Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Apple below $500 at $493.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
450.50
Let it fall tons more so I can buy it o.o
It's that post-Steve depression.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
^ spoken like a true value investor. It is down 36% from its 700$ high. $300 would get interesting.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Newton
Gravity
Apple
$439.5
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Wonder how the planned new blackberry would impact the earth bound Apple.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
So, Apple no longer the most valuable company in the world any more?
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
It never was. The pundits label companies with largest market cap as most valuable. While value investors and long term investors refer to companies that are significantly undervalued wrt prospect, potential etc as highly valuable $ for $.
Apple happened to be most EXPENSIVE when it scaled 700$/ share.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
well it is currently trading at prospective p/e of just over 10, which does not seem very high for a stock that is expected to increase its earnings by by about 15-20% in the next financial year, and will have cash approaching $200 billions.
It is now down 38% from its high of 705. And down about 30% since you first got behind it. At the same time the s&p500 is up about 10%. That is a 40% underprrformance in about 4 months.
earnings cannot grow 15 to 20% from a large base.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
well it is currently trading at prospective p/e of just over 10, which does not seem very high for a stock that is expected to increase its earnings by by about 15-20% in the next financial year, and will have cash approaching $200 billions.
Now trading at 395!. About 40% lower than when you recommended it about 4 months back. Classics case of believing in 15-20% growth off if high earnings base.
MRket meantime up about 18% over same period. That is a 58% underperformance.
Investing recommendation is one place where it is good to go back and see how various recommendations perform over time.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Apple TV is the next Smart TV
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
I don't know anything about apple however after a quick look at the stock, my view is that the company may do well in the short term, however over the longer term its performance is debatable. It is realistically priced at current price of $610. Samsung is hot on the heels of Apple and secondly Apple would need to keep on producing sought after new products to keep the sales coming in.
Conclusion : Short term -Good. Long Term : ??
Dropped to 385. Now at 425. Short term Good was not accurate
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
I don't know anything about apple however after a quick look at the stock, my view is that the company may do well in the short term, however over the longer term its performance is debatable. It is realistically priced at current price of $610. Samsung is hot on the heels of Apple and secondly Apple would need to keep on producing sought after new products to keep the sales coming in.
Conclusion : Short term -Good. Long Term : ??
The short term good prediction on Oct 20 did not pan out
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Seems cheap at current prices. The company holds significant amount of cash. Pipeline is good for next 1 or 2 year but after that its future is debatable.
Neither did this one on Nov 1 2012. Seems cheap?
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
well it is currently trading at prospective p/e of just over 10, which does not seem very high for a stock that is expected to increase its earnings by by about 15-20% in the next financial year, and will have cash approaching $200 billions.
This was on Jan 8 2013. As I stated relying on p to e based on peak earnings for tech stock is downright dangerous. Relying on 25 to 20% earnings growth from a large base even more so.
It is about plain old common sense. Per Buffet this is not rocket science. Need high school arithmetic only. Wall strret types throw jargon. None of that is needed.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
- I don't know anything about apple however after a quick look at the stock, my view is that the company may do well in the short term, however over the longer term its performance is debatable. It is realistically priced at current price of $610. Samsung is hot on the heels of Apple and secondly Apple would need to keep on producing sought after new products to keep the sales coming in.
Conclusion : Short term -Good. Long Term : ??
- Seems cheap at current prices. The company holds significant amount of cash. Pipeline is good for next 1 or 2 year but after that its future is debatable.
- Samsung Galaxy is outselling Apple Iphone, Ipad is also struggling. Apple may do better with the launch of Iphone 5 but its supplier in Taiwan is not able to produce enough of them.
Like I said before there may be some life in the stock in the shortrun, if you can get you timing right. Worth a punt.
1. Although beyond the short term it is debatable and risky as it will struggle to maintain the momentum. I still stand by that whilst I did say that I am not an expert on the company and knew little about it.
It seems that the market is worried about its future and is discounting it. If I were to buy a stock I would look at its worth and what price I needed to pay for it and then ignore day to day price changes. I take a long term view of a stock than day to day or month to month. I did state that tech stocks are volatile and you can make or lose a lot of money on them. So tech stocks aren't for the faint hearted.
it 52 week low was $419 so don't think it will go to $300 unless something drastic happens. Reason for the fall in price seems to be due to lower rating because of uncertainy about the future as Samsung seems to be making big inroads. However trading is normal so far, with earnings expected to grow but not at the pace of the past few years.
well it is currently trading at prospective p/e of just over 10, which does not seem very high for a stock that is expected to increase its earnings by by about 15-20% in the next financial year, and will have cash approaching $200 billions.
This is what I wrote
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Just stopped short at 696 or 698. Odds are it should cross 700 sometime next week. There have been a couple of articles in the WSJ that have pointed out the risks with this stock. They expect sales to go thru the roof onthe latest iphone version 5. But they dont expect next version to have same impact. Something abt competitoiin catching up. I have no clue. But I agree with you - this stock is now momentum driven. Though so far I have been wrong on this baby.
Weren't you the one that expected prices to rise.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Since then what has happened:
Apple loses tablet copyright appeal against Samsung
Apples patent lawsuit against Motorola dismissed
VirnetX wins over $368 million dollars verdict against Apple
Judge allows claim by Samsung that Iphone 5 infringes its patent
Judges verdict that Apple did not infringe patent of Iphone Ipad Ipod to be reviewed
WiLan initiates litigation against Apple
Judge rejects Apples injunction bid against Samsung
Apple Q2 below Analysts estimates
Apple to lose Iphone trademark in Brazil
It seems that Apple has been through a rough patch since we discussed the company and some of the issues I did write about. Apple did not perform as well as was expected of it. It was not an expensive stock then and sentiment was positive on the stock and its outlook was good in the short term. Now the sentiment has turned negative on the stock. Even when I sounded positive on the stock (based on the information available at the time) I still advised people to wait and get their timing right.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Noticed Apple is currently at 633 which is around 40% more than what it was a year ago.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Noticed Apple is currently at 633 which is around 40% more than what it was a year ago.
I don't know anything about apple however after a quick look at the stock, my view is that the company may do well in the short term, however over the longer term its performance is debatable. It is realistically priced at current price of $610. Samsung is hot on the heels of Apple and secondly Apple would need to keep on producing sought after new products to keep the sales coming in.
Conclusion : Short term -Good. Long Term : ??
per your October 20 2012 post, the short term price action for AAPL was expected to be positive. If anyone had heeded that call, he she got burnt. AAPL kept falling to 400. It first reached 400 circa Marc h 2013. Then again circa June 2013. It is quite meaningless to pick an arbitrary time frame and state it is up 40 pct from a year ago! One has to take a look at how far off ones prediction.was for the stock.
so let us break in down.
Oct 20 2012 AAPL at 610. Lost 25 pct through June 2013. During same period Snp 500 went from 1430 to 1631. A gain of 14 pct. Or a differential of 39 pct!
AAPL now at 633. So a gain of 3.7% since Oct 20 2012. Snp500 went from 1430 to 1925. A gain of 34.6 pct. Or a differential of 31 pct.
March 17 2012 is when thread started. AAPL at 585. so gain of 8.1 pct. Snp500 at 1404. Gain 9 39.4 pct. Differential of 31 pct.
So was AAPL overvalued in March 17 2012 and Oct 2012? The results certainly bear that out. Regardless of how AAPL did in the last 12 months.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Also let us dig into how far off the short term prediction was
AAPL bottomed at 390 April 19 2013. A loss of 32.8 from the Oct 20 2012 level of 610. Meanwhile SNP500 closed at 1555. A gain of 10.7 0ct. Differential of 43.5 pct.
Nothing further to discuss, IMO. The numbers speak for themselves.