Iranians Don't Think They're Next

There were so many doom and gloomers who were so certain that the US/UK operation in Iraq would inflame the region and lead to extreme instability. Iran has always been a wildcard for the future. This story is very encouraging.


Iran Not Next in U.S. Firing Line - Vice President
Tue April 8, 2003 02:44 PM ET
By Gilles Trequesser
TEHRAN (Reuters) - A top Iranian official said on Tuesday he did not expect the United States to turn its military might on Iran after the war in Iraq was over, but Washington had other ways to put pressure on Tehran.

Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi told Reuters: “Americans don’t need military tools to apply pressure on us, they have other channels.” He declined to identify these channels.

The United States has accused Iran of sponsoring terrorism and President Bush included it in an “axis of evil,” together with Iraq and North Korea.

Non-military pressure could include warning Tehran that economic sanctions could be tightened or that Washington could press for a United Nations resolution to outlaw a nuclear program which the United States says Iran is developing, but which Tehran denies.

But diplomats say Washington has sent assurances to Tehran that establishment of an American-backed government in Baghdad once Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was ousted was not part of a grander regional scheme to encircle Iran after the fall of the Taliban 18 months ago in Afghanistan, its eastern neighbor.

Iran has vowed to stay neutral in the war on its doorstep but is torn between enmity for both its traditional arch-enemy the United States and Saddam, whose forces used chemical weapons against Iranian troops during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

Government officials acknowledge it feels like being caught between a rock and a hard place but, in the words of one, “it is the only solution.”

That neutrality was tested on Tuesday after a rocket, apparently fired in Iraq, fell outside the southwestern city of Abadan and killed a teenager, according to local officials.

WELCOME AMERICANS WITH FLOWERS

Abtahi said the best way to protect Iran from any foreign intervention was to institutionalize democracy, a goal moderate President Mohammad Khatami has pursued since his first landslide election in 1997, with mixed results in the face of resistance from hard-line opponents.

Washington officials have said they support what they view as the Iranians’ desire to tear down the Shiite Muslim conservative establishment, which runs Iran through a plethora of unelected bodies, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the top.

Abtahi’s assessment that Iran will not be next in Washington’s firing line was shared by many in Tehran, from the well-to-do neighborhoods in the north to the dusty alleyways of the sprawling downtown bazaar.

For Mohammed, 61, a trained engineer who owns a spice shop in the bazaar, Iranians can use all the help Americans are willing to provide to end an Islamic Republic in place since the 1979 revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed shah.

“We’re ready for a peaceful relationship with the U.S., as we’ve had in the past, but we need a strong political message of support (from Washington) and the people will do the rest,” he said as he dished out scoops of saffron and pistachio nuts.

In another lane of shops selling pastry, cheap clothes, electrical goods and toiletries, Jalal, 38, agreed.

“I am not concerned about the Americans coming to Iran,” he said.

“But I want this to be without bloodshed. I’ll welcome them with flowers.”
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=focusIraqNews&storyID=2530275

Re: Iranians Don't Think They're Next

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by myvoice: *
There were so many doom and gloomers who were so certain that the US/UK operation in Iraq would inflame the region and lead to extreme instability. Iran has always been a wildcard for the future. This story is very encouraging.

....
[/QUOTE]

May not be VERY next, but sure enough the time is close. "inflammation" is not really required to get Iran into the conflict.

:rotfl: looks like the Americans still can’t get over the flower parade that wasn’t in Basra..

No, Iranians are not next because they are way down the priority list. Syria is next. Why is Syria next? Because of the need to re-open the Trans-Arabian Pipeline (Tapline) from Iraq to Haifa in Israel, via Syria. A quick search on the history of this pipeline will tell you it was constructed in the 1940’s when the now Israeli port city of Haifa was part of Palestine with a capacity of 500 000 bbl/d. But with the establishment of the State of Israel, the oil was diverted to Sidon in Lebanon through Syria. The pipeline has been closed for a couple of decades now (probably due to the refusal of Arab nations, including Iraq to officially recognise Israel). At a time when oil stocks are at their lowest in US, it is imperative to reopen this pipeline because according to one report, “the Tapline remains an attractive export route for Persian Gulf oil exports to Europe and the United States. At least one analysis indicates that oil exports via the Tapline through Haifa to Europe would cost as much as 40% less than shipping by tanker through the Suez Canal.”

At present the Syria leadership is not very friendly and therefore is a “rouge regime” that will, according to forthcoming US rhetoric (stay tuned), need to be removed on the pretext that it supports “terrorists”. The interesting twist will come later with the realisation of the fact that Syria has defense pact with Iran. Ideologically Syria, Lebanon and Iran are very close and have extremely close political ties. Now to add another twist, IF as the US is repeatedly stating the Iraqi people get to rule and form their own government, it will constitute of, yes you guessed it, an overwhelming majority of Shias again all inclined more towards all of these three countries (Iran Syria Lebanon) vis-à-vis Israel or any of its Arab neighbours. Incidentally other Gulf countries with sizeable Shia populations such as Bahrain (the majority of which is Shia) and the oil-rich regions of Saudia Arabia (again with a huge and very oppressed population of Shias) will be profoundly affected. Guess which way the balance of power within the ME will shift? Undoubtedly the worst-case nightmare scenario of the never-ending war for US and Israel? You can bet your last shekel or toman on it!

But I bet you knew all this already ;)

US will never attack Iran. Iran has no business with US or international politics or Islam vs West. They just issue fatwa here and there and have done nothing. Its government is US secret lover. They both love each other so much. Why Iran is the most favourite nation for CIA for last 24 years? Because of its stratigic location in the heart of Islamic region. A country this big with not so good relationship with its neighbours is definetly a chick for US. And ofcourse its a pluse to put pressure on Pakistan and Saudia Arabia too. Also good to stop a trans islamic jehadi movment by seperating Arab world to South and Central Asia.
Look who provided the ammunition to Iran during their war with Iraq in 80s ;) You will find out the answers.
I can bet on this that US will never interfere in Iran's matter.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by smooth_guy: *
US will never attack Iran. Iran has no business with US or international politics or Islam vs West. They just issue fatwa here and there and have done nothing. Its government is US secret lover. They both love each other so much. Why Iran is the most favourite nation for CIA for last 24 years? Because of its stratigic location in the heart of Islamic region. A country this big with not so good relationship with its neighbours is definetly a chick for US. And ofcourse its a pluse to put pressure on Pakistan and Saudia Arabia too. Also good to stop a trans islamic jehadi movment by seperating Arab world to South and Central Asia.
Look who provided the ammunition to Iran during their war with Iraq in 80s ;) You will find out the answers.
I can bet on this that US will never interfere in Iran's matter.
[/QUOTE]

r u on dope?

Iran is the eastern balance in the MidEast. The US would never eliminate them, just like they would never eliminate Israel.

These dreams of a new Iranian revolution (the counterrevolution/ reformation) are seriously exaggerated. Sure, the kids don't like the strict society, but they'll learn to live in it - just like everywhere else that has such an environment. The only place you'll find counterrevolutionaries in any number is Tehran and to a lesser extent in some of the big cities, around universities. There is a reform movement in government, but the Chinese had more than one of those without destroying the system. Reform doesn't necessarily mean reversal.

If there were to be a war in Iran, it would probably not be so nice. While things didn't implode (to date) in Iraq between the different cultural groups, Iran's divisions are much more defined. For one thing, the Azaris make the Kurds look nice. But also, militarily, it would be a lot more difficult for any invasion force; terrain being one factor and better equipment in Iran being another.

There are just too many deterrants for a war with Iran. Anyway, the US has already expended all of its political capital for a long time... we can chase pygmies in Balibago for now.

One thing is for sure... If the US messes with Iran, Iran will not go down easily...

Well US got away with Iraq because of the immense Public hatred towards Saddam. I don't think so the general public in Iran will ever accept US to liberate them. When it comes to war. The whole nation will be united ignoring the internal conflicts. They only way out for States is decalre an open war - I don't see that happening.

Already US and Uk touched the nerves of many countries . Another war like this might trigger a universal tension resulting in a bloody conflict.

Iran can only fall from within.

This article does mention, though, that “…Bush dismissed reports of a planned attack on Iran as “idle speculation””.

US for different kind of regime in Iran: Rice, HindustanTimes, 31 May 2003

…] Rice told the Financial Times] that the White House wanted to see an elected government in Tehran which meets the demands of the Iranian people for “a regime which protects the rights of women, which is forward looking and modern.” [Kinda like Kuwait? :rolleyes: ]

Re: Iranians Don't Think They're Next

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by myvoice: *
Iran Not Next in U.S. Firing Line - Vice President

[/QUOTE]

Then they must have something Iraq did not ;)

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Spock: *
One thing is for sure... If the US messes with Iran, Iran will not go down easily...
[/QUOTE]

Thats the difference between iraq and iran, iranians will fight for their country but iraqis didnt.