Attention Armchair Generals of Gupshup World Affairs Forum!
So it is becoming increasingly clear that ISAF is inevitably on the verge of failure in Afghanistan, with a pullout scheduled before the Afghan Taliban are defeated.
So I lay out a hypothetical exercise.
Let’s say that it is January 2002 and you have just been appointed to control the war in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance has just taken control of most of the country.
Your Mission: You have 10 years in which to ensure that your forces can all be withdrawn from Afghanistan and leave the country in a condition where there is no foreseeable chance of the Taliban getting into power again.
There will be no political interference with your plans.
What do you plan to do?
Re: Gupshup Staff College Exercise: Afghanistan 2002
Mad_Scientist interesting topic.
If I were the commander I'd have studied the history of Afghanistan rigorously (at least past three hundred years and checked what happened to the Brits and Russians there and if I could avoid those mistakes) and then went ahead with the attack in the first place. The Afghans have always been good guerrilla fighters, and they know how to use their terrain to their advantage. Secondly the Americans can do what ever they will remain occupiers for a vast majority of the people. Ok lets think for minute that there was a lot of domestic pressure due to which I had to attack, I'd have properly prepared the attack and calculated all the pros and cons for the attack and then went ahead.
In this case the attack on Afghanistan was does not seem properly thought out and executed. Within a month of 911 the Americans carried out the attack on Afghanistan. Before any attack they should have asked the neighboring countries to close their borders, so that the taleban/AQ could be contained and targeted within Afghanistan. In this case they just crossed the borders into Pakistan, hence causing mayhem in both countries.
When the Americans attacked the taleban in the first few months the taleban were basically routed, if they want to talk to them now (with the resurgent taleban) they should have done that when they were in a weaker position.
I personally believe that if the taleban were not removed by the US the Afghans would have gotten rid of them, because they had started exposing their true face.
Re: Gupshup Staff College Exercise: Afghanistan 2002
So I'll start with my plan below
Objective: Win the loyalty of the Afghan people through effective government that rapidly raises quality of life
1) Run the country as a military occupation rather than convene a government of corrupt locals. This entails a military governor for each town and surrounding villages, who would be the highest authority that locals could appeal to when faced with ineffective or corrupt local leadership and officials.
2) Pay off the warlords with a pension as long as they stay out of politics. Hire their men into a mixed national militia that blends, at the company level, men from different warlords' forces and ISAF platoons. Invest disproportionately into this militia's salaries but base its men well aware from their ethnic communities.
3) Provide massive support to agriculture, funding irrigation and food crop production for farmers through providing seed, tools, and fertilisers. Any farmers found producing drugs should have their entire crop purchased at market value and destroyed, food crop seed provided to them, and be subject to close supervision in future to monitor future production.
4) Focus on ensuring water, power, education and jobs are readily available to Afghans across the country.
5) Taliban propaganda and the idea that this was a repeat of the Soviet occupation would need to be countered. Religion should be actively co-opted into this, reflecting the religious nature of Afghan society. Every rural settlement should be surveyed for its mosques and a new mosque should be built that is superior in quality and size , and engraved with ISAF marking. Said mosques should also be stocked with religious texts. Communities should be left to use or not use as they see fit.