Moving forward the possibilities for Pakistan seem bleak to say the least. I see 3 likely outcomes in the next little while.
Almost any analyst or natural opinion poll will tell you that the Q-League and Mushy are universally unpopular with Mushys only real support bank coming from the MQM and its followers. Some of you may debate this, but I am not trying to make a partisan statement, simply inferring this from any number of neutral unbiased opinion polling done by agencies outside of Pakistan.
So the possibilities are as follows?
Musharraf holds free and fair elections. The Q-League is crushed. PPP and PML-N take control of the govt. Mushy faces removal by parliament and a possible charge of treason and acts against the govt with the support of his loyal generals leading the army.
Worst case outcome - Possible split in the army, civil war. Country disintegrates. In any such scenario the most devastation would be in Karachi with MQM and supporters being pro-govt and all other parties being vehemently anti-govt.
Best case outcome - Mushy accepts defeat steps aside and goes into exile. Highly unlikely at this stage with his sunken business interests and established relationships with Q-League members.
Intelligence agencies\militants plan more bombings, martial law declared elections postponed indefinitely.
This scenario has no resolution, no immediate outcome. Things stay as now, uncertain, tenuous. With internal pressure and pressure from the west - elections are inevitable. This is only a short term delaying tactic.
Musharraf\ISI fix elections. Q-League wins Punjab. Rigging is immediately obvious and there is international outcry. Mushy and his lackeys play dumb as you would expect.
Worst case scenario - Wide scale agitation, civil war. Army splits\loses control of main cities. Country disintegrates. Again Karachi would be hit hardest with mass killing likely.
Best case scenario - Army turns against Mushy forces him out. Stability returns.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
Lets hope for the best case scenario...
If the PML Q wins, the elections will have been rigged, and the situation is going to get worse...
But with PML N and PPP both in the running and both being popular, even with rigging PML Q will probably not get the Majority I think...
Between the two of the, the PPP and PML N may have the strength to impeach Mush, and possibly reinstate the CJ and Supreme Court.. Thats if the cooperate...
Mush might resign, he hinted at that a while back...
If he doesnt, then there will be some serious agitation, and the only way to stay in power for Mush would be through the Army.. But how willing is Kiani to back Mush in case this happens?
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
I’m sorry I honestly and truly wish I could believe you. In fact I even wish that people would just accept Musharraf because it might save the country (all though we would lose our liberty)
But no matter how much you people deny it over and over again Musharraff, the army and the establishment are Public Enemy #1 in Pakistan right now. International non-biased opinion polls confirm it and my trip to Pak in December and visit to Pindi, Lahore and our village in Chakwal confirm it as well.
The country is on the edge of disaster, civil war and widespread violence. The hatred against Musharraf and the army has no bounds, and trust me when I say I wish it was’nt true.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
Lets hope for the best case scenario...
If the PML Q wins, the elections will have been rigged, and the situation is going to get worse...
But with PML N and PPP both in the running and both being popular, even with rigging PML Q will probably not get the Majority I think...
Between the two of the, the PPP and PML N may have the strength to impeach Mush, and possibly reinstate the CJ and Supreme Court.. Thats if the cooperate...
Mush might resign, he hinted at that a while back...
If he doesnt, then there will be some serious agitation, and the only way to stay in power for Mush would be through the Army.. But how willing is Kiani to back Mush in case this happens?
PP I have little hope for the nation. My own relatives include people at extremely senior levels in the army.
Without saying too much, let me say that the army will back Mush almost without end. Partly because it has fallen away from the national interest and into special interest groups and partly because Mush has single handedly appointed all the core commanders.
I think a split is possible because the lower level members are still ordinary citizens who are in line with the national mood. Either way the consequences for the country are horrific.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
PP I have little hope for the nation. My own relatives include people at extremely senior levels in the army.
Without saying too much, let me say that the army will back Mush almost without end. Partly because it has fallen away from the national interest and into special interest groups and partly because Mush has single handedly appointed all the core commanders.
I think a split is possible because the lower level members are still ordinary citizens who are in line with the national mood. Either way the consequences for the country are horrific.
Well, then what can we do? Are you relatives willing to plunge Pakistan to even more turmoil?
There has to be a point at which they surrender.
If Mush loses support of his puppet govt, and the parliament impeachs him, either he leaves, or its things are going to get really bad..
I dont think even America would tolerate Mush sacking another National Assembly...
The you also have to consider the economy... If Mush allows this to continue by stubbornly hanging on, the economy is bound to nose dive. Even the special intrest groups arent going to support him then.
Still, Its worth a try. Lets hope some sanity pervails within the ranks and the people decide they have had enough.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
I just don't get it...whenever the political parties come to power, they are obsessed with getting the one who won out of power, with the 'long marches', the dharnaas, 'payaa jaam' strikes, and basically, every sort of disruption of civilian life and economic activity in the country one can imagine. This is what used to happen in Pakistan during the civilian governments we had in the 90s. Economic and national progress takes a backseat with the political parties just focusing on *****ing about each other...and the corruption scandals...oh well, thats another story altogether.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
I just don't get it...whenever the political parties come to power, they are obsessed with getting the one who won out of power, with the 'long marches', the dharnaas, 'payaa jaam' strikes, and basically, every sort of disruption of civilian life and economic activity in the country one can imagine. This is what used to happen in Pakistan during the civilian governments we had in the 90s. Economic and national progress takes a backseat with the political parties just focusing on *****ing about each other...and the corruption scandals...oh well, thats another story altogether.
Well, Democracy is a messy business... One hope was that with the supreme court gaining some independance and the media acting as a watch dog, we might possibly get some checks and balances...
But for all its worth, democracy does produce stability over the long run...This has been proven in many countries across the world.
You have to look at it in terms of the lesser evil.. Democracy isnt always perfect, but it is far better then the greater evil which is dictatorship.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
Well, Democracy is a messy business... One hope was that with the supreme court gaining some independance and the media acting as a watch dog, we might possibly get some checks and balances...
But for all its worth, democracy does produce stability over the long run...This has been proven in many countries across the world.
You have to look at it in terms of the lesser evil.. Democracy isnt always perfect, but it is far better then the greater evil which is dictatorship.
Agreed. Look at the process in India. It has been difficult and takes time to develop. But when it gets there everyone benefits.
Re: Future of Pakistan Analyzed - This look very, very bleak.
India was growing at 3 percent or less for almost 40 years of existance, it faced down revolts, riots, assasinations... And yet it didnt forego the path of Democracy... Now its all coming together for them...
It saddens me to no end when I hear India speaking of their country with stars in their eyes, while we have to worry about the spectre of civil war and foregin invasions and terrorists...
Its about time we broke out of this pathetic cycle.