Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz in case Iranian oil faces sanctions..

[mAd_ScIeNtIsT]

Re: Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz in case Iranian oil faces sanctions..

@Faris_Udeen

The GCC on the dont enjoy the support of thier people who many are allready in open revolt. It could further hamper them if the clash becomes a long run thing. America is actually very stretched and like against Iraq it probably wont have a massive support from the rest of the world. However unlike Iraq where the Army and people were fed up with Saddam Iran has a very motivated and proffesional army backed with high morale. It wont be as easy to beat Iran as it was with Iraq.

The GCC countries do have overwhelming support from their people, with the exception of Bahrain. None of the monarchies of Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Qatar are in any danger, their people are generally content. Even in Kuwait discontent is targetted at the prime minister rather than the institution of the monarchy.

In terms of the shape of a conflict, the GCC countries don’t have the land forces strength to invade iran, and they would not seek to either, having seen Iraq’s experience with the US invasion.

Instead, they would target Iran’s navy, air force, and land-based anti-ship missile launchers. The GCC has a clear technological advantage over Iran in the air that woul allow them to forcibly control the Hormuz Straits.

Iran’s ability to produce its own weapons would be swiftly neutralised within 1 week of the war when long-range F-15s from Saudi Arabia would destroy the Iranian arms industry with laser or satellite guided bombs.

After the destruction of the Iranian Air Force and surface navy, GCC fleets should be able to leisurely hunt down any Iranian submarines in the Gulf. That would leave just 2 complications.

1. Hunting down land-based launchers. Without the ability to occupy the Iranian coast, the GCC would need to maintain near constant surveillance of the Iranian coast to watch for launch vehicles. In the mean time, oil vessels could resume sailing under protection of naval warships with anti missile defences for reduced risk. The US could easily provide such ships while legally maintaining neutrality, freeing up GCC ships for anti-submarine patrols.

2. Iraq would need to be kept neutral. Iraq’s Shia government would come under intense domestic pressure to intervene on the Iranian side. This is where the GCC armies would come into play. Positioned on the Iraqi borders with Kuwait and Saudi, they could secure against incursion by irregular or regular military forces.

The Saudis would probably ask Pakistan to again send troops to defend Mecca and Medina. The two cities would not really be in any danger, but it would free up Saudi National Guard militia from those areas, as well as make Iran worried enough about Pakistani intentions to divert some of its military strength to the Pakistani border.