How intelligence reports are being manipulated to exaggerate the Iraq threat

Today in San Jose Mercury News, the front page is graced with two equally prominent headlines. On the left it reports the President Bush’s case against Iraq. And side by side, it gives a detail analysis by the experts on how the President is exagerrating the Iraq threat. This story is syndicated across the nation, so I am sure all Knight Ridder papers will be carrying this. It makes for interesting read. Since SJ Mercury News only offers paid subscribers the facility to read articles more than one week old, so the whole story is copied here. The more interesting parts are bolded.

The present URL of the article is See doubts](http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/4236333.htm)

DOUBT AMONG U.S. OFFICIALS: SOME SAY ADMINISTRATION IS EXAGGERATING THREAT:
By Warren P. Strobel, Jonathan S. Landay and John Walcott
Mercury News Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - While President Bush marshals congressional and international support for invading Iraq, a growing number of military officers, intelligence professionals and diplomats in his own government privately have deep misgivings about the administration’s double-time march toward war.

These officials charge that administration hawks have exaggerated evidence of the threat that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein poses – including distorting his links to the Al-Qaida terrorist network – have overstated the amount of international support for attacking Iraq and have downplayed the potential repercussions of a new war in the Middle East.

They charge that the administration squelches dissenting views and that intelligence analysts are under intense pressure to produce reports supporting the White House’s argument that Saddam poses such an immediate threat to the United States that pre-emptive military action is necessary.

``Analysts at the working level in the intelligence community are feeling very strong pressure from the Pentagon to cook the intelligence books,‘’ said one senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A dozen other officials, many of them at senior levels of the administration, echoed his views in interviews with the Mercury News Washington Bureau. No one who was interviewed disagreed.

They cited recent suggestions by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice that Saddam and Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaida network are working together.

Terrorists in Iraq?

Rumsfeld said Sept. 26 that the U.S. government has bulletproof'' confirmation of links between Iraq and Al-Qaida members, including solid evidence’’ that members of the terrorist network maintain a presence in Iraq.

The facts are much less conclusive. Officials said Rumsfeld’s statement was based in part on intercepted telephone calls, in which an Al-Qaida member who apparently was passing through Baghdad was overheard calling friends or relatives, intelligence officials said. The intercepts provide no evidence that the suspected terrorist was working with the Iraqi government or that he was working on a terrorist operation while he was in Iraq, they said.

In his Monday night speech, President Bush said that a senior Al-Qaida leader received medical treatment in Baghdad this year – implying larger cooperation – but he offered no evidence of complicity in any plot between the terrorist and Saddam’s government.

Rumsfeld also suggested that Iraq has offered safe haven to bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.

While technically true, that, too, is misleading. Intelligence reports said the Iraqi ambassador to Turkey, a longtime Iraqi intelligence officer, made the offer during a visit to Afghanistan in late 1998, after the United States attacked Al-Qaida training camps with cruise missiles to retaliate for the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. But officials said the same intelligence reports said bin Laden rejected the offer because he didn’t want Saddam to control his group.

In fact, the officials said, there’s no ironclad evidence that Iraq and the terrorist network are working together, or that Saddam has ever contemplated giving chemical or biological weapons to Al-Qaida, with whom he has deep ideological differences.

Uneasy voices

None of the dissenting officials, who work in a number of different agencies, would speak publicly, out of fear of retribution. But many of them have long experience in the Middle East and South Asia, and all spoke in similar terms about their unease with the way that U.S. political leaders are dealing with Iraq.

All agreed that Saddam is a threat who eventually must be dealt with, and none flatly opposes military action. But, they say, vthe U.S. government has no dramatic new knowledge about the Iraqi leader that justifies Bush’s urgent call to arms.**

``I’ve seen nothing that’s compelling,‘’ said one military officer who has access to intelligence reports.

Some lawmakers have voiced similar concerns after receiving CIA briefings.

Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., said some information he had seen did not support Bush’s portrayal of the Iraqi threat.

**It's troubling to have classified information that contradicts statements made by the administration**,'' Durbin said. There’s more they should share with the public.‘’

In his Monday night speech, Bush stressed that if Saddam gained control of radioactive material no bigger than ``a softball,‘’ he could build a nuclear weapon sufficient to intimidate his region, blackmail the world and covertly arm terrorists. But a senior administration intelligence official notes that Saddam has sought such highly enriched uranium for many years without success, and there is no evidence that he has it now.

Several administration and intelligence officials defended CIA Director George Tenet, saying Tenet is not pressuring his analysts, but is quietly working to include dissenting opinions in intelligence estimates and congressional briefings.

In one case, a senior administration official said, Tenet made sure that a State Department official told Congress that the Energy and State departments disagreed with an intelligence assessment that said hundreds of aluminum tubes Iraq tried to purchase were intended for Baghdad’s secret nuclear-weapons program. Analysts in both departments concluded that the Iraqis probably wanted the tubes to make conventional artillery pieces.

Foe’s strength

Current and former military officers also question the view sometimes expressed by Vice President Dick Cheney, Rumsfeld and their civilian advisers in and out of the U.S. government that an American-led campaign against the Iraqi military would be a walkover.

``It is an article of faith among those with no military experience that the Iraqi military is low-hanging fruit,‘’ said one intelligence officer.

One military officer recalled the armed forces’ ``gung-ho’’ attitude in 1991 when called upon to drive Iraqi invaders out of Kuwait.

People were ready to go. People were ready to volunteer,'' the officer said. There’s nothing like that now.‘’

Some military and civilian officials say they’re deeply troubled that in their private deliberations and public pronouncements, Bush and his top lieutenants gloss over the serious consequences that an invasion could have for the war on terrorism and for the Middle East.

Bush and his aides have tended to emphasize the benefits for the region of overthrowing Saddam, such as the spread of democracy through the Middle East. Iraqis ``can one day join a democratic Afghanistan and a democratic Palestine, inspiring reforms throughout the Muslim world,‘’ Bush told the United Nations in September.

But Cheney, Rumsfeld and others are ignoring intelligence reports and analysis they don’t like, the officials say.

``There is group-think among the leadership,‘’ said one Pentagon official.

these journalists and their sources are not "with us" so they must be "with them" right? god forbid if you had a desi sounding name as an author of that article, would have been blasted as an al-kaaaaayda sympathizer already eh?

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Fraudz: *
these journalists and their sources are not "with us" so they must be "with them" right? god forbid if you had a desi sounding name as an author of that article, would have been blasted as an al-kaaaaayda sympathizer already eh?
[/QUOTE]

There are always voices of dissent during war time (thank god), this is nothing new.

Welcome to Good Ole USA where people want and expect the best of the dissenting voices to those in power. There are some good points in the article. The problem is that the article ends up arguing about the extent of the danger. That Saddam is a danger is left uncontested. So, he might not be as big a threat but if he is a threat then I would rather trust Crazy Rumsfeld than the author of this article. If there is no doubt in Saddam's heart that Bush means every word that is being said, he just might comply and disarm without playing games, and we might avert war.

Actually, there is no single "author" of the article. It is a collection of a series of interviews from people close to the decision-making process. The political voices (Congressmen) are clearly visible on network televisions (e.g. Sen Byrd etc). The professionals are not as visible, but, all of them are expressing their severe discomfort at the blantant manipulation and distortion of truths being carried out by the administration.

Why is Administration doing such manipulation? It is for short-term political benefits? Is it for oil? Or is it because they just hate Saddam, and want to use their military might to teach the world a lesson in subjugation?

Whatever it is, is a matter of opinion.

This article, and many like it, are just reinforcing the views expressed by me and many others. Saddam is definitely not a good guy, but there is no clear and present danger to US. The statements made by Bush are in the best-case vague and outdated, and in the worst-case outright false and misleading.

When leaders at the highest level of government are engaged in blantant lies and distortion of facts for unspecified gains, thats a scary thought. Or should be a scary thought for the citizens.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
This article, and many like it, are just reinforcing the views expressed by me and many others. Saddam is definitely not a good guy, but there is no clear and present danger to US. The statements made by Bush are in the best-case vague and outdated, and in the worst-case outright false and misleading.

When leaders at the highest level of government are engaged in blantant lies and distortion of facts for unspecified gains, thats a scary thought. Or should be a scary thought for the citizens.
[/QUOTE]

Yes that is a very scary thought. The down fall of a republic is when the leaders manipulate to acquire power that will be misused inevitably. I am not in a position to judge to the extent of lying that is going on. I hope the Senators are, and I hope the Senate does discuss this issue threadbare. As I have said in other posts that I think the reasons to get rid of Saddam are many, and Bush is probably emphasizing only one or two. I hope he is not lying to the people. I can live with exaggeration but lying would be beyond the pale. I agree with Byrd that the Senate should not hand so much power to any president. Having said that, I still have faith in the Government of USA, and I am keeping my fingers crossed and backing all the independent reporters to dig further to find and report whether lying is taking place unambiguously.

This is what you get when you elect republicans. All the sordid on this forum were cheering for Bush while educated people like myself and Chaltahai wanted Al Gore to win. But no, you all thought Bush was a better candidate. You made the bed, now sleep in it. Your lack of foresightedness is no excuse for not going to war with Iraq.

This is the best opportunity to get rid of an Evil idiot without whom this world will be a better place.

In terms of dissenting voices, that is very encouraging and uplifting to know that with the Kirpa of Bhagawn, we are not a theocracy or a dictatorship and everyone is free to express his opinions. A Congressional Representative does not ‘own’ his/her tongue (in the USA) and only speaks what his/her constituents want him/her to.

UTD I am glad that there are ppl who will disagree and can voice their dissent. That is democracy.

what I am tired of is a phenomenon I have experienced since my undergrad days. If you have a different position whether it is about war or taxation, or about (my favourite) the pathetic condition of mass transit and messed up transportation infrastructure, people would easily just say "so why dont you go back" its like huh??? dinn people come here to begin with because they wanted to have the ability to voice their opinion and to make their opinions count?

now take teh same situation, today and in dealing with topics of international policy and economics. You voice an opinion which is different than what CNN says, and boom, you are looked upon as some closet al-kaaaayda supporter. Doesn't happen quite as bad but when economic and trade policy is being discussed and I point out some of the anti-competetive protected markets we harbor, all of a sudden..you are not patriotic.

I frankly am tired of having to justify every time I voice my dissent on any topic, and especially these days having to put a disclaimer before during and after my thoughts just so ppl understand that just because someone is a first gen immigrant and is not buying into every policy that gets made, that the person is not some enemy of the state.

This topic probably deserves its own thread because I am certain others have dealt with this as well.

NYA: I actually wanted Mr. Flat Tax to win. This type of debate is par for the course. I would rather go through this than some crazy dictator turning against my friends overnight. Hmmm..what comes to mind?

Indira Gandhi?

Yup..Indira and Mushy come to mind.

who else turned on their "friends" if i recall right the iraqi regime, as well as the afghans were someone's pals too. I believe it was republicans :)

Exactly, this is real politic. National interest come above religious, ethnic or other societal attributes. So all this crap about US and Saddam and Rummy and Saddam is garbage.

I think some people may be posting in the wrong thread. :)

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Chaltahai: *
Exactly, this is real politic. National interest come above religious, ethnic or other societal attributes. So all this crap about US and Saddam and Rummy and Saddam is garbage.
[/QUOTE]

agreed, as is the crap about mushy :)

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Fraudz: *

what I am tired of is a phenomenon I have experienced since my undergrad days. If you have a different position whether it is about war or taxation, or about (my favourite) the pathetic condition of mass transit and messed up transportation infrastructure, people would easily just say "so why dont you go back" its like huh??? dinn people come here to begin with because they wanted to have the ability to voice their opinion and to make their opinions count?

You voice an opinion which is different than what CNN says, and boom, you are looked upon as some closet al-kaaaayda supporter. Doesn't happen quite as bad but when economic and trade policy is being discussed and I point out some of the anti-competetive protected markets we harbor, all of a sudden..you are not patriotic.

I frankly am tired of having to justify every time I voice my dissent on any topic, and especially these days having to put a disclaimer before during and after my thoughts just so ppl understand that just because someone is a first gen immigrant and is not buying into every policy that gets made, that the person is not some enemy of the state.

[/QUOTE]

The problem there is a mix of racism and fear. Some Americans have bought into the sterotype that if an Arab (or anyone with a turban) has an opinion that doesn't go along with the norm then they are a terrorist or dis-like America. This will happen in some places more than others, I think the best bet is to explain your postion of difference so those who are not truly racist but sheltered in their, I'll say "White McWorld", can learn from you which will hopefully help break down their sterotypes.

What's your solution for the transit system, more public transportation? And why are you so upset with it now, have a large commute?

UTD I agree with you, it has however surprised me that people with advanced degrees from well known universities do not have simple basic knowledge of geography, history or anything for even rurope..let alone asia.

utd

*What's your solution for the transit system, more public transportation? And why are you so upset with it now, have a large commute? *

My solution, more and better public transportation, the cities and areas it has been done well have used them as much as possible. But there is so much more than can be done. People alwaysuse the example of how bad amtrak is doing as an excuse. I say compare that with Metra in chicago, EL in chicago, SEPTA in Philly and the whole NY sub system.

Why am I upset? I have to pay toll on a highway which is congested to a point that what will take 25 mins in regular traffic take 1 1/2 hrs during rush hour. That is unaccpetable. What am I paying tolls for? anyways thats a diff topic, i will start a new thread.