Sheikh Nasrallah’s popularity graph goes up, and Olmert’s takes a dive.
Olmert’s popularity plunges
Rising Israeli casualties and constant Hizbollah rocket attacks have sharply eroded public support in Israel for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his defence minister, an opinion poll showed on Friday. The survey in the Haaretz newspaper found only 48 percent of Israelis were satisfied with Olmert’s performance compared with popularity ratings of more than 75 percent in polls taken in the early stages of fighting against the Lebanese group. Public support for Defence Minister Amir Peretz fell from 65 percent to 37 percent, the survey showed.
Commentary accompanying the survey said the continuing hostilities, which began on July 12 after Hizbollah seized two soldiers in a cross-border raid, mounting Israeli casualties and daily rocket attacks were to blame for the drops in popularity. The war has killed 122 Israelis and at least 1,011 people in Lebanon. Hizbollah has fired more than 3,400 rockets at northern Israel in the war. The rockets have paralysed life in a region that is home to one million people, driving one third of them to flee while many others are holed up indoors or in bomb shelters.
Against a backdrop of intensified international diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting, only some 20 percent of those polled said Israel could claim victory if the war ended now. The poll found 39 percent of Israelis supported a decision by Olmert’s security cabinet on Wednesday to send troops deeper into southern Lebanon to battle Hizbollah, an operation since put on hold to give diplomacy more time. But between 26 percent and 28 percent said they preferred either to continue the current level of fighting, along with the pursuit of a diplomatic solution to the conflict, or strive for an immediate ceasefire. Olmert, who won election in March, heads the centrist Kadima party. Peretz is the leader of the centre-left Labour Party, Olmert’s main partner in a coalition government.
**Olmert cannot remain in the prime minister’s office **
By Ari Shavit
Ehud Olmert may decide to accept the French proposal for a cease-fire and unconditional surrender to Hezbollah. That is his privilege. Olmert is a prime minister whom journalists invented, journalists protected, and whose rule journalists preserved. Now the journalists are saying run away. That’s legitimate. Unwise, but legitimate. However, one thing should be clear: If Olmert runs away now from the war he initiated, he will not be able to remain prime minister for even one more day. Chutzpah has its limits. You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power. You cannot bury 120 Israelis in cemeteries, keep a million Israelis in shelters for a month, wear down deterrent power, bring the next war very close, and then say - oops, I made a mistake. That was not the intention. Pass me a cigar, please.
There is no mistake Ehud Olmert did not make this past month. He went to war hastily, without properly gauging the outcome. He blindly followed the military without asking the necessary questions. He mistakenly gambled on air operations, was strangely late with the ground operation, and failed to implement the army’s original plan, much more daring and sophisticated than that which was implemented. And after arrogantly and hastily bursting into war, Olmert managed it hesitantly, unfocused and limp. He neglected the home front and abandoned the residents of the north. He also failed shamefully on the diplomatic front. Still, if Olmert had come to his senses as Golda Meir did during the Yom Kippur War, if he had become a leader, established a war cabinet and called the nation to a supreme effort that would change the face of the battle, a penetrating discussion of his failures could be postponed. But in blinking first over the past 24 hours, he has become an incorrigible political personality. Therefore, the day Nasrallah comes out of his bunker and declares victory to the whole world, Olmert must not be in the prime minister’s office. Post-war battered and bleeding Israel needs a new start and a new leader. It needs a real prime minister.
**One newspaper reported a series of acrimonious exchanges between Mr Olmert and his deputy, the veteran Shimon Peres. The Maariv daily said that the two clashed notably during Wednesday’s Security Cabinet meeting when ministers approved a wider ground war.
“Peres criticised the management of the crisis, the lack of thought, the fact that everyone blabs to the media and informs Hezbollah when there will be an operation,” Maariv said.**
Time has already proven all the predictions made by the pro-israeli’s on this forum in the first few days have been dead wrong. Israeli PM’s from from Rabin to Sharon do tend to have a painful end, though.
Leave him alone, it gives him pride and makes him feel good to see the Israelis tweaked. The funny thing is, the Israelis will not sit still. The next inevitable conflict with Hizbullah will be different.
I don't think there is likely to be another war after this one. Hezbollah drew a line in the sand back in 2000 when it stated that it would disarm when all of Lebanon was free of Israel, including the Shebaa farms.
The Shebaa farms are of very limited strategic advantage to Israel. The main reason Israel will not leave is symbolic - it does not want to convey that force can make Israel leave any territory that Israel claims as its own. In the end, that's a concession I think Israel will be forced to make.
I see:
1) Israel pushes into and occupies South Lebanon, casualties mount from Hezbollah guerrilla attacks, Israel continues losing international support, reluctantly the USA pressures Israel to do something.
2) Fouad Siniora sticks to his guns that Israel must leave Lebanon before a ceasefire, including the Shebaa farms before he acts against Hezbollah. Hizbollah signs onto this deal
3) The Lebanese army moves into South Lebanon with Israel still there. Israel withdraws from Lebanon including Sheba Farms.
4) Pressure is now on Hezbollah to stick to its word that it will disarm.
5) Hizbollah disarms; it's 2,000-strong regular corps gets absorbed into Lebanese Army and thus Hezbollah gains brownie points for contributing so much weaponry to the Lebanese Army. The new Shia dominated army presses the government for closer ties to Iran.
6) PM Siniora presses for the USA to remove Hezbollah from terrorist list; like IRA members were pardoned.
7) Hezbollah capitalises on its new-found popularity. Last election, it fielded some Christian candidates ; now it reaches out across all communities. Hezbollah aims to have a Christian Hezbollah member as President of Lebanon, Sunni Hezbollah member as PM, Shia Hezbollah member as speaker of Parliament.
Two defeats by Hezbollah in Lebanon - I don’t think they will be coming back for anymore, especially as this time they have lost really badly.
Today the IDF conceded that 30 of their state of the art tanks had been destroyed, so confirming what Hezbollah has been saying since the beginning. Once the UN resolution is passed it will confirm what people (in Israel) are saying, namely that the zionists are conceding a humiliating defeat at the hands of Hezbollah. In fact I said it would be humiliating from day one.
This morning Olmert had ordered a ground offensive, and all those folks at Fox got all excited (yet again), but just hours later he is withdrawing those troops and ready to accept that UN resolution which his people say amounts to admitting defeat at the hands of Hezbollah.
The plan is set to be accepted Sunday. Overall Operation Just Reward was a military blunder on behalf of the IDF. True this deal does put Hezbollah behind a cage and the major reasoning behind the conflict was to eliminate the immediate threat Hezbollah posed and the pressure for them to disarm will be strong.
Meanwhile Israel must prepare for a conflict with others who should have been targeted in the first place. Live and learn, Israel will be stronger because of this stumble but sadly unless the pressure is successful, Israel will return to Lebanon as it will be as Hezbollah who will once again try and drag the people on Lebanon into war. I hope the Lebanese people understand that they are being used as pawns by Hezbollah and while it’s true they support the people domestically in the south they do so in order to garner support for their terror polices. The Lebanese government will be built up so they can be the ones who provided to their people without blackmailing them into supporting dangerous and deadly agendas. While the country is devastated this had the potential to be much worse and cooler heads have after much delay finally prevailed.
hey they got rid of Rabin earlier, i wonder if sharons peace talk and land for peace stuff was the reason he got a stroke all of a sudden ..makes ya wonder ..:)
