What really happens between India and China would not be affected by the opinions of the people on this forum. If the purpose of this discussion is to guess what might happen, then you should consider facts of history and the geopolitical realities of today. Here is my opinion (it’s only an opinion. No one really knows what would happen) on various factors that would shape the Indo-Chinese relationship.
Indo-Chiense competition – India would never emerge as a true competitor to china. It’s not because the Indians are less technically sophisticated or have an inferior political system but because the Indians lack the competitive spirit and killer instinct that is essential for a world power. Look at history of India. Over 700 years ago, few hundred horsemen led by tribal barbarians such as Muhammad Gajnavi and Temur Lund invaded and subdued over a million Hindus and ruled over them for over 400 years. More recently, less than 200 Fijians terrorized over 400,000 Indians in Fiji (Indians constitute over 44% of Fiji’s population). With nearly 1 billion Indians, they have not won an Olympic gold in 40 years. Compare this record to that of the Chinese and you would see a glaring contrast.
The Chinese edge – The advantage stems from several factors. It has adopted a capitalistic economy that got it out of the classic communistic lethargy. It, however, at the same time maintained an autocratic control over the population that has never experienced democracy. This control allows the leaders of the country to make bold decisions regarding assertion of power. For example, when Nehru advised Mao to back of from the Korean war because the Americans had the atomic weapons, Mao’s response was that he was willing to sacrifice a few million Chinese for his ultimate goal (Dr. Li Zhisui, The Private Life of Chairman Mao, Random House , 1994). Another manifestation of this militant attitude was the development of nuclear and missile arsenal. Because of this diligent pursuit of military superiority, combined with economic gains, the Chinese are in a position to become a world power. Indians have not been able to garner a similar agenda. If the Indians were able to mobilize the country behind a position that they were willing to trade one Indian life for a Pakistani life, the Indo-Pak war would be over in weeks with India reduced to 850 million and Pakistan reduced to zero. But, the Indians can not, for various reasons, adopt such a doctrine.
Sino-Pak relationship – For the sake of brevity, I will not discuss what started the relationship. Rather, I would discuss what factors are holding it together. China needs Pakistan as a buyer of its technology, as an agent to keep India in check, and a potential provider of warm-water port (such as Karachi) in the Arabian Sea. It is likely that the third world war would be over oil. Access to the Gulfs of Oman and Adan by the Chinese Navy through the Arabian Sea would then be of strategic importance to the Chinese. Remember, nations do not have friendly relations, only strategic interests.
Indian Challenge –The Indian face several challenges. The easiest one to overcome is the lack of strategic weapons (i.e., nuclear ICBMs with MIRVs). A more difficult challenge is to develop a unified national agenda because of various special interests, too many myopic ethnic and religious groups, and over 100 political parties. An even bigger challenge is to make the Indians less fatalistic and passive, traits that would keep the poverty level high regardless of India’s economic successes. If every ethnic group was as aggressive and hard-working as the Sikhs, India would have a chance.
What might happen – This is only my guess. I am not clairvoyant. Future will depend on how many centers of power the world can support. I believe that India and China would form a truce that would be independent of China’s relation with Pakistan. The Indo-Chinese relationship would be based on trade and strategic cooperation. India would try to balance the US and Chinese relationship unless it is forced to join one of the camps but I do not believe that India would be an independent superpower as callously mentioned in the media. Pakistan would fare even worst. If it continues to follow the Sher Pur doctrine and try to form a global caliphate through jihad, it would lose Chinese support and eventually be isolated and crushed along with Afghanistan.
Wow, that’s a long thread. I am either bored out of my mind or I have too much free time or both. I should get a life.
Thanks anyway for reading this thread. .
In fact, I think that Indian would be better off to carve out a state and give it to Pakistan if it could relocate all Indian Muslims to that state.
[This message has been edited by Mursalin (edited December 29, 2000).]