile industry and exports in general have shown improvement, its this year that the problems have suddenly come up, and are painting a worrisome picture for future growth.
The Taxes may have improved, but the system is still skewed and flawed. Pakistan tax system is not broad enough, tax net still needs to be expanded.
KSE has definently gained over the past seven years, but again, this year has been generally disappointing. This years perfromance was far from what it was last year.
PIA is also running in loss right now. And may not be as bad as before, this years performance leaves much to be desired.
And the fact is that whether we like it or not, Pakistans rating on corruption has gotten worse no matter how we spell it out. Investors dont care how we got that image or why, just that the perception exists.
Now, im just trying to blow the wistle here… The warnings are everywhere, dwelling on past accomplishments is great, but we need to be focused on the future, and currently these are the problems. Ignoring the problems and focusing on the positives is a recipe for disaster.
I hope optamism proved right though. I personally like Musharaf, but you have to see the economy in its current state. And currently these are the problems.*

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Whats with you people, someone points out the obvious problems with the economy and suddenly you pounce on them for anti state activity.. Grow up dude. This is the problem with Pakistan.. Everyone thinks they are right and who ever doesnt agree is the enemy.
Im pointing out obvious problems with the economy… If you dont like me, go argue with the IMF, Woeld Bank, govt own figures for this year… Facts are facts, the economy hasnt been performing as well as it has over the past few years.
Now roadrunner, you have only 700 posts, so you havent been here long enough to get to know me, so please dont start questioning my motives unless you know what your talking about.

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^^ But this is exactly what Sa1eem is trying to point out to you..Corruption in Pakistan is actually DOWN, Exports and Imports are up, the economy is growing at one of the fastest rates in the world..Moody’s, the IMF, World Bank are all raising Pak’s credit rating..and yet you still cannot admit that Pakistan is a vastly improving country..Even you cannot admit it is improving! That’s the joke of it all.

Just a quick look for the first link on World Bank shows praise being heaped on Pakistan

**World Bank Sees Strong Economic Growth Ahead
In Islamabad: Mariam Altaf, (92-51) 2279641
*email: *[EMAIL=“[email protected]”][email protected]
In Washington: Erik Nora, (202) 458 4735
*email: *[EMAIL=“[email protected]”][email protected]

ISLAMABAD, December 8, 2006 ─ “Pakistan’s economy has built up a strong momentum of growth” said John Wall, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan, following a “Growth and Competitiveness Conference” at the Lahore University of Management Science on December 5 & 6. “Pakistan’s economy will add another year of over 6% growth for the fourth year in a row. This is a remarkable achievement particularly given the major shocks of a big oil price hike and the October 2005 earthquake.”, he said.

Rapid growth has produced a sharp fall in poverty of 5%-10%, an increase in investment from 18% to over 20% of GDP, a great acceleration in foreign trade and reduction in public debt from 85% of GDP in 1999/2000 to 55% at the start of 2006/07. The Government of Pakistan has put in place a sound framework for fiscal management, the “Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Bill.” Pakistan’s credit ratings have steadily improved, allowing the Government to return to the capital markets to raise resources. Investor confidence has been restored resulting in private capital inflows through remittances, privatization proceeds and portfolio investment. These have allowed private foreign saving to grow by six percentage points of GDP over the last four years. Official transfers have also increased as The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and Islamic Development Bank; and Japan, UK, US and others countries, all have made available dramatically larger financial assistance to Pakistan for its long term development. Managing this faster growth has given Pakistan very different and much better quality problems than at the beginning of this decade. Then the problems were low growth, high poverty, high debt and stagnant foreign trade. Now the problems are those of keeping the monetary fiscal and foreign payment accounts in balance while all the former problems are rapidly improving.

Inflation is in single digits and falling, from a spike of over 10% to 7.5% or less. Interest rates have risen and the growth of credit to the private sector is moderating, indicating tighter monetary policies. Further reductions in inflation may require even tighter credit policies.

Expenditure pressures, including coping with the earthquake reconstruction of over half a million houses and much higher development expenditures on much needed infrastructure, have increased. Tax revenues have grown faster than GPD over the past two years, although they are still low compared to the economy’s expenditure needs. Nevertheless the overall fiscal stance also has been tight and the deficits so far are close to their targets.

The rapid economic growth led to a very healthy growth in foreign trade, resulting in large trade and current account deficits. These have been financed with mostly non debt creating capital inflows—official transfers, privatization and foreign investment. Foreign debt, as a percent of GDP, is falling rapidly. Foreign reserves have not fallen—they have even risen a bit, although not as fast as imports. Most recently, foreign trade has cooled off, with sharp reductions in the growth of both imports and exports. If exports pick up from their sudden and inexplicable slump, the trade gap will narrow.
**
http://www.worldbank.org.pk/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASIAEXT/PAKISTANEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21155623~menuPK:293057~pagePK:2865066~piPK:2865079~theSitePK:293052,00.html

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Doubt about the state of the economy and future prespectives are based on the current details.. I already know how well the economy has performed… What I mentioned are hurdles in the way of future growth. Im just the messenger here folks…

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Read the news yaar, textiles are not performing well this year.
Textile’s share in exports comes down to 58%

By Tanveer Ahmed

KARACHI: The share of the textile sector in the total exports of the country came down to 58 percent in first four months (July-Oct) of current financial year from 65 percent one year ago.

The conditons in the textile sector on all fronts are indicating a bleak picture since the beginning of current financial year, which has been making the economic managers of the country sleepless, who made huge claims of taking the country’s textile exports to further heights at the time of announcement of budget and trade policy.

During the last financial year, the textile exports accounted for 60 percent in total exports of the country, howerver share slashed to 58 percent in the first four months because of declining trend in textile exports. According to the foreign trade statistics, the textile exports have declined by 9 percent during Jul-Oct of 2006-07 to $3.2b as against $3.5b in the same period of last year.

Out of the thirteen items that constitute textile group, only five could post growth in exports. Cotton Cloth, Bed Wear and Readymade Garments that collectively carry around 50 percent weight in the total textile exports, recorded a decline of 18.5 percent, 19.3 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. Thus, export of value-added products posted a declining trend.

The more worrisome factor is slowdown in expansion of the textile industry because of poor export performance. The industry, which went for major BMR programme some years back to reap the benefits of post quota regime imported billion dollar textile machinery.

However, in July-Oct 2006-07, the import of textile machinery also saw a considerable reduction of 33 percent compared to same period last year, which is indicative of the fact that industrialists are now more in a mood to invest in further expansion of textile industry at the moment.

According to textile exporters, they do not see any improvement in the country’s textile exports in the coming days and feared that the second quarter’s textile export might be on downward side because of the fast loosing share in international textile markets.

Farhan Aziz, research analyst at Jahangir Siddiuqi Capital Market observed that a decline in exports could create a negative impact on the smaller textile manufacturers, while the larger units, which have strong presence in the foreign markets will not be affected.

Although the EU reduced duties on Pakistani bed-linen products from about 13 percent to 7.5 percent in May 2006, he said, this could not help Pakistani products maintain or improve its exports.

The main cause behind this decline was intensifying competition from exporting countries where manufacturing cost is relatively cheaper when compared to Pakistan. Besides, lesser focus on value-added products also makes Pakistani manufactures uncompetitive in the international markets, Aziz felt. However, a government official said that although, the cost of production has gone up over the years, but the Pakistan textile manufactures did not concentrate on brining improvement in quality and designing of their products, which is also a big reason loosing the export orders.

“The government has given fiscal incentives to the industry, whatever was possible in the shape of textile package and R&D support, however industry should also play its part to introduce innovative designs and improve the quality to attract the foreign buyers,” he added.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006\12\01\story_1-12-2006_pg5_3

I DO admit things have improved.. And I hope things continue to improve. But one has to keep things in perspective. Pakistan has hit high growth before as well only to plummit once again. We have to keep a sharp eye out for problems such as these.
I dont like to be a downer, I dont want to mess up anyones day, but we have to understand the challenges Pakistan is facing along with the benefits aswell..
I for one will wait and see, which is the best thing to do.. I praise Pakistans achievments so far but I will wait and see.

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I honestly hope your right, and that things are still bright, but there are many things that are worrying me and many others I should add...
There are many good things that are coming up such as the Banking sector, which is perhaps the most vibrant in all of South Asia and surgence of the private sector... Also the Musharaf govts higher education policies are also getting some praise... So, like I said, lets wait and see.

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No one has doubted that money has flown into Pak since 9/11, and as with any govt, there have been some good things done in the last eight years.

But are there enough structural reforms and changes to fundamental issues to last beyond the piont when the US dump's Pakistan?

With simple and crucial factors like a huge crime rate(esp in the commercial capital Karachi), corruption as bad as it always was, etc, etc, we are we always have been, with current 'figures' propped up by the war on Terror, espounded by those living thousands of miles away, while those in Pakistan tell you the vastly different reality outside their front door.

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Read the article..The SHARE in the textile sector has come down..That means that other industries have improved, and the textile sector forms less of the proportion of exports.

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I am not gona argue with you but recommend a good read something like this.

Bingham points out that the rosier outlook is not just the result of outsiders’ largesse. Gen Musharraf’s “bold policies have been well executed by his team”. Pakistan has raised some $5 billion from privatisations since 1999, including selling 80 percent of the banking sector that was in state hands. Telecoms, utilities and assets in oil and gas have been put on the block, with more than a dozen large deals to come. Independent regulators have been set up, tax reforms pursued and a free press allowed to blossom. These reforms have facilitated Pakistan’s return to international markets, raising a $500 million, five-year Eurobond in 2004, six years after the Standard & Poor’s agency rated its debt in “selective default” after nuclear tests. The Karachi Stock Exchange is in turbo-charge mode, its leading index growing sixfold since 2002, the best return of any stock market in the region.

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per world bank assessments, pak is on the right path, has set up the right policies, and has set up the right framework for growth.

I am a messneger here too..