Lot of talk is going on amongst Pakistanis regarding impeachment and passing of constitutional package. Pakistan system is such that it is very difficult to change status quo, and most power in present status quo is with President. Both impeachment and passing of constitutional packages is number game. One need enough votes in Assembly and Senate to do that. There are 342 members in Assembly and 100 in Senate. Number games are as follow:
Successful impeachment requires 295 cast votes (no excuse for abstainers or absentees). Get 295 out of 442 votes (NA + Senate) and impeachment is successful else fails. To get constitutional amendments, requirement is 228 votes from NA and 67 votes from Senate. Since PML alone have 40 Senators. It means constitutional amendments cannot happen if PML do not agree. Now, here is how number games are:
Requirement for impeachment: 295 votes from NA and Senate. Party position in
National Assembly:http://www.ecp.gov.pk/NAPosition.pdf
Party position of those who may like to impeach President:
PML-N = 87
Party position of those with perception that they may join impeachment:
PPP = 116 … ANP = 13 … MMA (JUI-F) = 7
MNAs who may join impeachment:
BNP = 1 … Ind (who joined PML-N) = 4 … Ind (who joined PPP) = 7
Total from NA (possible plus probable) = 235
Senate: http://www.crss.pk/election2008/Senate%20of%20Pakistan%202006%20to%202009.pdf
Party position of those who may like to impeach President:
PML-N = 4 … JI =5
Party position of those with perception that they may join impeachment:
PPP = 9 … ANP = 2 … JUI-F = 13
Senetors who may join impeachment:
JUI-S = 1 … PKMAP = 3 … BNP-M = 1 … BNP-A = 1 … JWP = 1
Total from Senate (possible plus probable) = 40
Grand total (NA plus Senate) = 275 members
Well, each and every member of above parties has to vote to get 275 votes. If member abstain or is absent for whatever reason than their votes are not counted. It is very unlikely that all members would vote. Even in that 275, there are 11 independents, 7 in PPP and 4 in PML-N, who do not have to follow party line. Anyhow, even if all vote for impeachment (very unlikely) still number is 20 votes short for successful impeachment. Where this 20 votes may come?
Independents in NA: 18 (who did not joined any party … many have already given their support to President).
Independents in Senate = 9 (many are pro-President and have already given their support to President in case of impeachment)
Total Independents from NA plus Senate = 27 and at least 20 have to vote along with all other possible and probably for successful impeachment. Majority of independents have already given their support to President openly, so it is very unlikely that 20 of those 27 would vote for impeachment.
Same is true regarding any constitutional changes, as no constitutional change could come without PML supports as they have 40 senators. So even if all remaining 60 join together, they could not change constitution. Well, if PML, MQM, PPP(S), PML(F) and NPP stay together (these are parties who are in opposition apart of MQM) than no undesirable constitutional change can come until 2012 and even beyond.