In his book “The Clash of Civilisation”, Samuel Huntingdon identifies that the biggest obstacle to the transformation of the Muslim world into a major power block is that there is no country capable of leading it, should it be united.
Huntingdon proposed that there ware only 3 states that have the potential to lead a united Muslim world, but they all have serious problems that renders them unsuitable.
Turkey
Turkey is the first nation that he proposed. Being in NATO, it has arguably the most powerful conventional military force in the Muslim world, as well as being stable and accepted as a friendly nation by all major world powers. Its past history as the leader of the Muslim world leans in its favour as well.
Counterbalancing this, is the fact that during the last few decades of Turkey’s leadership of the Muslim world, its Arab subjects were mistreated and as such there residual political resentment towards Turkey, which would make many arab countries unwilling to come under Turkish influence again.
Iran
Iran was the second nation that he proposed. It’s vast and underdeveloped oil reserves give it incredible economic potential, it has a budding nuclear programme, strong armed forces and an economy that has proven to be surprisingly robust (ie hasn’t collapsed completely) despite not being able to trade with the world’s biggest economy. Iran has also managed to tread a truly independent path since its revolution.
Counting against Iran is the fact that being Shia, it would probably not be acceptable to the Sunni world as a source of leadership.
Pakistan
Pakistan was the final country Huntingdon proposed. Primarily due to its friendship with all Muslim countries, the similarity of its relgious beliefs in the form of Islam practised to the rest of the Muslim world, and its military strength he viewed it as being a strong candidacy.
But he rejected it as being a truly valid leader, on the basis that the Sunni/Shia schism in Pakistani society was too strong a source of instability to enable it to lead.
Huntingdon’s conclusion was that the Muslim world would remain, for the next 200 years at leats, so weakened by its inability to find a a suitable leader that it will be forced into alliance with China to balance out the power of the West and restore equilibrium to international geopolitics.
So what do you think? Is the future that bleak for finding a source of leadership for the Ummah?