Conversely if sunnis keep on creating problems on the road to democracy, Shias of South may just decide, enough is enough.... we dont want anything to do with them either. Kurds will want nothing better than their own state - Kurdistan - and add more areas from Turkey at a later date.
So, in the long term, who should be the US ally in Iraq? :)
By the way, my understanding is, and I may be wrong, that in Iran, sunnis are treated quite shabbily.. so sunnis in Iraq don't have a great model to look at, and won't have warm and fuzzy feelings about a shia-controlled Iraq. Especially if it is spearheaded by religious clergy.
"OG its time you admitted that US admins of days gone by are not the same as the current admin. When a president openly declares that his intuition cant be wrong, you know there are serious issues."
I do not believe that the American people are significntly different in their views than 50 years ago. Bush was reelected, get over it.
If Iraq breaks up, the first way that you will see it is that the Kurdish Peshmerga will reverse the Ethnic cleansing that Saddam did in Mosul. they will recalime the city and throw the Arabs out. That gives them a huge oil base, and they declare independence. Frankly I hope we support them. Screw the Turks, Kurdistan is frankly the best of Iraq. The Shia will form Shiastan, and yes they will be close to Iran, but they alreadly are, and even the Shia can be very nationalistic. They will not be ruled by Iran.
The Sunni are really screwed. They don't realize that this is the worst case outcome for them. It will become the next Afghanistan as a home for every world wide terrorist. Wheee...
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*Originally posted by Ohioguy: *
The Sunni are really screwed. They don't realize that this is the worst case outcome for them.
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I am pretty sure they do. They knew it all along, and that is one reason why they are fighting so hard to create disharmony in Iraq, so that elections can't be held. Their best hope is that US leaves before a legitimate government takes charge, and then there can be a proper civil war, through which sunnis can retake control of the country. Their back up plan is more likely to keep Iraq destabilized and as soon as US leaves, to start a civil war. Now, the problem is that US can't stay in Iraq indefinitely and keep her soldiers in harm's way, as it will create more internal problems for US Commander-in-Chief. And as much long as US plans to stay in Iraq, the insurgents will be there longer.
Unless Iraqis can come up with a Statesman who can unite the whole country again and lead them out of this mess, its pretty much a lost cause, either way. I don't think Alawi is the man. He is just a stop-gap. Iraqis need someone with integrity and credibility. Anyone who is deemed to be a US puppet looses the credibility. Its a tough place to be, frankly.
Sunnis have nothing to worry about imo. Soon Shias will get fed up once their candidates mysteriously lose the election. They aren't going to sit down like dems in 2000. Grab your popcorns - its going to be one hell of a show.