Apple is not the sort of stock that I would personally buy, you were the one who was keenly following it. Expectations were positive for the company but then things started going wrong for it and sentiment changed and its profit declined in 2013 as compared to 2012. For the current year and next year its profit is expected to increase by about 10% per annum. Therefore it future its debatable but in the short term if you did manage to buy it at the right price you could have made some money out of it. When the sentiment changed you have just shorted the stock and gone long on it a few months later. Or you could have averaged down and still have made money.
At the time I was focusing on emerging markets but now I am actively looking to make some investments in my own country.
I simply opened a thread on Apple stating it was overvalued. And you disagreed. And that's ok.
Hindsight is 20 20. To say one could have shorted it at a certain price and bought back at lower price is easier said than done. If you did tha let successfully more power to you.
The amount of gymnastics one plays to support ones position. Being bullish on the stock at 633 in Oct 2012. And the offering up reasons for why prediction didn't pan out.
One can't be right abt everything. But when one is wrong, way wrong, nothing wrong in acknowledging.
Apple has risen from ~ 350 at start of this year to 600, before falling to the currnet 585 level. Its market capitalization is 545 billion dollars. It comrises about 4% of the S&P 500 index. It is now a must own for most stock mutual funds. Some funds, which are not supposed to own stocks, or not supposed to own technology stocks also own it, since everyone else does.
Since ~ 1998, the following companies have had the largest market cap
GE (down from 55 to ~ 20)
Microsoft - down from ~ 50 to current 32
Cisco - down from 80 to current 20
Intel - down from ~ 40 to current 27
Exxon - down from ~ 90 to current 85]
No dividends have been considered above - thoug tech hardly paid any dividends till recently.
Other than Exxon, all the stocks in the last 14 years which have occupied the largest market cap crown ever so briefly have tumbled. Is Apple the next Tech goliath slated for a fall? Or is this time different? That is this is not longer the go-go 2000 Tech bubble type scenario?
Full discolsure - as stated earlier in other threads, I own a y-pad, and not an i-pad - so am not technically very savvy.
Since this thread opened AAPL up 40 pct in 2 yrs 10 months. Yld 1.6 Total return 45 pct.
Snp 500 up from 1245.to 1994. Or 60 pct. With 2 pct div yld. Total return 66 pct.
Apple performed d better than I expected. Still price u pay.matters. in spite of excellent operational execution it lagged snp500 in this bull mkt.
When 5his thread started aapl was 585. Now 868 split adj. 48 pct return in 3.5 yrs plus div.
Market 1360 to 2080. 53 pct
Someone recommend aapl on Oct 20 2012. Since then aapl oced from 610. While snp from 1400.
overvalued? p/e is still attractive, but superstar tech stocks go weird. why is msft still so damn cheap when you look at its p/e? :s
one way of playing the smart phones/portable do it all market is to go after the non-visible non-superstar companies that go into them anyway. armh anyone?
Apple has risen from ~ 350 at start of this year to 600, before falling to the currnet 585 level. Its market capitalization is 545 billion dollars. It comrises about 4% of the S&P 500 index. It is now a must own for most stock mutual funds. Some funds, which are not supposed to own stocks, or not supposed to own technology stocks also own it, since everyone else does.
Since ~ 1998, the following companies have had the largest market cap
GE (down from 55 to ~ 20)
Microsoft - down from ~ 50 to current 32
Cisco - down from 80 to current 20
Intel - down from ~ 40 to current 27
Exxon - down from ~ 90 to current 85]
No dividends have been considered above - thoug tech hardly paid any dividends till recently.
Other than Exxon, all the stocks in the last 14 years which have occupied the largest market cap crown ever so briefly have tumbled. Is Apple the next Tech goliath slated for a fall? Or is this time different? That is this is not longer the go-go 2000 Tech bubble type scenario?
Full discolsure - as stated earlier in other threads, I own a y-pad, and not an i-pad - so am not technically very savvy.
Since this thread opened AAPL has gone from 585 to 705 (split adjusted). So 20 pc5 gqin.Div yield now is 12 oct. Avg over the 4 yrs 1.25. 5 pct in 4 yrs. Total 25 pct return
Snp500 1400 to 1990. Or 32 pct return. And 2 0ct yld times 4. So 40 pct.
The mkt beat aaple in the last 4 years. You woukd not know that from aapl humongous mkt cap.
Good point re 4 year window - but close enough to 5 years.
The P/E 4 years back was 13 and change - from post 5 or 6 (or thereabouts). That ratio has now shrunk to 11. Or by 16 pct. (The snp 500 p to e may have been 20)
At that time, I had felt those were peak earnings. And those earnings could not increase much more. The 20 pct increase in price in spite of 16 pct decrease in p to e appears to indicate earnings has increased by 1.2 times 1.16 or 1.4 or 40 pct. Some of the increase could be due to buybacks. So maybe earnings increase 35 pct in 4 yrs. Or 8 pct per year.
Not bad. But the pundits at that time were considering AAPL undervalued because they expected 15 to 20 pct earnings growth. That was not sustainable.
Today it's p to e 11. Snp500 22. So probably not as overvalued relative to market. But with growth in eanlrnigs slowing down, this p to e may be justified.
But risk is that the GO TO STOCK of last 6 years may become pariah. Then watch out below.