I was thinking on Iran nuclear deal and something came to my mind.
We all know that USA is the biggest power broker in this deal, and it is USA that was pressurising Iran so that Iran do not become nuclear as USA thinks (and rightly so) that nuclear Iran would be threat to Israel as well as could reduce Saudi Arabian influence in Arab world. Only way to keep Iran away from becoming nuclear was economical sanction, that USA was imposing on Iran using American influences across the world, plus using influence over world institutions like UN, IMF, World Bank, ADB, IB and so on.
After the deal, Iran would have opportunity to recover from sanctions and strengthen their economy. Obviously, they can delay their nuclear ambition for later days. On the other hand, I suspect that Iran is already nuclear and that also since long time. It is just like Pakistan was nuclear in early 80s, without any nuclear explosions.
Anyhow, purpose of my post is to ponder about Iranian nuclear deal, what could be the reason, and effects on Pakistan.
Reason: I think, there are reasons that pushed USA to make deal with Iran (disregarding opposition of Israel and KSA). USA intending to withdraw from Afghanistan in near future. The way Pakistan behaves, showing love for Taliban terrorists on one side, and American dollars on other, I do not think USA has trust on Pakistan. America once leave Afghanistan, obviously would like indirect influence on Afghanistan. Americans also would like to withdraw their forces peacefully, and as it looks like, their withdrawal using Pakistani land route may not be that peaceful (thanks to rhetoric of some parties including PTI).
Hence, I believe USA may have decided that instead of using Pakistan land route, they might love to use Iranian land route and that also peacefully. Something USA can do after making nuclear deal and peace talk with Iran. USA can also use Iran to keep their virtual presence and thus influence in Afghanistan. Thus, nuclear deal that USA went on regardless of opposition from Israel and KSA. Anyhow, with this nuclear deal, importance of Pakistan for USA would reduce as well as earning from transit facility.
On the other hand, there are opportunities for Pakistan too. Pakistan can now import oil, gas as well as electricity from Iran that Iran has in abundance and is capable to sell cheaply to Pakistan (cheaper than any other country).
Pakistan can also use Iran as land transit … maybe a rail line through Iran … or good road network (that Iran already have) to reach Turkey and through Turkey to Europe, increasing Pakistan export to European countries cheaply (as land route through Iran would be cheaper for Pakistan than sea route). It seems that Afghanistan would stay volatile as habit, and that means, Pakistan access to Central Asia through Afghanistan would always going to be hard. With Iran free from sanction, Pakistan can use Iran to reach Central Asian countries and thus increase trade there too.
Iran can also use Pakistan as transit route to export oil as well as gas to China (and possibly India), and that means good earning for Pakistan. Iran can also use this route to import goods from China (again Pakistan earning transit fees).
Iran is rich country. With reduce or no sanctions, Iran would start growing fast, and that means, would need skilled labour that Pakistan can provide (as Pakistan has skilled labour force but no jobs), and in this way lot of Pakistanis would get their livelihood from Iran.
**Please give your thoughts and comments. Thanks **