Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

This article suggests that this war between triabls and foreign militants may continue to heat up and situation may improve…

The game is up for Uzbeks

By Ismail Khan

THE clock has come full circle for the Uzbek militants in South Waziristan.

They are, in all probability, making their last stand – capping an eventful journey that brought them first to Afghanistan and eventually to Pakistan from their homes in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Welcomed by tribesmen with open arms, the militants from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan faced little problem finding support and shelter among the Ahmadzai Wazir tribes in Wana, the regional headquarters of South Waziristan.

Qari Tahir Yaldashev, the IMU leader, aka Qari Farooq, became the star speaker at mosques in the Wana region. Yaldashev had succeeded Jumma Namangani, who was killed in a US air strike in northern Afghanistan in Nov 2001.

It was in June 2001 that Pakistan, reluctantly acknowledging the presence of foreign militants in the tribal region, launched its first operation in Azam Warsak. The tip had come from the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). The encounter was bloody and shocking. Ten soldiers of the Pakistan Army were killed, amongst them were two officers.

More troops were rushed in, but it was the March 2004 operation in Kaloosha (South Waziristan) that made it clear to Pakistan’s military strategists that they were fighting no ordinary enemy. They were pitted against a hardened enemy.

What followed was a spate of ambushes, IED (improvised explosive devices) and rocket attacks.

Over the next two years, around two hundred pro-government tribal elders, intelligence operatives and their tribal moles, journalists and government functionaries were ruthlessly killed and eliminated; most were blamed on Uzbek militants.

Resentment against Uzbeks had been brewing in Wana for about a year now. Fear and resentment had replaced the initial sympathy for them. Things, however, began to change last year when senior Taliban figures from Afghanistan ordered reshuffling in the militant hierarchy in Waziristan. Maulavi Omar, who had succeeded Commander Nek Muhammad as overall commander of the Ahmadzai Wazir militants and was known to harbour a large number of Uzbek militants, was in turn replaced by Maulavi Nazir.

Three things happened in the past one year or so that sealed the Uzbeks’ fate. One, the Taliban and their supporters in Waziristan had begun to realise that Uzbeks were turning into a liability because of their alleged involvement in target-killings. The most prominent name to come up was that of Saiful Asad.

Two, the Uzbek militants had allied themselves with militant commanders led by deposed commander, Maulavi Omar, who was using their muscle as a counterweight to Maulavi Nazir – a key factor why the Taliban threw their weight behind their nominee to ward off any threat against him.

Three and most importantly, there was a tribal dimension to the brewing conflict. Omar came from the all-powerful Yargulkhel sub-clan of Ahmadzai Wazir tribe and so were Haji Sharif and his brother, Noor Islam. Maulavi Nazir was from the Ghulamkhel sub-clan, the weakest group and one that had little influence within the tribal hierarchy. This intra-tribal rivalry had a significant bearing on subsequent developments.

Moreover, the Uzbeks, particularly the ones led by Qari Tahir, were seen as a liability in view of their reluctance to fight the Taliban’s `jihad’ against the US forces in Afghanistan.

The tribal militants soon realised this group was more interested in fighting Pakistan on its own turf. The argument used by the Uzbeks was that jihad against hypocrites’ takes precedence over jihad against infidels’ – an allusion to Pakistan’s collaboration with the USin the `war on terror’.

Twice late last year, Maulavi Nazir held a meeting of his shura of militant commanders to decide the fate of unruly Uzbeks and on both the occasions, Qari Usman Jan, who represented Mr Yaldashev’s faction, agreed to submit to the tribal command. What however, served as the tipping point in this Uzbek-local stand-off that was continuing for a year, was the murder of a widely respected Saudi, Sheikh Asadullah, on March 13.

Asadullah, in his mid-50s, was, according to some government officials, the moneybags in the entire tribal belt. He had succeeded Ahmad Saeed Abdur Rehman Khaddar Al Canadi, an Egyptian-born Canadian known for being a conduit for finances to Al Qaeda affiliates. He was killed in a military action in Angor Adda, near the Pakistan-Afghan border, in Oct 2004.

Mr Asadullah, who was taking money to the widow of yet another unidentified foreign militant also killed by Uzbeks, was ambushed to death on the way. His tribal companion, an associate of Maulavi Nazir, put the blame on the Uzbek militants.

Two weeks before this incident, a pro-government tribal elder who had twice escaped attempts on his life by Uzbeks, decided to take on the central Asian fighters with the help of his Darikhel tribesmen. Maulavi Nazir, who had remained neutral hitherto, decided to jump into the fray.

For the first time since the tribal region was beset by militancy in 2002, tribal militant commanders, who had until now been fighting the Pakistan Army, found themselves training their guns at each other. The larger group, led by Maulavi Omar, supported the Uzbeks. The smaller one, led by Commander Nazir, opposed the Uzbeks.

Therefore, all that is happening has little to do with the government’s ingenuity – a government that has shown remarkable ignorance of tribal history. One government official admitted it had fallen into the government’s lap like a ripe fruit.

What does the present conflict mean? One needs to understand that it is an Uzbek-only tribal campaign, targeting the so-called Bad Uzbeks’. The Good Uzbek’ are clearly not the target. The same goes for other foreign militants.

It is clear that the `bad Uzbeks’ have few choices. They will either have to leave the Wana region as they are no longer welcome or fight the last battle and die.

They had spurned a Taliban offer earlier to resettle in areas under their control in Helmand and Zabul, fearing they would become sitting ducks.

Indications are that the first round of Uzbek-hunting would be followed by bloody intra-tribal feuds. Tribesmen, who lost nearly two hundred of their near and dear ones in targeted-killings to Uzbeks, would henceforth be hunting for their tribal collaborators.

Little wonder then that the likes of Haji Sharif, Haji Omar, Javed Karmazkhel, Maulavi Abbas, Noor Islam and Ghulam Jan, some of them key militant commanders who had signed the failed peace agreements with government in 2004, are now nowhere to be seen and their whereabouts not known. Reports suggest that men folk of families whose near and dear ones were killed allegedly by Uzbeks at the behest of their tribal protectors, now form the bulk of the nearly nine hundred tribal volunteers hunting the central Asians.

As for the government, it is free to claim credit for something with which it had little to do in the first place. Nonetheless, by pure default, it can take some solace from developments in Wana.

The ongoing campaign would not only tame the Uzbeks’ firepower but also that of the tribal militants. The weakening of tribesmen would take care of a good number of militant commanders in the ensuing intra-tribal rivalries and hopefully bring some semblance of normality to the tribal region.

The government would be glad to see its writ restored in the restive region.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/04/05/top9.htm

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

mery sheer qbaeeli uzbekoon ko mar bhagaeen gy

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

It would be a huge mistake to consider Taliban as allies.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\04\05\story_5-4-2007_pg7_7

Rs 5,000 fine for ‘un-Islamic’ activities

By Akhtar Amin

PESHAWAR: Local Taliban have taken another step to assert their growing influence in Bannu – the hometown of NWFP Chief Minister Akram Khan Durrani – by announcing that anybody found dancing, listening to music, watching TV and loading songs in cell phones would be fined Rs 5,000.

Ali Jan of Kaki-1, Bannu, told Daily Times over the telephone that the Taliban formed a “peace committee” for Kaki-1 and Kaki-2 union councils a week ago, and this committee announced on Saturday a Rs 5,000 fine for “crimes unnoticed by police”. He said ‘Talibanisation’ was fast spreading in Bannu, and the Taliban had earlier made such announcements in the Hovaid and Takhtikhel areas.

He said Mualana Ziawar Jan Shah had been appointed the committee’s ameer, Maulana Takia Din the naib ameer, Maulana Abdul Ghani the secretary general and Maulana Zaif the treasurer.

Sources said that hardliners also distributed pamphlets in the Kaki area, directing locals to abide by the committee’s orders, or “face punishment”.

The Bannu DPO confirmed the formation of the committee, and said police officials were backing the committee to eliminate “evils like dancing, theft, music and interest-based banking”.

“Police supports the committee on three grounds: the committee members are unarmed Taliban, they don’t violate the law and they have promised the administration that they will not shelter any foreign militant in the district,” he said.

Meanwhile, girl students studying at government schools in Mardan have started wearing full-body veils, after hardliners sent threatening letters to schools.

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

divide and conquer baby!!!!!

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

^ i agree

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

man, why dont we send our entire army of 600,000 men and launch a triple pinzer attack on this area

with 100,000 men attacking from the south, 100,000 men attacking from the north and 400,000 deployed on the flank to prevent any retreat

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

You can probably defend out border on the east then, right?

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

It all depends on the govt now... Will they choose wisdom or stupidity? Take your pick!

Pakistan's tribals - who is killing who?

By M Ilyas Khan
BBC News, Karachi

Pakistan's tribal district of South Waziristan, on the border with Afghanistan, is in the throes of turmoil once again.

The militants have imposed their authority in much of the tribal areas

The government says that the local tribesmen have started an armed campaign to expel foreign militants whom it blames for launching cross-border attacks on foreign and Afghan troops in Afghanistan.

It says more than 250 people, mostly foreign militants, have been killed in these clashes since early March.

Unofficial reports put the casualty figures much lower, and suggest that mixed groups of local and foreign militants are confronting each other in what also appears to be a power struggle within the tribes.

Both claims are difficult to verify. Journalists have been denied access. Mobile phones do not work in the area. Landline phone connections remain dead after a robbery in the telephone exchange two months ago.

But interviews with truckers and residents who have been moving in and out of the region clearly show that while the above two views may be partially correct, there is also a third dimension to this conflict.

Power struggle

The Ahmadzai Wazir tribe dominates the western parts of South Waziristan agency, and as such controls the economically lucrative border trade routes between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The largest of its nine sub-tribes is the Zalikhel, which controls Wana, the administrative and financial capital of the district, and has traditionally provided leadership to the smaller sub-tribes.

Within the Zalikhel, there are three clans of which the largest is the Yargulkhel, the actual harbourers of foreign militants in Wana.

The Yargulkhel clan produced a number of Taleban commanders, notably Nek Mohammad, who brought thousands of foreign militants to Wana in 2002-03 and inflicted a crushing defeat on the Pakistan army in fighting in March 2004.

He was killed in a US air strike in June 2004, prompting the fractious Yargulkhel commanders, including his brother Haji Omar, to start asserting their authority and open separate Taleban offices in Wana.

The present conflict has seen some of these Yargulkhel commanders arrayed against Mullah Nazir, who was appointed by the top Taleban leadership as the chief commander of Ahmadzai Wazirs in November 2006.

The Yargulkhels may be upset because Mullah Nazir hails from an obscure sub-clan of the Zalikhel's least numerous clan, the Kakakhel.

That appears to be one source of the violence.

The target

If this is the case, then where do the foreign militants stand in this free-for-all?

The government says that they are being hunted by the local tribesmen, but reports from Wana suggest that only Uzbeks are the target of Mullah Nazir's fighters.

The death of Nek Mohammad provoked outrage among his supporters

The real al-Qaeda - the Arabs - find no mention in either official or unofficial reports from Wana.

Other groups that remain quietly in the background are the Chechens, some ethnic Uighur Chinese and a large number Kashmiri and Pakistani sectarian groups known in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal areas as the 'Punjabi' mujahideen.

Until recently, it was believed that the Uzbeks were divided into two mutually hostile groups, one Wana-based and headed by Qari Tahir Yuldashev, and the other led by Nasir Sohail who is based in the town of Mir Ali in the neighbouring North Waziristan tribal district.

Officials now say that there is a third Uzbek group in Wana - the so-called 'good guys' who are helping the local tribesmen get rid of Mr Yuldashev's bad guys.

Mullah Nazir has accused Mr Yuldashev's men of killing more than 200 tribal elders in the region during the last two years after labelling them as US spies or Pakistani agents.

Most local people believe the Uzbeks alone are not to blame, but in some recent cases it became apparent that they had served as hired guns for tribesmen who wanted their enemies eliminated.

Matters came to a head on March 6, 2007, when some Uzbek gunmen tried to kill a tribal elder in Azam Warsak, 12km west of Wana, sparking a clash in which 19 persons, including 12 Uzbek fighters, were reported killed.

Clashes broke out again on March 20 following the murder of an Arab militant commander which Mullah Nazir blamed on the Uzbeks.

Since then, intermittent clashes between the two sides have continued, leaving close to 100 people, including more than 10 military personnel, dead.

Third dimension

One major question is, how could a tribally weak person like Mullah Nazir succeed where powerful Yargulkhel commanders have failed?

A tribal council has called for the eviction of the Uzbeks

The answer brings us to the third dimension of our story.

Beginning late last September, a large number of previously unknown mujahideen (holy fighters) - some sources put their number at more than 2,000 - started to descend on the villages of Wana and took up accommodation, paying generous amounts of rent.

The local people initially thought they had come from Turkmenistan, but many now suspect they are linked to the Pakistani military.

The newcomers picked fights with the Uzbeks and created tensions that led to an all out confrontation in November 2006 between different groups vying for the control of Wana.

The situation was defused by some top Taleban leaders who crossed over from Afghanistan and appointed Mullah Nazir as the chief commander of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe.

The newcomers as well as the Punjabi mujahideen have since thrown their weight behind Mullah Nazir, enabling him to hold his own against powerful Zalikhel and Yargulkhel commanders.

Recently, even the top Taleban emissaries failed to force him to agree to a truce with the Uzbeks and their tribal supporters.

On Wednesday, his volunteers were able to dislodge their opponents from their well-entrenched positions in Shin Warsak, a village west of Wana, and there is talk that the Uzbeks might decide to surrender over the next couple of days.

Two directions

It appears that the Pakistani government has been able to exploit group differences among the militants and has isolated the Uzbeks.

The way ahead lies in two directions.

First, the government could try to consolidate its gains and isolate the Arabs and other militants in the region in the next phase. This would also mean initiating similar action against foreign militants and their local supporters in North Waziristan as well.

The government would probably only follow this course if it has made up its mind to abandon the Taleban for good and deal a decisive blow to militancy in the region.

The other option is to b*****sh the high casualties among 'foreign militants' to ward off international pressure for some time, without hurting the interests of the Taleban militants beyond repair.

So far, the second course has been Islamabad's preferred way of dealing with the western powers whose troops are battling the Taleban in Afghanistan.

Will it be different this time?

from www.bbc.com

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

What can anyone do?

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

the govt is creating another problem for itself right now. The Taliban who r fighting this little battle r not going to be so willing to give up control of the areas once uzbeks leave. If anything they r going to be an even bigger nuisance than the uzbeks.

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

PP whats happening is the natural consequence of the NWFP Governors policies. he was in fact ousted from his position as corp commander of Peshawar because he favoured working with the tribes.

Unfortunately Pakistan’s military chicken hawks wanted their F-16’s and the yanks to ask them to handover the generals involved in the AQ scandal..so in exchange they decided to send the Army expecting a walk over..and what instead turned into a debacle that makes Kargil look like a training exercise.(if it was a civilian PM who did the same..the Army would have lynched him..sadly double standards galore exist in Pakistan)

However the late success of the governors policy does not benefit Pakistan as a nation, the Pak military and paramilitary is now grossly overstretched and tied down, between large deployments in Waziristan, Balochistan and previous deployments of the Rangers in Karachi. The end result is a total vacuum in Balochistan and NWFP . And the governments impotence can be seen that where they are willing to beat up the supreme court chief justice and unarmed lawyers..they can’t take on well organised and militant threats in the heart of Islamabad.

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

I feel that subcontinent armies have gottem used to fight proxy wars. Arm militias, give them wepons and let them fight your war.

Re: Interesting analysis on recent FATA developments..

and now there are theories that recently arrived 'mujahideen' were undercover intelligence folks who then created the rift between the idiots on both sides.