Following up from a couple of other threads, lets have some visual on stocks and crypto. Whatever is going on.
And lets explain easily for newbies, myself included.
Is Bitcoin still a buy?
What strategy should one adopt going to buy stocks?
Bitcoin is not legal tender and not governed by any Govt and in the end could become illegal and there will be a lot of pain, as Warren Buffet said look for a good business and than invest in it for long term, do thorough research and dont get caught in frnzy. I have lost millions in stocks, never saw anyone who became rich long term doing it. Real Estate is the way to go.
My rules for financial trading:
DO NOT buy into stocks or any financial trading instrument based on the advice of other people. Always do your own research. Learning to read candle charts and historical data will give you some idea of where the market is heading.
A million dollar portfolio vs. a $10k portfolio will net very different results, i.e. a 5% return on a million dollars is $50k, where as a 5% return on $10k is $500.
Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Always be mindful of losses. Also, losses occur only when you choose to close a position lower than your buy in. If you hold the position long enough, it will eventually give you a decent return, 9/10.
Always keep liquidity available, to be able to buy the dip.
Pull out your initial investment as fast as you can. Open all future trades with profits. Invest personal monies only when you are confident there is a market correction, so that you may buy the dips. For example, bitcoin (BTC) was as low as $4.8k in March, 2020, so a $25k investment into BTC would've netted you $277k when BTC hit its all time high, last month.
Depends on whether you wish to trade or invest. If you’re looking to trade, then BTC can net you decent returns only if you have a significant enough portfolio, i.e. 7 figures and higher, As I mentioned in my previous post, 5% of a million dollars is $50k whereas 5% of $10k is $500.
If you are willing to invest, i.e. accumulate, then by all means. But remember, BTC has to fall, to then rise again. Speculators predict a possible market correction sometime in September of this year. If BTC hits $20K, it would be criminal not to buy.
Any DeFi instrument would would not be accepted as legal tender for now, as it goes against the traditional fiat model. However, even with a centralized currency model, we still have rampant money laundering.
On the other hand, traditional investors are putting billions into crypto.
Warren Buffett is an aging dinosaur, he will never accept cryptocurrencies as a mainstream source of finance. He claims cryptocurrencies have no value, but in today’s world, value is highly subjective. Value of something is whatever you are willing to pay for it, for example, Michael Jordan’s game worn pair of Jordan’s sold for an insane $600k. Ferrari’s 250 GTO’s regularly bring in excess of $50m/each at auctions, even though they are just a ton and a bit of sheet metal.
Research is key. I made most of my money trading in the last 9 years. 80% of my portfolio is cryptocurrency, half of it is in bitcoin. While I have lost a lot of money, I’ve made a lot more than I have lost, almost 10 fold. As a result, I day trade for a living. Also, I forced my dad into early retirement and invested most of his money into Shariah compliant ETF’s and he has been living off the annual returns which are very close to 7 figures/p.a.
Yes, there was a time when losing money in the market very easy, but thanks to the internet, there is a wealth of knowledge and information available. You can make a lot of money if you know what you’re doing.
While I agree that real estate is always a safe bet, it’s usually out of range for most people.
To each their own, I believe in fundamentals and sound business plans, risk taking by adventurous bank executives had cost investors trillions in most Americans lost majority of their life savings in the financial meltdown, yes there might be stock market millionaires but I haven’t met any, most of my family members lost tens of millions. If you can’t spend 5 percent in real estate, you shouldn’t be buying stocks. My 18 year old will buy his first investment house this year
I guess. The end goal is to be financially independent.
What is the R.O.I. like on real estate in Canada? I hear the Chinese have been buying everything they can get their hands on.
Generation X is not money focused and they are pursuing their passions instead of money. The most valuable thing in life is time and relationships and Gen X gets it. Rents in my city are around 7 percent of properties with secondary suites, my 18 year will mortgage 95 percent and if property doubles in 5 years he will make 1700 percent on his initial investment. REITs ROI is 10.5 percent. My second wifes parents own 300 plus houses, malls, taxi plates in NY and her late father made all the money in investment properties. I mostly look at price to rent ratios and would not invest in REITS as you dont get advantage of leveraging with mortgage. My boys boss has 26 properties, he is just a working stiff and was able to do that.
Most billionaires work in 80s, even 90s and work till they die. Wonder why they dont quit their work. I made sure my kids end goal is not money but happiness, health and relationships and sense of belonging and to be kind and good members of society.
I’m impressed that the value of real estate can double in 5 years, especially in a country like Canada. Its not the same in the U.S. The only countries I can surely say that I have seen real estate doubling in value in less than a decade are Singapore & Pakistan.
All I wanted from life was not having to wake up in the morning and take $hit from my superiors at work. You see, the thing is, I cannot be answerable to anyone, so I made sure that I am not answerable to anyone. The money I make, Alhumdulillah is good enough for me to pass through life without complaining. I make my own hours, I work from home, I spend most of my time among friends and family.
Being a billionaire should never be the end goal. However, having enough to live life the way you want, should.
It doesn’t double every 5 years, it stays stagnant for many years and then doubles in a short period, we stayed stagnant in my city for 13 years and now it is very hectic and my guess and many industry people think that it will double soon as it did in 2006. In Canada we have really good work environment, my boss is really nice and I love what I do. It is important to do what you are passionate about
Also as per USA, my sister had purchased a home in Orange County, I am thinking 15 to 20 years ago and has quadrupled in price.
I've a question regarding ETF. What are these exactly (like examples), and what should we look for in order to invest in one?
They are not good long term investments, they re adjust the price every month and there is erosion. I would only do it for short term. They have long, short, double long and double short, you can buy oil, gas, Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, technology transportation etc. You need to first decide if you are going to be value, growth or momentum. I frankly feel the market is overpriced. Market goes up when interest rates low and goes down when interest rates rise. I would buy homebuilders, lumber companies, building materials right now. Home building is going crazy.
Exchange traded funds, or ETF’s are pools of various different types of investments such as stocks, bonds, commodities and in some cases even crypto’s. However, Shariah compliant ETF’s avoid commodities & bonds for obvious reasons, and they only invest in stocks from companies that have an acceptable debt to income ratio, and are not involved in industries that are detrimental to human wellbeing, such as adult entertainment, weapons, alcohol, long term debt, etc… Also, Sharia compliant ETF’s have a variable rate of return p.a.
Islamic ETF’s are good for long-term, only if you’ve got a few million dollars just sitting in the bank, losing their value overtime. But diversification of your portfolio is always important, never put all your eggs in one basket. A good mix of other sources of income, and etf returns is the way to go. In my dad’s case, its real estate along with ETF returns, and Alhumdulillah he is living a very comfortable life, quite the opposite of what it was just a few years ago where he would have to spend all of his energy and effort trying to run his company, just to end up earning not a whole lot more than he currently does.
European Shariah compliant ETF’s are the most steady, they have been giving out good returns despite the market being highly volatile right now. iShares, HANetf & Wahed are some of the funds that have been performing the best in the last 4 years, with iShares returning an average of 7% p.a. since 2017. 2021 has been really good so far but that is because of the lowered interest rates by the central banks, which has lead to increased borrowing, hence the term increased market volatility. Mind you, in the traditional sense, all of these gains can quickly go south if the market crashes this year, however, Islamic ETF’s won’t be affected too badly as the people behind them are careful not to invest in companies that have liquidity problems, i.e. above average debt to income ratio, the types of companies suffer the most during a market correction.
Lastly, please, I cannot stress this enough; always talk to a professional before investing into any market instrument, always invest at your own risk and never trade with leverage.
Thank you for all this detail. I needed that.
These days i’m noticing the economy boards focusing a lot on investing in ETFs thats why i was more interested.
Whats a good platform to look into islamic ETFs?
And thanks for the last tip about talking to professional. The only problem here is, how to know someone who is a real expert as well as not stealing money outta your pocket? I was contacted by some of the self-claimed “experts” who asked me they can suggest me investments in stocks etc only if i make a certain payment to them (which sounded fishy so i passed)
@SID_NY Here is a great article.
Highly Volatile Environments Erode Value
It has almost become common street knowledge that holding a leveraged ETF in a market with high volatility and a horizontal direction can destroy the share value. The erosion in asset value has become so well known that it has spawned many names: “leveraged decay” and “volatility drag” to name a few — all of which point to the dangers of holding leveraged ETFs long term.
The charts below shows six distinct horizontal markets with varying levels of volatility. In the bottom right box are the returns of the index, the 2x ETF and the 3x ETF. As you can see, market environments with higher volatility that continue over time have the largest negative impact on leveraged ETFs.
https://etfdb.com/media/W1siZiIsIjIwMTUvMTAvMDYvNGFhbTF2ajU3N19MZXZlcmFnZWRfRVRGX2NoYXJ0cy5wbmciXSxbInAiLCJ0aHVtYiIsIjc1MHhcdTAwM2UiXV0/Leveraged ETF charts.png
While it is true that leveraged ETFs do erode in value during market environments with high volatility and a horizontal direction, the amount is relatively small over a 25-day time frame. If the horizontal high-volatility market environment continued for a substantial amount of time — say holding longer than a year — then we would see a significantly larger erosion in share value.
Leveraged ETFs Underperformed in 2008
Between its inception date (in June 2006) and October 2015, the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO A), the 2x S&P 500 ETF, underperformed the S&P 500 most of the time. However, to date, the overall increase in value is about the same at 57%.
Leveraged ETFs are designed to be highly sensitive to daily changes in the underlying index. So when the index plummets, like in 2008, the drawdowns of the ETF (if bullish like SSO) will be substantial. For example, from January to December 2008 the drawdown was 67.6%.
For investors in leveraged ETFs, drawdowns of this size mean that getting back to “par value” will be extremely difficult. Even though SSO was gaining 2x the S&P 500 after this drawdown, it took a long while, about five years, before it was able to make up its losses.
The Fees Will Drag Down Overall Investment Value
All ETFs charge management fees for providing the service of constructing and managing the ETF’s day-to-day operations. Leveraged products generally charge more than regular ETFs. A good rule of thumb is the more complicated the ETF, the larger the fee.
The longer an investor holds an ETF, the more fees he or she will have to pay. However, compared to mutual funds, ETFs (even leveraged ones), still offer great value when it comes to fees.
Extremely Long Holding Times Can Destroy Value
Using the classic example of “random walk”-generated stock data, we can estimate the erosion of value of a leveraged ETF on a portfolio over extremely long periods of time. For this study we randomly generated 25 years of “stock index return data” and broke it into cohorts that range between extremely lucky ETF investors, typical investors, and extremely unlucky ETF investors.
https://etfdb.com/media/W1siZiIsIjIwMTUvMTAvMDYvOTNmaWdiZXRic19Fcm9zaW9uX29mX1BvcnRmb2xpb19WYWx1ZS5wbmciXSxbInAiLCJ0aHVtYiIsIjc1MHhcdTAwM2UiXV0/Erosion of Portfolio Value.png
By looking at the “typical” columns we can clearly see that holding leveraged ETFs in a “random walk” environment over the long term destroys asset value. By using this type of analysis, it becomes clear why the names “leveraged decay” and “volatility drag” have survived to describe the long-term holding of leveraged ETFs.
The Bottom Line
Leveraged ETFs are best used for investments with a clearly defined directional environment and with holding periods of less than one year. The chance for a massive drawdown, and the subsequent inability to get out of the drawdown, is simply too large of a risk for a long-term retail investor.
Leveraged ETFs should be used in trading situations where there is a strong conviction in market direction and with a clearly defined trading strategy. Simply buying and holding leveraged ETFs in an uncertain market environment will not benefit the long-term investor and will negatively impact their returns.
Image courtesy of cooldesign at FreeDigitalPhotos.net
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Stock markets work on sector rotations, you are a smart man and look around you and find which sector will turn. I am seeing a boom in housing so I will look into that. Good rule is if every layman is talking about something than you dont buy it Warren Buffet says buy when there is blood on street and people are fleeing the market. When everyone is jumping in, you have to run away. To begin with you can go to a bank and invest in mutual funds, they will look at your profile and put you in the right mutual funds. ETFs are more for day trading.
You are an IT guy, invest in something you are an expert in. Never seen a stock market millionaire but came across hundreds of Real Estate millionaires.
There is Hadith that Muslims should not live in non muslim countries and yet people choose to migrate here, if we take religion literally than every single corporation is effected by interest, they issue interest bearing bonds, they buy interest bearing bonds, they pay interest, they collect interest, they pay taxes that funds military. Who decides what is Shariah compliant?
EV and pharma (including Cannabis) is the way to go right now IMO
thanks for the article, its interesting.
Its a good point that you’ll be paying a lot of fees to these ETFs while the ROI may not be that much. And that gave me this idea (and i’m sure im not the first one) that why not we look into different ETFs’ portfolio and invest on our own wherever they are investing.
For example, I was looking at a famouse etf, ARK and one of their branch only invests in companies like Microsoft, Tesla etc. We can invest in those directly and see how it goes ?!