Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Fourth Year completed, by all means there will be elections in next 10-12 months provided some self-righteous kind of people do not push and help implementing an un-elected technocratic setup!!!

The prime area of concern for the newly elected govt should be as follows:

  1. Economy

The inflation is double digit figure in Pakistan from last 4/5 years, first thing first, in order to provide relief to the people of Pakistan, the newly elected govt should do the following to provide a quick relief and long-term stability to the economic condition of Pakistan:

a) Bring the Interest rate to single digit in first year and gradually bring it down to 4-5%.

b) Reduce the price of diesel, currently govt is making some Rs 35+/per litre on it, diesel prices should cut down by Rs: 30 / liter and should introduce a law by which the margin on the same should not exceed by Rs 5/liter. From 2nd year onwards, bring the price of kerosine oil, and Petrol to the realistic figures.

c) Income tax to everyone who have an yearly income above Rs 350,000, in order to eliminate corruption, introduce a flat rate applicable to all, once the culture develops, change it accordingly, this income tax should be applicable to all the sectors including agriculture.

  1. Power & Energy

a short term and long-term strategy to be implemented in this sector, the primary aim should be to provide cheapest electricity to all.

  1. Small RUN-OF-RIVER projects, these projects can be completed in 3-4 years and can provide Pakistan with 5000-6000 MW.

  2. Wind, Solar projects are only successful if the machinery / panels are produced locally, otherwise these projects can be more expensive then current fossil fuel power projects. So the govt should provide incentives to the business men to set up factories manufacturing the wind machines and solar panels. The solar panel is hut-industry in Bangladesh and in some parts of India… provide incentive and get some alternate source of energy for the remote and rural areas of Pakistan.

  3. Invest in the Hydro-Power sector of Tajikistan, the country have potential to produce up to 72000MW of Hydro energy and govt to date is inviting investors in this sector. Pakistan have already signed Power Purchase Agreement with Tajik Govt but the problem is, Tajik govt does not produce enough to satisfy local demand. Few Pakistani companies are there more need to be encouraged.

  4. In the long run, convert AC to DC, i know it is an expensive project but in the long run, this conversion will bring the current line-losses from 25-30% to 5-7%…

Agriculture & Livestock

In next decade the food and food processing industry is going to be the one key element economic development through out the globe, unfortunately, like other sectors, this sector has been neglected by almost all the govts. the next should prioritize this sector which is 50 or 60% of Pakistani economy. Below are the main areas Govt should focus:

  1. Food Processing Industry should be given prime focus and incentives should be given to them, this industry alone can employ almost 40% of the unemployed ( both semi-skilled and un-skilled labor) of the Pakistan not only bringing the unemployment rate down but also bringing important foreign exchange with it.

  2. The agriculture business, such harvesting etc should be given the status of Industry and Govt of Pakistan should focus on getting heavy yield, by both increasing the land area and by using latest bio-technology and other latest related industrial tools.

If govt works on this sector and provide the incentives it provides to the other industrial sector, it can increase the net out-put and exports for the country, remember next ten years, the many of the traditional products might get replaced by the newer one or may have less demand considering the global economic situation. The only way to increase the export bill is either to have high tech products ( which is only possible for Pakistan in next 10 -15 years if worked seriously and continuously) or the have basic necessities such as food.

Infra-Structure

Last not least, the govt should invest heavily in the infrastructure projects, laying new railway lines, speedy rail network and better roads linking all the major cities to each other directly should be the task the govt will have in its hand.

Political Front

Make FATA a province, having its own provincial assembly and quota in the Senate. ( rest of the provinces are not as easy as it is being said)

If elected govt can work on above, the next one can take things forward from there…

PS: above is not matter of national security, hence not a secret, would be good if more parties can take piece from above and do something about it…

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

The issues/challenges the next government will face will be huge:

1) Governance: The governance needs to be improved, and the policies be implemented which are good for the country and not to satisfy some mafias.

**2) Corruption: **Corruption in big projects/corporations run in billions of rupees which need to be eliminated.

3) Inflation: Like you mentioned in your post, inflation needs to be controlled so as to give some relief to the middle class/poor which has been hit very badly during the past few years.

4) Economy: Policies need to be formulated keeping in view Pakistan's economy and how it can be further improved, this will not only increase Pakistani foreign currency reserves, but also generate jobs, hence a win win situation for the country.

5) Energy: The policies need to be made keeping in view our forecasts for the next 20 years. Small hydel projects need to be developed to produce cheap electricity, coupled with some projects from alternate sources. Smart metering can be employed especially for big businesses to ensure minimum pilferage of energy and increasing the profitability of WAPDA/KESC. On the whole the line losses need to be controlled for better future of the country. Thar Coal project and exploration of gas from Zin Block need to be carried out.

Work on pipelines like TAP, IP need to be taken forward as in the future they will provide Pakistan with much needed transit fees.

6) Taxation: The tax net needs to be expanded to include each and every individual over a threshold salary/wages.

7) Agriculture: better water management techniques to increase the area of cultivation, and latest techniques to be employed to increase the yield of agriculture.

8) Law and Order: Each and everything is dependent on good Law and order situation in the country. We need to see how we will end the war in FATA, and Balochistan and how we will bring those areas in the main stream.

FCR needs to be abolished in FATA, and a new province be created. Reforms should be carried out to include those areas in the jurisdiction of Supreme Court/High Court and independence of political parties to operate there. After the war end in FATA, by bringing the people in the mainstream we can ensure that a similar situation does not erupt in the future.

Similarly, Balochistan operation should be stopped and a genuine dialog be started with the Baloch to try end this standoff.

9) Legislation: I believe we need a genuine effort in which some truth and reconciliation is carried out between the different provincial entities, and some legislation be devised (with consensus) which ensures that in the future there wouldnt be grievances of the smaller provines towards Punjab. Each and every Pakistani should feel a part of the country!

10) Health and Education: The policies of the government should give special emphasis on these two sectors as they are very important for the future of the country.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

For me, the sector that needs reforms and major influx of funds on emergency basis is Education. Other things would follow.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

The most the next government will need is sincerity. If it has it, everything would be taken care of.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

sorry no magic wands, no govt can educate the masses in just five years... specially when the first question in the front of the masses is how to put food on the table!!!

development and education comes side by side, you develop your agriculture sector and hurdle in educating the rural class will be gone with with the wind of poverty... it is long process and due course economic development is a must,...

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

^ Almost all economists agree that economic development follows better education and not the other way around. You can come up with fantastic policies to improve agriculture, for example, and yet with a few people educated enough to implement them, it would all go waste.

From Adam Smith to Alfred Marshal.... all agree on one thing:

"There is no extravagance more prejudicial to growth of national wealth than that wasteful negligence which allows genius that happens to be born of lowly parentage to expend itself in lowly work. No change would conduce so much to a rapid increase of material wealth as an improvement in our schools, and especially those of the middle grades, provided it be combined with an extensive system of scholarships, which will enable the clever son of a working man to rise gradually from school to school till he has the best theoretical and practical education which the age can give...."

A Marshall. Principles of Economics (8th Edition)Macmillan, London (1920)

P.S. Remember, I am not saying that other sectors are not important. Just saying that education, that we have neglected for so many decades, deserves first priority if we need sustained economic development in long run.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Include above list is the foreign policy, future relatiions with US, India and other countries. At present Pakistan almost stands alone. Also in this list you should include the role of army in the politics of Pakistan. Also in this list include the fair judicial system and civil audit of defense expenditures. Army and ISI should work under political government and not vice versa which is the present situation, last but not the least effective implementation of birth control. Population of Pakistan should decline in the coming decade rather than following exponential inreament in the population.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

In theory yes, in practice no.. the problem with most economist is that they speak on assumptions and not on reality...

for e.g., go to Central Africa, tell them, you brought education with you and there is nothing else to which can feed them or help them put food on the table at the end of the day, you will find no one interested in the education, doesn't matter how important it may be...

Pakistan is the same, people send their kids to madrassas not because they are religious or they want their kids to grow up as a religious scholar, 90% case is, they send because they know they'll get their, they will have food and shelter...

Education, no one can deny the importance of it, but if we look at the basic pyramid of Human cycle then first comes food and shelter then comes accessories, sorry to say, in our country education is still an accessory many cannot afford to have... but the moment anyone out of that lot gets some financial freedom that same person who couldn't afford to see the school in during his time gets his kids admitted in the best possible school...

So if we develop our agriculture sector which covers almost 50% of over population, then you are giving 50% population a chance to get financial freedom and strength hence will be able to send their kids to school or college.

I am not denying the importance of education but being in the business of developing under-developed countries for some time now, i have seen that education only works when one their infrastructure to support it, otherwise i can also quote example of Philippines and Indonesia and many other far-eastern countries where the post-graduates works as a waiter or some low profile job through out their career...

In away, we both are on same page, with little difference that your preference ratio for education to economic development is 60:40 and mine is 40:60...

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

I have tried to follow the Turkish model here, where the Civilian Turk govt never touched the status-quo forces until they won the credibility and reputation and moral support of the people.. if the next govt can do above, leaving everything aside or paying little attention to it, i can bet that the same govt will be re-elected in the next general elections and then would the time when that civil govt can put everyone in their place... going to for big shots while have not reputation or reputation of being the crook of the decade won't help the case here...

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Just 1 issue: Corruption at all levels of society. Fix that and everything else will fall into place.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Pakistan was doing well in the past, but loss of bangladesh and then disastrous nationalization and quota policies destroyed the economy. But above all, rule of law and merit should be the backbone of all policies.

It reminds me of a famous dialogue that happened between an alim of baghdad and a mongol ruler after they took bagdad in the thirteenth century. Mongols always used to learn from the societies they ruled, so he called for some scholars and asked them a question. He said, "what would you prefer: a society where there is justice but it is run by a non-muslim or a society where you ruler is a authoritarian muslim (like the caliph was) but it is based on injustice?". Now, many scholars were perplexed about answering him (mongols weren't even people of the book and had been savages to muslims), but one scholar did step forward and say, "I'd rather live in a society where there is justice with a non-muslim than one where there is no justice at all.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

I think in past Mohammad Khan Junejo followed that model in past, was humiliated and kicked out by mardood Zia-ul-Haq. No model is going to succeed unless army becomes professional army out of poltics and corrupt business ventures.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Muhammad Khan Junejo practiced the politics of keeping everyone one happy, everyone other than the people of Pakistan and he paid the price for that... what i am trying to focus over here is, improve the living standards of people, provide them with right means to make money and many other social evils will die itself...

One person above said, kill corruption, ideologically, right thing but in practice how would you do that??? in west were most of the non-corrupt govt exist and in east where the most corrupt govt exist, what is the core difference between the two?? in west, most of the Pakistanies, who belongs to most corrupt country in the world behaves and normally follows the law??? why, because in west there are means to make good living.. govt provide ample opportunities to grow and develop.... in east, especially in the under developed or developing countries, there are no other mean available to make good or sometime basic living!!!

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

If i was to create a policy paper on what areas to focus on in Pakistan the following would be the areas of focus:

  1. Education.
  2. Health
  3. Rule of Law

Nothing else. Foreign Policy can rot in hell. So can the war on terror. So can everything else. These three issues tackled over a period of 5 years would do enough to build a basis for economic growth and sustainable living.

Indonesia did it in 15 years. South Korea in 10. Taiwan in 10 etc. 10 years of solid support in Education builds a new generation who can provide the necessary economic development so badly needed.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

If we need to improve our education system and quality of the schools and syllabus, what steps to be taken:

as far as i am concerned, i guess these steps will help improving the education system

1) by law make is mandatory that all the children of civil bureaucracy and politicians/minister must study in the govt run/managed schools.

2) Increase the salary and provide more benefits to teachers of all level, this is to attract the cream of the educators towards this sector.

3) have intra-school debate, quiz, science and math competition through out the district, province and country.

more can be added...

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Add military leadership to Step 1 and extend it to universities. it would be enough to ensure quality education. The only little problem being that politicians make the laws and bureaucracy implements them.

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

I think Military regime and Pakistan railways are doing decent job when it comes to education facilities, the Army Public Schools and Pakistan Railway school are by far better than any govt school and little better than average private school registered under the local board.

I would say need to have more universities having research facilities and what we do not need in these universities is some ex-general being appointed as VC type thing...

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Agreed. But this can only achieve if army stays away from politics. Do you remember the humiliating kicking out of NS with heavy mendate?

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

See how Turkish civil govt managed to throw the Military out of the govt affairs...

First Phase of 5 years, all they did was focused on the well being of the Turkish people... lots of projects started and a country worse than our situation got on its feet in 10 years time... and when they earned good reputation in public, they not only forced some 15+ generals to resigning but also filed cases against them..

If you observe closely, the political situation of Turkey and Pakistan is not that different.. almost the same..

So i would suggest, for the first few years just focus on the real center of the power.. that is the common Pakistanies...

as for NS, had he not messed with military at that time, he could have survived....

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Re: Issues and Solutions for Next Govt

Can you further elaborate how political situation are not different between the two countries???