Let us see what Pakistan can see again in few years time. Here is the situation of Pakistan in 1999. This is report and discussion on Pakistani budget 1999 (last budget of Nawaz Shareef). Please read and cry but when it would happen again, do not complain, as this is what Pakistani ignorant wants when they voted crooks like Nawaz. The article is written in June 1999, much before Musharraf took over in Oct 1999. All what I am mentioning here is from the review article on Pakistani budget 1999 published in Pakistan Link.
Wheat output 18 million ton (recently one of many big lairs of PMLN … Ahsan Iqbal told on TV that in 1999 Pakistan wheat output was 23 million ton … but that was blatant lie).
GDP growth rate = 3.1 percent (once population growth is taken off, per capita income growth was almost nil).
Wheat output was 18 million tons. Cotton was about two million bales short of the target. Wheat and cotton had both to be imported to stop ‘atta’ riots and to keep the textile mills from closing down!
Growth of Large scale manufacturing = 4.7percent.
Agricultural growth rate = 0.35 percent.
**Both exports and imports fell by about 11 per cent each. **
Foreign private investment stood at a little over $300 million
The whimsical decisions of the top leadership to spend enormous sums on unproductive ventures on the one hand and borrowing money on hard terms on the other couldn’t go unnoticed by the sophisticated foreign investors. Expenditures, for instance, on a glittering airport or on a $1.5 billion motorway, which would take at least 450 years to pay back from earnings the capital investment alone, did not serve to inspire confidence in the wisdom of policy makers.
The care-free, cavalier manner in which the governments of both Benazir and Nawaz Sharif have gone on borrowing on high interest rates, over the past decade, has brought the country’s debt-servicing liability to 81.5 per cent of revenue
[Note: Debt servicing liability is not Debt to GDP ratio. Debt-servicing liability means how much payment is required just to service the existing debt. When debt-servicing was 81.5 percent of revenue, it means that whatever revenue government was collecting, they were paying 81.5 percent of it in servicing the debt (as for debt, that was more than 110 percent of GDP). That means government was left 18.5 percent (100 – 81.5 percent) of revenue for all other expenses including defence. Obviously that could not be enough for all other expenses, so government used to borrow money at very high interest rate, increasing debt of Pakistan].
700 poor and unemployed commit suicide in 1998 (due to economical reasons). That is the highest figure in the annals of the country -three times the average number of people does suicide in Pakistan.
[These crooks lie that many people are doing suicide these days because of economical reasons. Actually, they lie because it was during their period that people really use to do suicide and they dream of present period].
That the Pakitani society is now in deep turmoil and has actually been in turmoil for a decade or so, is generally acknowledged.
Social and economic inequality, illiteracy, unemployment, negligible health facilities, ethnic and parochial intolerance, wide-spread corruption, arrogance of the ruling elite, are some of its ugly features.
[It was nothing to do with nuclear test or any other outside factors, as what is mentioned is similar to what was happening since 1988 (10 years … since death of Zia). All was happening because of bad governance, nepotism, corruption, looting and plundering, and mismanagement by thug politicians … BeNazir Zardari and Nawaz Shareef Ganja]
http://www.pakistanlink.com/hussaini/06-18-99.html
Federal Budget '99
Pak Economy’s Worst Ever Performance
The Economic Survey, an official document released every year on the eve of the new budget and known for its cheerful and upbeat presentation of the state of the country’s economy, has this time portrayed the performance in fiscal 1998-99 as grim. It has acknowledged the failure of the economy in attaining any of its vital targets of growth.
The statistics and salient points in the document made public on June 10 leave one with the inescapable impression that the outgoing financial year has witnessed the economy in the wrenching grip of stagnation and contraction.
This was perhaps the worst ever performance of the economy since Independence. To maintain at least a semblance of its characteristic cheerfulness, the Survey has called it “rather mixed”. Statistics however leave no doubt that it was the bleakest ever record of the economy.
The growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.1 per cent, almost half of the target of 6 per cent. Most dismal was the performance of agriculture. It remained virtually stagnant, recording a growth of a mere 0.35 percent. This was as bewildering as it was unprecedented.
The Survey attributes the bleak performance of the economy to external factors, mainly the economic sanctions following the atomic tests in May last year. But, agriculture is largely unsusceptible to foreign aid. It was not subject to adverse weather conditions either. Yet, it recorded a shocking fall in the production of both wheat and cotton, which constitute the backbone of the country’s economy.
**Wheat was as much as one million tons below the target -18 instead of 19 million tons. Cotton was about two million bales short of the target. Wheat and cotton had both to be imported to stop ‘atta’ riots and to keep the textile mills from closing down! **
There was, however, an increase in the production of sugar cane. Perhaps the proliferation of sugar mills in the country over the past few years had something to do with this. In the current cultural milieu, any body who is some body in the country is rated by the number of sugar mills he owns. These ‘some bodies’ also own agricultural lands and have in all probability shifted from wheat to sugar cane to keep their mills running. Then, there was an acute shortage of fertilizers at the time of the sowing of wheat. That this demand was not met is attributable to the incompetence, mismanagement and insensitivity of the concerned functionaries.
The large-scale manufacturing, during the year, recorded a growth of 4.7 per cent as against 7.9 per cent last year. The slow down has been attributed to the sanctions leading to a substantial reduction in import of raw materials and spares for industries. Then, the benefit of the fall in oil prices on the world market was not passed on to the industry as was done in other countries with the result that our cost of production became higher and less competitive. Both exports and imports fell by about 11 per cent each.
National savings dropped from the already low level of 14.2 per cent to 11.1 per cent of GNP. Obviously, the higher costs of basic necessities have reduced the margin of savings. The overall investment declined from 17.3 per cent of GNP to less than 15 per cent during the year.
Foreign private investment stood at a little over $300 million in the first nine month of the year as against some $640 million during the same period in the preceding year. The mishandling of the Independent Power Producers, who had invested enormous amounts in the thermal power sector, had scared away potential foreign investors. The freezing of foreign exchange accounts of expatriate and local Pakistanis eroded further the credibility of the government. The whimsical decisions of the top leadership to spend enormous sums on unproductive ventures on the one hand and borrowing money on hard terms on the other couldn’t go unnoticed by the sophisticated foreign investors. Expenditures, for instance, on a glittering airport or on a $1.5 billion motorway, which would take at least 450 years to pay back from earnings the capital investment alone, did not serve to inspire confidence in the wisdom of policy makers.
The care-free, cavalier manner in which the governments of both Benazir and Nawaz Sharif have gone on borrowing on high interest rates, over the past decade, has brought the country’s debt-servicing liability to 81.5 per cent of revenue. The Survey acknowledges this as the most serious fiscal problem. It finds that poverty has intensified due to the slowing down of the economy. It accepts that the burden of taxes has disproportionately fallen on the poor. No wonder some 700 persons, mainly the poor and unemployed, were reported, according to a national news agency, to have committed suicide in 1998. That is the highest figure in the annals of the country -three times the average.
**That the Pakitani society is now in deep turmoil and has actually been in turmoil for a decade or so, is generally acknowledged. **Social and economic inequality, illiteracy, unemployment, negligible health facilities, ethnic and parochial intolerance, wide-spread corruption, arrogance of the ruling elite, are some of its ugly features. Economic policies and fiscal measures are tied up in the IMF knot, which may or may not be in national interest. To add to the bitterness of the cup, the clouds of war are hovering thick at the Line of Control in Kashmir. Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz’s peace mission to Delhi was brusquely disposed of with something akin to a frown.
The budget for the next fiscal year was presented by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar against such a dismal backdrop. The immediate impression one gains from a cursory glance at the budget is that in its framework and pattern it hardly deviates from earlier budgets. The magnitude of the socio-economic problems dictated a surgical agenda. No such revolutionary change has been planned for any sector of the economy. Had the economy been moving on the path to progress, one would have indeed complimented the planners and managers for their budget proposals. But, in the prevalent objective conditions, it struck like giving an aspirin to cure cancer.
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