Load shedding

[firenze]

Re: Load shedding

@Silaaj

From what I understand, there is no issue with power generation and supply. The PPP govt is simply using this as a weapon against other parties, specially PML-N in punjab. They hold back oil payments to PSO, thus causing oil supply to stop to power plants, and power generation to go down.They stop power supply, and gradually make it worse. When people come out on the streets, they make the payments to PSO, and then have 2 arguments, 1 to belittle PML-N, and 2 to put PPP on a high pedestal.

1. Provinces have been given the right to generate their own power. And PML-N has done nothing to increase power generation in Punjab, hence its a failure.
2. PPP has come to the rescue by giving Punjab additional power from the center.

If you remember, after a horrific months worth of load shedding, Zardari yesterday ordered the resolution of power supply in 48 hours, after people were heavily out on the streets. If you remember, this drama also took place a couple of months back, in the exact same fashion.

This is how the PPP works. Their mantra is, roti, kapra aur makaan. And their principle is to keep these things away from the public, so that they can continue to use them as their slogan in each election.

nice fantasy but no its not like that.
couple of reasons why this problem will not solve until 2025, technical & non-technical reasons are as such:

technical:

1. Insufficient installed generating capacity
2. Transmission system unable to transmit the greater load now imposed upon it
   3 Grid Stations and related equipment unable to carry the load imposed.
3. Distribution System was built to carry a smaller power and hence unable to cater to existing demands

non technical:

1. Population, industrial growth & war on terror.
2. Revolving debt crises which is reaching over 400 bn (Mashallah sey)
3. over 50% of energy being produced by oil & gas. did you ever bother to look at the oil prices in last three years? no.3 directly related to no.2.
4. Line loses (24% highest in the world) & electricity theft (17%)? no.4 is also directly related to no.2.
5. Failure to forecast and plan for the future, when Pakistan economy was growing at the rate of over 7% from 2000 to 2007
6. No new Transmission/Distribution networks & grid stations setup in first half of last decade.
7. Unexpectedly rapid growth of load (just look at the figures of electric stuff installation in Pakistan, you will be blown away) - Pakistan electronics market grown annually by 13.3% from last 10 years.

solutions:

1. wind energy - plants are being built by private sector over 1500 MW of wind energy in the pipelines but they will be online by 2020.
2. solar energy - a medium term solution, setup small solar power plants near villages where still over 50% of population reside to fulfil there needs, it will require proper planning and quite a lot of funds .. we are talking about 5 to 10 years.
3. In the long term ..we have to move away from oil/gas towards coal, US (56%) & China (81%) producing from coal respectivily and Pakistan is at pitiful number of 0.79% - we can raise this to 30% if we can found 30$ billion investments in next 15 years.
4. In next 10 years three huge dams will become part of hydro-generation system . .but then our population & apetite for energy will also two fold.

conclusion, even Pakistan get on the right track today.. the load shedding will not over by 2025 or 2030.