PML[N]
PPP
ANP
JUI (maulana)
forward blocs of PML[Q] lota, excluding that of nilofer
FATA seats
JI
lawyers community
overwhelming majority of the people
vs
PML[Q] lota league
MQM
Sherpao/Shiekh Rashid Party
Pagara Group
Some legal aids of the prez, including attaaaarni general qayum and kasuri
Supreme Court (PCO judges)
Some renegade PPP members, primarily McDoom Fahim
Some western powers
Looks like a pretty even contest, if you disregard the parliamentary numbers.
From Musharaf's stand point, its now a lose-lose. Even if he wins the numbers game, and narrowly defeats the impeachment resolution, then what?
Now that Zardari has openly called for his impeachment, two largest political parties in the federal government have drawn battle lines against the President. Previously Zardari was wishy washy on this. So, even if he evades being impeached, Musharaf will end up being a lame duck President who has lost confidence of the federal government.
To use 58-2-B he has to have reasons, plus most importantly, he needs 100% support of Pak military (namely all the key corps commanders). I doubt Pak military will want to re-enter this murky contest again. US has already called it "an internal matter" rather than expressing "disappointment".
Here is how I see it play out. Political temperatures will rachet up in the coming days and battle lines drawn. Mushy will cut a deal with the ruling coalition that in return for his resignation and exile, he will not be prosecuted for violation of constitution or any other acts during his Presidency. Muhammad Mian Soomro will assume temporary position of President while new elections are called. After Mushy's resignation, the ruling coalition will break apart, primarily because PML (N) would want the Presidency. After some more months of political tussles, army will intervene, fresh elections will be called and a new government will be put in place.
So cycle of vicious circle will continue. However all speculations about coalition partners PML(N) and PPP proved wrong. Even if they part after departure of Mush, it is even better for the people as accountability of wrong acts will be very strongly dealt in parliaament and in the courts, which will ultimately benefit common people.
^ I didn't say its not better for the people. I don't really know whats better for the people here. I guess my point was (looking at my personal crystal ball :p) that it will all get a lot worse before it gets better (if it gets better, at all). Sorry for sounding cynical, but this Political Musical Chairs in Pakistan Politics will be very funny if it weren't so horribly expensive (for the people).
They have enough numbers to win an impeachment vote on a joint session, Zardari is willing (happy?) to sacrfice Musharraf in exchange for getting the PML back in the cabinet. That way the effects of the economic downturn don't get dumped solely on the PPP.
In a presidential vote the smaller parties play a much bigger role, as of now the PPP has quite deftly handled them..something which Nawaz has not..
Zardari is willing (happy?) to sacrfice Musharraf in exchange for getting the PML back in the cabinet. That way the effects of the economic downturn don't get dumped solely on the PPP.
Hahaha.... its just so macabre, that they know they'll bungle up the whole thing that they'd be looking for partners-in-crime to share the blame. I agree with you, though. Although, I am not sure why Zardari would want to hang on to Mushy's coat-tails anyway (except for the small matter of NRO, may be). Right now, Mushy is bad news.
PML[N]
PPP
ANP
JUI (maulana)
forward blocs of PML[Q] lota, excluding that of nilofer
FATA seats
JI
lawyers community
overwhelming majority of the people
vs
PML[Q] lota league
MQM
Sherpao/Shiekh Rashid Party
Pagara Group
Some legal aids of the prez, including attaaaarni general qayum and kasuri
Supreme Court (PCO judges)
Some renegade PPP members, primarily McDoom Fahim
Some western powers
Looks like a pretty even contest, if you disregard the parliamentary numbers.
edit: JI just said it will support impeachment
why waste the time on these keeray maokray..the two most important groups in this situation are
US and Pakistan Military. baqi sab group aik taraf, these two groups aik taraf and they will win.
