Here is a rather simplistic view on the reasons for war. Among all the other possible reasons discussed here, this angle perhaps hasnt been looked at before. Here we go:
Background:
OPEC as we know is an international organization comprising of eleven developing countries which are heavily reliant on oil revenues as their main source of income. The current members are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. It is important to note that currently OPEC’s standard monetary currency is the U.S. dollar which is currently used in (most) OPEC oil trading member countries. (e.g. $45.00 per Barrel)
Saddam sealed his fate when he decided to switch to the euro in Nov. of 2000 (and later converted his $10 billion reserve fund at the U.N. to euros). At that point, another manufactured Gulf War become inevitable under Bush II. The real reason for this upcoming war is this administration’s goal of preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. The Federal Reserve’s greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Thus, the euro will gain and the dollar will continue to loose. The dollar-euro threat is powerful enough, that they’ll rather risk much of the economic backlash in the short-term, to prevent the long-term dollar crash of an OPEC transaction standard change from dollars to euros.
This information about Iraq’s oil currency is censored by the U.S. media and the Bush administration as the truth could potentially curtail both investor and consumer confidence, reduce consumer borrowing/ spending, create political pressure to form a new energy policy that slowly weans us off middle-eastern oil, and of course stop our march towards war in Iraq. The steady depreciation of the dollar versus the euro since late 2001 means that Iraq has profited handsomely from the switch in their reserve and transaction currencies. The euro has gained roughly 18% against the dollar in that time, which also applies to the $10 billion in Iraq’s U.N. “oil for food” reserve fund that was previously held in dollars, has also gained that same percent value since the switch. What would happen if OPEC made a sudden switch to euros, as opposed to a gradual transition?
Scenarios:
I: US goes to war with Iraq. The war is lengthy and drawn-out. Oil prices rise dramatically. If the war creates prolonged oil high prices ($45 per barrel over several months), or a short but massive oil price spike ($80 to $100 per barrel), some believe Japan’s fragile economy would collapse. Of the industrialized nations, Japan is the most hypersensitive to oil prices, and if its banks default, the collapse of the second largest economy would set in motion a sequence of monetary events that would prove devastating to the U.S. economy.
The positive: US stops the dollar decline in the long-term.
The negative: Many, many people die. Japan and U.S. suffer.
II: US somehow manages to prevent a war by mass protests and delegations. Although this scenario is not likely to happen it must be included in the equation. If no war ensues and US does not stop OPEC countries from changing over to the euro, the global economic climate will change. The dollar will continue to loose to the euro and US economy over several years will continue to weaken to the point that that standard of living will decline dramatically. This however will only affect the poor and middle class as the rich will continue to move their investments to the euro. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
The positive: US stops a war that would save many lives.
The negative: The dollar would suffer in the long term. Possible poor/rich revolution.
III: US goes to war with Iraq. The war is quick and effective. Oil prices rise in the short term. A puppet government set up by the United States manages to alter the change of currencies from dollar to euro. Iraq’s oil fields are now under our control and US now has the power to influence oil prices dramatically. The U.S economy continues on a level.
The positive: US stops OPEC from changing currencies. Not as many people die.
The negative: US goes against International Law and continues its hegemony.
Im certainly not an expert in these matters. So if you have read this far, add your comments, thoughts and rebutals.