Exports to cross $14b, trade deficit to touch $5.5b
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s exports is expected to cross the staggering $ 14 billion mark yet imports further higher to touch $ 19.50 billion entailing a deficit of $ 5 billion to $ 5.5 billion, according to the latest estimates piled by the ministry of commerce.
In the Trade Policy 2004-05, the exports’ target for the current fiscal had been fixed at $ 13.7 billion and import target was $ 16.7 billion projecting $3 billion dollar deficit.
Subhan’allah, I can see that the Pakistani people are finally getting buisy. However, I as a Kashmiri don’t live in Pakistan so can someone please tell me whether these figures mean anything to the ordinary Pakistani on the ground?
Re: Exports to cross $14b, imports $19.5b and deficit to reach $5.5b
these figures don't mean squat to ordinary pakistanis...the rich are contiuning to get richer, while the poor, more poorer.....inflation is sky high.....
Re: Exports to cross $14b, imports $19.5b and deficit to reach $5.5b
there’s good news and bad news here. The good news is that economic activity is up, implying strong purchasing power thus the increase in imports. Also, exports being up means global activity picking up competitive Pakistani goods which should add to our reserves, but increased imports is going to be a drain.
Now the bad news. Inflation is a serious problem as imports continue to accelerate meaning far too easy money supply. Higher import figure is most likely cuased by higher oil prices. Pak is a oil importing nation, therefore high oil prices will lead to increased import bills. Result will still be the same, meaning increased pricing pressure=higher inflation. Exchange rate i.e., Pak Rupees will also come under pressure as deficits rise and that would mean increased inflation. End result will be higher interest rates and eventual slowing of the economy.
SBP was slow to react in face of extremely low interest rates and rising oil prices. Lets hope the economy has a soft landing, otherwise things can get ugly.
As for the populist rhetoric that it doesnt make any difference to the common man, well thats plain ignorant. Economic policies have a direct bearing on every individual of the state. When a economy grows 7% for a consistent period, that means the entire economy has moved forward, it is a terrific achievement. Its interesting to note, our Indian buddies love beating their drums of 6%+ economic growth, while our Pakistani’s are cynical to outright rejectionists. I guess it will take time for ppl to get used to a major economic recovery.
Re: Exports to cross $14b, imports $19.5b and deficit to reach $5.5b
^ the problem is the supposed trickle down effect never takes place because the govts priorities are topsy turvy...there has been no focus on tackling domestic debt..no progress in further fiscal and administrative devolution ..and in the end any recovery which is not institutionalised through political stability is not sustainable...that requires leadership at a political level not technocratic solutions. The negativity of your average pakistani is because the present uneven growth (growth without any effect on poverty and unemployment) does not change living standards. You also have a government which should now be working doubly hard to make a difference and besides being loaded with incompetent and corrupt ministers is busy llecturing people on how great things are and how nothing else needs to be done..
Re: Exports to cross $14b, imports $19.5b and deficit to reach $5.5b
I don't know why you guys are worried - Bush single handedly took care of most of your 'trade imbalance' (it's not deficit btw) and the rest ofcourse has become really easy with all the clubbing in gay paris...nothing to worry kiddos...get more f16s and some armored humers while at it
Re: Exports to cross $14b, imports $19.5b and deficit to reach $5.5b
**The imports have also shown an accelerated growth of 27.6 per cent during this period, however, a sharp increase has been noted in the imports of machinery and metals, indicating the economy is on the path of recovery.