I think the motive was to embarass Pakistan’s military as much as possible. Pakistan is a populous country, life is cheap. Anyone in Pakistan can be easily replaced, so killing people doesn’t accomplish much.
Equipment , though, equipment is harder. I think the goal was to humiliate the armed forces by destroying the most valuable things possible, and then just to make a statement for as long as possible by fighting for the maximum amount of time before escaping. That way you:
- Cause real pain to the state and armed forces by destroying that which cannot be easily replaced.
- Make the army look weak by not being able to quickly deal with an attack at one of its strongest facilities
- Humiliate the army by then escaping.
There’s an article in the News International from Pakistan today which makes a credible case that the usual militants were behind this, now led by Said Al-Adal and Ilyas Kashmiri. Both were former special forces officers and would know how to train people in the tactics and weapons used in this raid, it is what they would have specialised in during their professional careers.
Militants in Pakistan, like militants elsewhere, always need to build their support to achieve their long term goals. In the case of the TTP-Al Qaeda alliance, they want the democratic government overthrown and a more militant, extremist state to replace it in Pakistan.
This raid was immensely successful in proving that the Pakistani military is not as strong as it wants people to think it is. The military can be defeated, not by the armies of some immensely powerful nation, but by a small band of dedicated individuals. I am sure that in places throughout Pakistan where sympathy of the TTP exists, people who were afriad to openly support the TTP because they did not believe that the TTP could prevail against the Army are now more confident that it can, and more people will actively take part in TTP activities.
Militancy and terrorism are never irrational acts. The purpose is never just to kill and maim, it is always to make a statement, to build further power, and to further the cause.
After months of defeat by the Pakistani army in the TTP’s heartland, the TTP has shown that it can defeat the armed forces in their homeland. To those who lean towards supporting them, the TTP have shown that they can win, and they will take heart from it.
This attack is a disaster for Pakistan. The lost P-3s will be replaced soon. The people lost to the militant cause will be harder to win back.