Looks like PPP and PML-N are set for the future government.
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/12/top7.htm
IRI survey sees opposition sweeping polls
By Anwar Iqbal
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/12/images/top02.jpg
WASHINGTON, Feb 11: President Pervez Musharraf’s popularity has hit an all-time low while opposition parties can have a landslide victory in the Feb 18 elections, said an opinion survey released on Monday.
The surveyors – Washington-based International Republican Institute – noted that a major victory for opposition parties could force the president to step down.
Released a week before the parliamentary elections, the survey predicted a bleak future for the former ruling party, PML-Q.
As many as 79 per cent Pakistanis told the surveyors that if PML-Q wins, they will consider the elections rigged. And 58 per cent said they will participate in a protest if the elections are rigged.
The two main opposition parties – PPP and PML-N – have the backing of a combined 72 per cent of those surveyed.
The surveyors noted that former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination has had an enormous impact on the political landscape; both as a setback to President Musharraf as well as a boost to her party’s numbers.
When asked if they felt that Ms Bhutto’s death had weakened the federation, 93 per cent agreed.
Pakistan is also facing economic difficulties; 94 per cent agreed that the shortages of wheat, petrol and electricity were serious problems. These bread and butter issues remain the top concern in the minds of Pakistani voters.
Also important to voters, is the declining sense of security. Voters expressed concern regarding rising extremism; 73 per cent agreed that religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan.
The randomly selected sample consists of 3,485 adult men and women from 223 rural and 127 urban locations in 50 districts in all four provinces of Pakistan. The margin of error for the national sample is plus or minus 1.69 percentage points.
According to the survey, Pakistan People’s Party has gained substantial support since Ms Bhutto’s assassination in December. Half of those surveyed said they plan to vote for PPP, with the next highest total, 22 per cent, intend to vote for PML-N.
When asked about the direction that the country was headed, an all-time high of 84 per cent said it was headed in the wrong direction while an all-time low of 15 per cent said in the right direction; this represents a 14 point increase in the wrong direction number and an 11 point drop in the right direction number.
President Musharraf: The vast majority of Pakistanis want President Musharraf out of office, with 75 per cent wanting his resignation and 16 per cent opposed; six per cent replied maybe. The number calling for his resignation has increased eight points from the last poll.
When Pakistanis were asked which one leader was the best person to handle the country’s problems, only eight per cent named him this time around; this is a drop of 15 points since the last poll.
When asked how they would feel about the future of the country if Mr Musharraf resigned, 62 per cent of the respondents said very good and another 17 per cent said good, for a combined 79 per cent.
If President Musharraf’s support among Pakistanis has plummeted, PPP co-chairman Asif Zardari is not doing much better either.
Asif Zardari and Makhdom Amin Fahim: When asked who they would prefer to lead PPP until Bilawal Bhutto Zardari comes of age, 66 per cent chose Makhdom Amin Fahim. Mr Fahim was also the choice of 77 per cent to be PPP’s candidate for prime minister.
When asked if they liked or disliked various political personalities, 66 per cent said they liked Makhdom Amim Fahim, 55 per cent saikd they liked Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and 37 per cent said they liked Mr Zardari.
Jailed lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan was liked by 37 per cent as well, an increase of 24 per cent since the last survey.
Best Suited to lead Pakistan: Asked to choose the one person they believed could best handle the problems facing Pakistan 32 per cent said Makhdom Amin Fahim. PML-N chairman Nawaz Sharif came in second at 23 per cent. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (14 per cent), Mr Musharraf (eight per cent), and former chief minister of Punjab Pervez Elahi (five per cent) rounded out the top five.
Elections: Interest in the elections remains high. When asked if they were planning on voting, 90 per cent of respondents said that they were either very or somewhat likely to vote.
When asked if they supported the delay in the elections from its original date to February 18, Pakistanis were surprisingly split, with 51 per cent saying that they supported the delay while 43 per cent opposed.
However, when they asked why they thought the elections had been delayed, 57 per cent said that it was because Mr Musharraf feared that PML-Q would not win, while 39 per cent said that it was due to legitimate security concerns.
When asked if they would support a postponement of the elections for up to one year, voters were overwhelmingly opposed: 85 per cent said they would oppose such a postponement.
The idea of President Musharraf resigning and the elections being held under a unity government had the support of 69 per cent.
