*Why Pakistan should win *
Kamran Abbasi
12 March, 2004
Little known fact: apart from no Test wins, India has only won three one-day internationals against Pakistan in Pakistan. Not a record that predicts great success. Might this tour be different? India’s batting has not been so strong since the middle 1980s, Sourav Ganguly’s team boasts a clutch of genuine fast bowlers, and Pakistan has learned how to lose at home—a rare phenomenon until the end of the last century. This will be a tough one-day series for both teams—no other contest in cricket history has attracted such global and local interest—but I expect Pakistan to prevail. Here’s why:
1 India’s batting is glorious, perhaps the best in the world—in Test cricket. But the wondrous lustre of these regal batsmen blinds India’s selectors to a fatal weakness. One-day cricket is designed for innovation and unorthodoxy, particularly in batsmanship and particularly on batting wickets—which, whatever the noises from PCB and groundsman Andy Atkinson, are what to expect for this series. Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman, and even Sachin Tendulkar—now that he has lost his dash—are simply too orthodox to break the shackles in the middle of an Indian innings.
On a decent batting track even a Shahid Afridi, Imran Nazir, or Abdul Razzaq can outperform the most highly acclaimed batsman in the world, especially in a 10 over burst of ballistic hitting. Virender Sehwag, Ganguly, and Yuvraj Singh may match Pakistan’s hitters, but Ganguly will struggle against Pakistan’s fast men, which leaves too little blasting power on India’s side.
2 India’s bowling is as green as its batting is golden. Success has come against Pakistan historically through canny medium-pacers frustrating Pakistan’s batsmen and high-class spin bowlers. This Indian one-day squad possesses neither of these components. The reputation of India’s fast men is built on one-day victories under lights and helpful conditions. Zaheer Khan, Ashish Nehra, and Irfan Pathan have potential but in truth they are untested. Too much is being made of them too early without enough evidence of their class. I guess that this inflated reputation and weight of expectation will be their undoing.
And, unfortunately this Indian squad does not include an international quality spinner to speak of, other than Sachin if he put his mind to it. A failing of Indian cricket has been an unrealistic appraisal of its bowling might. A fair measure of honest self-judgement and insight would probably produce better results for India, but that is unlikely to happen with the truly unprecedented hype surrounding this series.
3 Shoaib Akhtar—if fit.
Yet, two factors could find me eating my words. First, the two day-night matches will give India’s bowlers a sniff of a chance swinging the ball under lights. Second, is the unknown fix factor. We delude ourselves if we believe that Indian and Pakistani players have been falsely accused over the last two decades. Let’s hope that what we see is what we get—and if that is the case Pakistan should continue their home dominance over India, despite Mr Ganguly’s disregard for history.