Is North Korea Afraid of the United States?

[underthedome]

“THREATS … HAVE NO MEANING”
What’s little kim’s next move?

Bush issues new N. Korea warning
He vows ‘tougher measures’ if Pyongyang escalates standoff

CRAWFORD, Texas, May 23 — President Bush warned North Korea on Friday that it would face “tougher measures” if it takes steps to escalate its nuclear standoff with the United States.

SPEAKING AT A joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Bush said he and the Japanese leader view the nuclear crisis in “exactly the same way.”
“We will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea,” Bush said after a summit at his Texas ranch. “We will not give in to blackmail. We will not settle for anything less than the complete, verifiable and irreversible elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.”
“We are confident that our diplomatic approach will bring a peaceful solution,” he concluded. “Yet we agreed that further escalation of the situation by North Korea will require tougher measures from the international community.”
Koizumi echoed Bush’s demands, saying Pyongyang must “promptly and completely eliminate all nuclear weapons programs.”

THREATS … HAVE NO MEANING’
“North Korea will have to understand that threats and intimations have no meaning whatsoever,” the Japanese leader said.
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The White House is working methodically to line up support from North Korea’s neighbors against a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.
North Korea has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and taken steps to restart nuclear facilities it had agreed to freeze under a 1994 agreement.
The idea of meetings like Friday’s was to carefully avoid any sign of rifts that could embolden the North.
Earlier this month, Bush and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun issued a joint statement declaring they would not tolerate atomic weapons in North Korea and would consider further steps to prevent them if diplomacy fails.
“North Korea miscalculated: They thought that by acting belligerently and threatening the development of nuclear weapons, they could scare their neighbors, scare the United States and receive a reward,” White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.
‘A UNITED FRONT’
“In the course of the president’s discussions with regional leaders, including the Japanese, it’s clear that there is a united front that does not intend to reward blackmail,” he said.
At the talks in Beijing, North Korea said it would give up its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for economic aid and security guarantees.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/917032.asp?0cv=CB10

[spoon]

I was going to start my own thread with that exact title :D That other thread on North Korea is just getting too long and tired.. This might diverge from your post UTD but you stole my idea so I'll steal your thread :) anyway I keep hearing this angle of it more often nowadays..

Is North Korea afraid of America?

On the Sunday shows I heard a few people connected to the administration hint that the "Iraq model" (paraphrase. remember "Afghan model"?) will crush Korea. Their idea follows that the same kind of force structure will either gradually intimidate Baby Kim into forfeiture or, if it comes to it, can destroy North Korea altogether with a similar military success to that of Iraq (low casualties, etc). Both of these conclusions are severely flawed and potentially dangerous.

What is constantly referred to as evidence of Kim's fear is his disappearance for 50 days around the start of conflict in Iraq. They say that he feared that he was next. First of all, this is a perfectly sound thing to do in his position; there was much speak of such a thing possibly happening. But where this goes astray is the emphasis placed on it. This single peice makes up the largest chunk of evidence for Kim's crippling fear. If that were valid, well, where did Cheney go for all those days?

But aside from that, what intimidates North Korea? What can make them fear the United States? They tolerate mass starvation. They have a conventional arsenal that is just as impressive as ours for the region, and with first strike capability, possibly a more deadly one. Their economy is virtually closed, except for a Chinese corridor and some stray deals from other countries. On the economic front, they can easily survive on the black market in the remote case that we are able to close China and those strays off completely. Maslow is on his head when it comes to Kim. The North will not surrender under these kinds of pressure.

Will we crush North Korea like we did Iraq, if it comes to it? Not likely. Sure, most of the doomsday predictions for Iraq didn't come true, that's a good thing, but this is on relative scale, if the same percentage of bad comes true in North Korea as in Iraq.. you're looking at a lot more damage. Open conflict is out of the question.

Referring to UTD's article, does viewing a thing in "exactly the same way" translate to progress or impending success? No. It is not hard to agree on general terms, which is what these two did; it is a tiring pursuit to agree on details, especially with the number of parties concerned. The comments of solidarity between Koizumi and Bush are nice, but are about as meaningful as Kim's bellicosity - they are expected and rather shallow. However, to bypass such a thing would have been detrimental.

Are Kim's threats really that hollow? Pretty much. Kim will not engage in anything truly resembling an act of war until he is ready to die, which can be influenced. But the threats are not useless. The whole point of the threats are to use the status quo as a bargaining chip - it's the only one they have.

So, is Korea afraid of America? No. Kim is not as irrational as some would have us believe. And we certainly are not foolish enough to confront him with options remaining.