Failed State or SuperPower?

POETIC LICENCE: Is Pakistan a ‘failing state’ or the ‘world’s most powerful Islamic state’?
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_27-11-2002_pg3_9
Kaleem Omar

When commentators talk about Pakistan being “a failing state,” what exactly do they mean? Don’t they owe it to their readers to define what they mean by the term before branding Pakistan a “failing state”? Or has “failing state” become just another buzzword for these commentators, along with such other fashionable buzzwords as “rogue state” and “terrorist state”?

It has become fashionable in some circles in recent years to label Pakistan a “failing state.” The latest variation on this is to label Pakistan a “failing state with nuclear weapons.”

That’s also the qualified description used in recent reviews of a couple of new books on Pakistan. Writing in Tuesday’s issue of Dawn, however, the well-known Indian journalist and author M. J. Akbar calls Pakistan “the world’s most powerful Islamic state.”

The first thing I have to say about this is that such commentators really ought to make up their minds about just what sort of a state Pakistan is: a “failing state with nuclear weapons” or “the world’s most powerful Islamic state.” It stands to reason that it cannot be both.

Second, when commentators talk about Pakistan being “a failing state,” what exactly do they mean? Don’t they owe it to their readers to define what they mean by the term before branding Pakistan a “failing state”? Or has “failing state” become just another buzzword for these commentators, along with such other fashionable buzzwords as “rogue state” and “terrorist state”?

Third, if by “failing state” these commentators mean a state that “does not work,” then, I put it to you, that Pakistan is anything but a failing state. On the contrary, it is a state where there is a huge body of things that not only work but work very well indeed, some occasional hiccups notwithstanding.

This is not to say that Pakistan doesn’t have problems; of course, it does. Perhaps the most intractable problem of all is the rise in poverty in recent years. This is the result of Pakistan being caught in the nutcracker of low GDP growth, on the one hand, and high population growth on the other.

These two factors have combined to put Pakistan in a situation where the size of the economic pie has not been increasing fast enough to match the increase in population.

The problem cannot be tackled by economic measures alone. If Pakistan is to get out of the demography-induced poverty trap, economic policies aimed at promoting more investment, higher GDP growth and higher export earnings have to be accompanied by social sector policies aimed at reducing the population growth rate.

But look at the other side of the coin. Pakistan is a country that, despite the four-fold increase in population since the first national census in 1991, has remained basically self-sufficient in food. This is due to the Herculean efforts of our farmers, the unsung heroes of this country. Today, Pakistan produces more than 20 million tons of rice, 6 million tons of rice, 30 million tons of fruits and vegetables, 48 million tons of sugar cane, and millions of tons of other food crops. Is this an example of a “failing state”?

Pakistan is one of the world’s biggest growers of cotton and the third biggest exporter of cotton in the world. It has been an important exporter of rice for many years and is now also an exporter of wheat (in 2000, for example, it exported close to a million tons of wheat). It produces some of the best fruit in the world, including more than two million tons of mandarin oranges a year, a million tons of mangoes a year, 600,000 tons of dates a year, 455,000 tons of guavas a year, 100,000 tons of bananas a year, 537,000 tons of apples a year, 190,000 tons of apricots a year, 50,000 tons of peaches a year, 36,000 tons of pears a year, 80,000 tons of plums a year, 75,000 tons of grapes a year, 50,000 tons of almonds a year, 105,000 tons of pomegranates a year, and 1,200,000 tons of other fruit a year — including melons, watermelons, papayas, chikoos, strawberries, mulberries, cherries, etc. Is this an example of a “failing state”?

Pakistan, today, has more than 40 medical colleges, turning out more than 6,000 doctors a year. It has more than 70 universities, with more being added to the list every year. It has literally hundreds of colleges and more than 300,000 schools. It has more than 1,500 newspapers, magazines and other periodical publications, and thousands of poets, musicians and other performing artists. Is this an example of a “failing state”?

In 1947, not a single village in Pakistan had electricity. In 1958, the year that saw the creation of the Water and Power Development Authority, only 609 villages had electricity. Since then, the number of villages with electricity has risen to 73,000 — or 120 times the 1959 figure. During the same period, the country’s generation capacity (including WAPDA’s, KESC’s and the independent power producers) has gone up from 200 MW to more than 16,000 MW — or 80 times the 1959 figure, with a 48-fold increase in the length of the country’s transmission and distribution lines: from only 7,000 kilometres in 1959 to more than 340,000 km today. Is this an example of a “failing state”?

Pakistan, today, has 12,000 post offices, 6,500 bank branches, 42 civilian airports, more than 4 million telephone connections, a microwave telecommunications network of 3,400 booster towers covering even the remotest parts of the country, several thousand petrol stations, and a railway network of 10,400 km. The National Logistics Cell’s truck fleet is now one of the largest trucking fleets under single-ownership in the world. Is this an example of a “failing state”?

Telecommunications equipment manufactured in Pakistan, including automatic exchanges, is being exported even to European countries. Railway carriages manufactured in Pakistan are being exported to countries like Bangladesh. Pakistan has more than 70 sugar mills, more than 400 textile mills, and thousands of other factories. The list of such things goes on and on. Is all this an example of a “failing state”?

Pakistan now also has a growing and increasingly sophisticated defence industry, employing more than 150,000 people and producing a wide range of armaments and other military equipment for the home and export markets, including jet aircraft, main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers, small arms and a host of other items. Is this yet another example of a “failing state”? I would submit that it is not. Make that, NOT. [Bravo! —Ed]

Home | Editorial

**M.J Akbar got it nailed.

Pakistan is the only Islamic Country, who has got Nuclear Arsenals. I wonder why Arabs don't make Nukes since they have got Oil Wells.

The Only thing Pakistan needs is to adopt Motto of M.A Jinnah

Unity, Faith and Discipline.**

M.J. Akbar? :confused:
Mr. Tiger, I doubt that idiot would praise pakistan for anything. I think the above article was written by Kaleem Omar.

Oh okay, sorry my mistake.

But why did you say M.J Akbar an idiot? :confused:

Well MJ Akbar wasn't neccessarily praising Pakistan, he was acording to Kaleem Omar making a point. Anyway, MJ Akbar is the editor of the "Asian Age" a magazine printed in Delhi. He was a Congress (I) stalwart at one time. I heard him rambling on and on on NPR's "Fresh Air" program. Not an impressive speaker at all. He is an idiot because he is pro India and anti Kashmir.

[QUOTE]
Originally posted by mufakkar: *
Well MJ Akbar wasn't neccessarily praising Pakistan, he was acording to Kaleem Omar making a point. Anyway, MJ Akbar is the editor of the "Asian Age" a magazine printed in Delhi. He was a Congress (I) stalwart at one time. I heard him rambling on and on on NPR's "Fresh Air" program. Not an impressive speaker at all. **He is an idiot because he is pro India and anti Kashmir.
*
[/QUOTE]

Fair enough, Mufakkar.

I'm surprised to see he said Pakistan is the SuperPower Islamic State among Muslim Nation.

Failed State eh? How many times have they already said that Pakistan can only surivive one or two years due to its miserable economy, and its been over 50 years and we are surviving and our general population is better off than those accross the border.

"The first thing I have to say about this is that such commentators really ought to make up their minds about just what sort of a state Pakistan is: a “failing state with nuclear weapons” or “the world’s most powerful Islamic state.” It stands to reason that it cannot be both."
LOL "hehe"
I dont think there is such a thing as a failed state.
A failed state implies that there is a percise end and begining. As if we are playing one big computer game in which there are those who win and those who lose. By the logic of these self professed experts, India should have been a failed state for the almost fifty years since its independance (but being a failed state would be an end in itself). But thats not how its works, we are not playing a video game. In this world, things are fluid, changing, no one fails, they just syumble occasionally. Pakistan has stumbled, but it will rise eventually god willing. Indians seem to think that they have such a huge lead now that they are completely untouchable, but they are not gods, they can still stumble, if not today then tommorow. So will all the other big powers, not even America can mantian its lead forever no matter how hard they try. Rome had many golden ages and it had many times of hardship, but it controled the world for Centuries.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Pakistani Tiger: *
**M.J Akbar got it nailed.

Pakistan is the only Islamic Country, who has got Nuclear Arsenals. I wonder why Arabs don't make Nukes since they have got Oil Wells.


[/QUOTE]

Oil wells alone dont make bombs .. many arab states have tried for years to obtain nukes.. Arafat and Saddam had tried everthing.. it was Z A bhutto's great skill as a leader to made that miracle.. with help of Shah Faisal and Qaddafi he carried out skillfully and with secrecy that mission which have made us secure against other hostile nations.. Because of this he not only lost his high office but also his life. Henry Kissinger had warned Bhutto that "we will make a horrible example of you" if Pakistan went nuclear. But Bhutto remained determined and died for his country... and not forgetting Bhutto's famous words.. hindus have the bomb, chriatians have it, jews have them.. the only nation that does not have it are muslims . but that time is going to be changed..

pakistan better be not failed state because you will bring down india
with you. for india's own good we need a pakistan that feels it has
everything to live for.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Degas: *

Oil wells alone dont make bombs .. many arab states have tried for years to obtain nukes.. Arafat and Saddam had tried everthing.. it was Z A bhutto's great skill as a leader to made that miracle.. with help of Shah Faisal and Qaddafi he carried out skillfully and with secrecy that mission which have made us secure against other hostile nations.. Because of this he not only lost his high office but also his life. Henry Kissinger had warned Bhutto that "we will make a horrible example of you" if Pakistan went nuclear. But Bhutto remained determined and died for his country... and not forgetting Bhutto's famous words.. hindus have the bomb, chriatians have it, jews have them.. the only nation that does not have it are muslims . but that time is going to be changed..
[/QUOTE]

Bhai, I know ZAB!

Ruki Suki Kahayan Gay, Atom Bomb Banaya Gay

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by rvikz: *
pakistan better be not failed state because you will bring down india
with you. for india's own good we need a pakistan that feels it has
everything to live for.
[/QUOTE]

Your kind words have a special place in my heart:)

Since then, the number of villages with electricity has risen to 73,000 <<

I remeber reading recently somewhere that total number of villages in Pakistan is around 120,000. So does that mean that about 40% of the villages in pakistan still don't have electricity in year 2002?

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ChannMahi: *
I remeber reading recently somewhere that total number of villages in Pakistan is around 120,000. So does that mean that about 40% of the villages in pakistan still don't have electricity in year 2002?
[/QUOTE]

Mind telling us source of your worth reading?

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Pakistani Tiger: *

Mind telling us source of your worth reading?
[/QUOTE]

Jaswant Singhs khoobsurat visions about Pakistan.

huh the habbit of discrediting anything that does not suit you.
Let us see....how I came up with that number...when I read it the way I easily remembered it was that East Punjab has 1/10th the number of villages in the whole Pakistan. Now why would I lie on something as basic as number of villages in Pakistan...any half brained person can verify that from a number of sources...but since we are talking about electricity, go and check WAPDA website...and tell them to take that number, which they have precisely as 125,083, off the the web site since it is a propaganda against Pakistan.

Now since you are found of facts..here is a home work for you...Check if total number of Universities and medical colleges in Pakistan match with what is quoted in the article.

The problem with most columnists today is that they first decide on a topic and then go about writing stuff to justify the topic. This guy decided he was going to write why Pakistan is not a failed state and so he goes about trying to prove his point by picking and choosing information that support his topic sometimes by suitably exaggerating numbers.
I also do not know why this dude finds the phrases "a failed state" and a "powerful Islamic Nuclear Power" contradictory. Is having a nuclear bomb a sure sign of a successful state....... I do not think so...

All states are bound to fail and break. Its only a question of time. :)

POETIC LICENCE: The doom and gloom brigade
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_30-11-2002_pg3_8
Kaleem Omar

Pakistan did not become a defaulter. It succeeded in getting its foreign debt rescheduled not just once but twice. The first time was in early 1999 when the Paris Club members agreed to roll over $ 3 billion worth of debt for two years. The second time was in December last year

There is an alarmist school of commentators in this country whose outpourings grace the pages of our newspapers every day. Their worldview is that of a Pakistan perpetually teetering on the brink of disaster. A few years ago, their favourite mantra was telling us that Pakistan was about to be put on the US State Department’s list of states supporting terrorism for backing the freedom struggle in Indian-occupied Kashmir.

When that brouhaha fizzled out not with a bang but an Eliotesque whimper, these doom and gloom commentators changed tack and took up the cry that Pakistan was about to be declared a defaulter state for reneging on its foreign debt obligations.

This cry was even echoed by some senior Pakistani bankers working for multinational banks. I recall an argument I had with one such banker in Karachi in the late 1990s. He insisted that this country was only months away from being declared a defaulter. I disagreed, arguing that Pakistan would not become a defaulter and would be able to get its foreign debt rescheduled.

So what happened? Well, as we all now know, of course, Pakistan did not become a defaulter. On the contrary, it succeeded in getting its foreign debt rescheduled not just once but twice. The first time was in early 1999 when the Paris Club members agreed to roll over $ 3 billion worth of debt for two years. The second time was in December last year when the Paris Club agreed to reschedule $12.5 billion worth of debt on concessionary terms that will substantially reduce annual debt servicing costs. Under this agreement, Pakistan expects to save about $ 3 billion on debt servicing over the next three years alone, starting from the current fiscal year.

The rescheduling involves about two-thirds of the $ 12.5 billion debt to be repaid over the next 38 years, and the remaining one-third over the next 23 years. The debt to be repaid over the next 38 years has a 15-year grace period, while the debt to be paid back over the next 23 years comes with a five-year grace period. The concessions mean that Pakistan’s total foreign debt of about $ 38 billion has, in effect, been reduced by about 30 per cent. The actual total outstanding debt is now down to $ 36 billion.

State Bank of Pakistan Governor Dr. Ishrat Hussain told a seminar on “Economic Development in Sindh” in Karachi on October 2 that, in the last two years, Pakistan has repaid commercial and private sector foreign loans amounting to $ 4.54 billion and has signed a $ 2 billion soft-term contract with the IMF. He said the government has repaid all one-year and two-year loans (which carry a higher rate of interest than long-term loans) and is now negotiating with the IMF on the repayment of standby loans.

Fuelled by the steep rise in home remittances over the last 12 months and the State Bank’s liberal buying of dollars from the inter-bank market, Pakistan’s foreign reserves, meanwhile, have risen to $ 8.5 billion in November and are expected to hit $ 9 billion in December and $ 10 billion by June 30, 2003. In September alone reserves rose by $ 600 million, with the total increase for the current fiscal year projected at $ 3 billion.

According to an understanding with the IMF, Pakistan should have had foreign reserves of $ 4.2 billion by this time, whereas the actual reserves are now double this figure. Due to this increase in reserves, Pakistan’s foreign debt, which stood at $ 36 billion after the Paris Club rescheduling agreement of last December, now theoretically stands at $ 30 billion. This figure of $ 30 billion is likely to go down further after all the loan write-offs currently being negotiated by Pakistan with donor countries, kick in.

Canada has agreed to write-off Canadian $ 350 million in loans, converting them into grants for social sector projects. And $ 1 billion write-off in US loans is currently making its way through the congressional approval process. During his visit to Pakistan earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill said that the approval process was on track and that he did not anticipate any problems in this regard. Negotiations are also underway with Japan (Pakistan’s biggest creditor) to write off $ 5 billion in loans, though this will require fresh legislation from the Japanese parliament.

The rupee hit a two-year high last month, breaking through the 59-to-the-dollar barrier to reach 58.95 in the open market. The rupee has climbed 12.1 per cent in open markets and 7.7 per cent in bank rates since September last year. It would probably have risen to 55 to the dollar by now had the State Bank not intervened to prop up the dollar to help Pakistani exporters.

Pakistan has also seen stock prices on the benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index skyrocket almost 200 per cent in the last 14 months, despite the fact that share prices in America, Europe and elsewhere have fallen sharply during the same period. On Thursday, the KSE Index closed at 2,238.14 — a drop of 47.34 points from Wednesday, but still nearly double the September 2001 level of 1,133. In the 14 months since 9/11, the Pakistani stock market has been the world’s best performing stock market.

Financial aid and loans have also flooded into Pakistan. The US has provided $ 600 million in economic support, $ 30 million in agricultural support funds and $ 75 million in Foreign Military Financing. It has also reimbursed Pakistan $ 617 million for its support in the “war against terrorism” (provision of five air bases, air corridors and intelligence to the US military). In October the US Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) agreed to provide $ 125 million to PIA to help it buy seven new passenger aircrafts from Boeing. This is the first time Eximbank has underwritten a deal between Pakistan and a private US firm.

Last December the IMF negotiated a three-year $1.37 billion loan programme with Pakistan. The first tranche of $ 333 million was disbursed in July this year. In the same month the World Bank cleared $ 236.5 million in loans. The Asian Development Bank has announced a $ 900 million loan package for Pakistan for 2003, and is expected to approve a financial-market governance plan next month for strengthening Pakistan’s financial sector.

Meanwhile, China has agreed to give Pakistan $ 200 million for the construction of the Makran coastal highway linking Karachi to Gwadar, on which work is in full swing, and $ 250 million for the development of a deep water port at Gwadar, on which work is now also in full swing. China has also indicated that it is prepared to finance the construction of a road link between Gwadar and the western Chinese province of Xinkiang — a largely pastoral region where Beijing recently launched a mammoth, five-year development programme, including $ 250 billion in infrastructure projects and $ 250 billion in bank loans to entrepreneurs to set up commercial enterprises. More doom and gloom, anyone?

Gwadar is ideally located to become the port of choice for western China, with consequent major economic benefits to Pakistan. There is now also talk of linking Gwadar and the rest of the Makran region to Pakistan’s railway network.