Re: Impeachment - the groups
From Musharaf's stand point, its now a lose-lose. Even if he wins the numbers game, and narrowly defeats the impeachment resolution, then what?
Now that Zardari has openly called for his impeachment, two largest political parties in the federal government have drawn battle lines against the President. Previously Zardari was wishy washy on this. So, even if he evades being impeached, Musharaf will end up being a lame duck President who has lost confidence of the federal government.
To use 58-2-B he has to have reasons, plus most importantly, he needs 100% support of Pak military (namely all the key corps commanders). I doubt Pak military will want to re-enter this murky contest again. US has already called it "an internal matter" rather than expressing "disappointment".
Here is how I see it play out. Political temperatures will rachet up in the coming days and battle lines drawn. Mushy will cut a deal with the ruling coalition that in return for his resignation and exile, he will not be prosecuted for violation of constitution or any other acts during his Presidency. Muhammad Mian Soomro will assume temporary position of President while new elections are called. After Mushy's resignation, the ruling coalition will break apart, primarily because PML (N) would want the Presidency. After some more months of political tussles, army will intervene, fresh elections will be called and a new government will be put in place.