Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Got it. Apologies and thanks!

Where do you get population growth rate data from?

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

And similarly, the thugz from 9-0 do the same, right?. ‘I’ would much rather rely on an actual economist persuing a PhD from UMass. That is my personal choice, and I know for a fact that this person whose opinion I take more seriously is no fan of Raiwind either like you claim (you are welcome to your speculation though).

Coming back to your calculations:

From your own link (PBS) from 1999 to 2008: 3.7 4.3 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.4 7.7 6.2 4.8 1.7

Explain to me how this yields what you stated, granted you are not too far off so chill out; in my initial post I did not accuse you of misinformation, simply pointed out its not matching up. Maybe I am overlooking something? Enlighten me.

Oh and here is the data from World Bank from 1999 to 2008: (more credible) 3.91 1.96 3.11 4.73 7.48 8.96 5.82 6.81 3.68 1.72
GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Table

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

So far, there is consensus. Zia's policies hurt the country.... a lot. The question is, did he have a choice except saying "Yes, Sir" to Americans? Something which our generals have always done.

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Can you tell me where you got the data that you are claiming is from PBS site … and what that data is all about?

I cannot find the date you gave above in PBS site link I quoted … that is table 1, giving real growth rate of Pakistan during different years.

As for data you gave and claiming that they are from World Bank’s site … these data figures are actually taken from PBS site (if it is from World Bank site, than WB took it from PBS site) … that confirms what I mentioned in my many posts that PBS data is primary source and any data that one could find anywhere are secondary sources taken from primary source (PBS), unless they are just concocting the figure to misguide.

I always take data from primary source, and used them to calculate accumulative GDP growth rate during various periods.

Check again, the same site that I posted earlier in my previous post, that I am posting again:

Data in above ‘table1’ shows (first column) real growth rate for each year… from FY 1951-52 … to FY 2011-12. … From this table, one can also see the growth rate in different sectors of Pakistan economy.

When you quoted World Bank, you also included the figure 1.72, but that ‘real growth rate figure’ is for year 2008-09.

Here are the growth figures from 1999-2000 … to 2007-08 … from PBS site (table 1, column 1) … as well as WB (what you quoted).

[TABLE]

Financial year
Real GDP Growth rate

1999 - 00
3.91

2000 - 01
1.96

2001 - 02
3.11

2002 - 03
4.73

2003 - 04
7.48

2004 - 05
8.96

2005 - 06
5.82

2006 - 07
6.81

2007 - 08
3.68

Above data figures is from PBS … but you got same data from World Bank (that is obvious, as World Bank do not tabulate their own data, but would be quoting PBS data … as given in Table 1 of PBS, that I posted).

I used above data to calculate accumulative real growth rate that later I averaged it out to calculate average real growth rate per year. It is possible that I might make silly unintentional error in calculating or quoting, but I assure you that I would never try to lie or misguide anyone, so please do not accuse me of giving wrong information. Actually, in your above post, you validated the information I gave … thanks … still, please give me link from where you got PBS data that you quoted (as I asked earlier in this post), because I want to know what those figures are :).

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Brother, you are welcome … and yea … I did quoted site in my earlier post from where I got the population data. Source I am giving again:

"]https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=Pakistan%20population%20growth%20rate](https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=Pakistan%20population%20growth%20rate)

Just run the cursor on the line of the graph and you would get growth rate for each year (that you can read on right hand side, under the name of relevant country)

I know that the site I quoted is not PBS (or any official Pakistan government site) that would have given accurate figures. Reason is that, there is no official census in Pakistan since some time and all population data are estimate, done by various bodies. The estimated population of Pakistan is interpolated using various data, but obviously they are still estimate and not accurate … though one can hope that estimates given by various organisations are quite accurate … at least near to accurate (though I wont vouch on that). ;).

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

I think Zia had choice. Actually, he did say 'No' when Americans first approached, claiming that what Americans are offering in aid for Pakistani involvement in Afghanistan, was peanut.

But I believe, pressure from Saudi Arabia (who wanted to spread Wahabism in Pakistan) and was willing to pay for it, plus American increase in dollar aid, made Zia change his mind.

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

OP never returned to this thread, as he hates Maths. :D

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

^^^ Actually, I should apologize as after recheck, I found I made mistake due to wrong entries of data in calculation (though not intentional), and figures given in Express Tribune about Real GDP growth quoted by Brother Mahool are accurate. Nevertheless, I still stand on what I wrote, that Real GDP per capita growth rate was highest during Musharraf rule ... but that also depend on how accurate population growth estimates made by different organisations are ... as no accurate records regarding yearly population growth of Pakistan are available.

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

As they say, Ab oont aaya pahaarr ke neechay.
;)

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Aah, GRE all over again!
Another way to find % increase: { (1050 - 1000) / 1000 } x 100 = 5%.

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Brother, what you mentioned is same as what I mentioned. Only difference is that, I tried to make the calculation simple. Let see how what you mentioned is same as what I mentioned.

(1050 - 1000) / 1000 } x 100

(1050/1000) - (1000/1000)] x 100

(1.05 - 1) x 100.

I skipped 1000/1000 and replaced that by 1:

This is your first part
*
(1050 divided by 1000) = 1.05

*Second part is (1000/1000) = 1

So .. we get 'Minus 1'* and then multiply by 100 *

'Minus 1' = minus (1000/1000) in above equation (what you gave). Fact is that, whenever one calculates percentage ... this '(minus 1)' would always going to be there ... regardless of (1000/1000) are different numbers ... as it would always going to be (X/X) ... where X is value of initial figure ... that could be of any value.

So, we would get:

(1.05 – 1) multiply by 100 = 5 %

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

I would take PBS figures with a pinch of salt.

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

^^^ It is possible that corrupt political parties could try to fiddle the figures, and no doubt PMLN is notorious in cooking the figures, and facing bankruptcy in 1998, Ishaq Daar did cooked 'Pakistan State Bank' figures resulting in warning to Ishaq Daar from IMF and fine on Pakistan, but other than wrong figures due to incompetent staff, normally it is difficult to cook PBS figures.

As far as I know, I do not think that other than PMLN (especially Ishaq Daar), any other party or person tried to cook State Bank or PBS figures (remember, Pakistan became bankrupt (twice) in late 1998 and again in early 1999 ... that happened first time in Pakistan history).

But even if PBS figures are not accurate than also organisation that can give Pakistan economic figures (and other figures) due to organisation having available ground work, access to various sources, data from various departments, research work on figures, and whose figures government uses to make policy, can only come from PBS and State Bank.

No other organisations or source have any access to various data needed tp work out Pakistani economic figures ... and that mean, all have to quote PBS figures (as there is no choice).

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

I used the one you posted: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/…les/table1.pdf

Anyways, if we go by the table you suggested, when I added them all up and divided by the number of years I was getting 5.16% which did not match up with what you initially stated i.e. 5.80% but I see you corrected that in your first post.That was all I was pointing out my friend :slight_smile:

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

And ignorance is really a bliss in your case, I was correct... Sa1eem had initially posted 5.8% for Mushy, it was actually 5.16%, he has corrected his post today (see below) and I take it that was a calculation mistake on his part (no big deal like I said, everyone makes mistakes).... Did you even read his post about that?

[quote]

[TABLE="class: cms_table"]

Zia
1977-88

11
6.59
3.3 %
3.18 %

Ayub
1959-69

10
5.85
2.6 %
3.17 %

Musharraf
1999-08

9
5.15
1.9 %
3.19 %

Yahya
1969-71

2
5.42

BeNazir
1988-90
1993-96
4.69 %
5.34 %
5
5.08

Nawaz
1990-93
1996-99
4.39 %
4.88 %
6
4.64

Bhutto
1971-77

6
4.27

Zardari
2008-13

5
3.02

Last edited by Sa1eem; Jul 10th, 2014 at 05:22 AM.

[/quote]

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

^^^ Instead of quoting my figures that I myself admitted are not accurate (due to mistakes in copying figures on calculator from PBS site), please quote accurate figures that is given by ‘The Express Tribune’ and ‘Real Per Capita Income growth rate’ figures that I calculated and putting them down, here.

You would see that … even though figures I earlier quoted may not be accurate (obviously, due to my mistakes), but’Per Capita Income growth rate’ being highest during Musharraf period, that I claimed in my earlier post, stands correct … when using ‘The Express Tribune’ figures (that must be taken from PBS) and ‘Population chart’.

Actually, even though my earlier calculated figures had error, overall position of growth during most ruler’s period were accurate (especially ‘growth rate’ and ‘per capita income growth rate’ position of Zia, Ayub and Musharraf periods).

Anyhow, while recalculating growth rate figure during Musharraf period using PBS site, I realized that there was error. Reason is that, it was tedious job, especially when I was reading figures from PBS screen, closing the screen to quickly copy the figure on calculator, repeating the procedure for next figure, and this I have to do for each figure (comprising around 54 years from 1959 to 2013). I normally recheck figures and calculations before posting, to minimize errors, but I did not do this time, and error happened.

Anyhow, once finding error, I did not go through calculations again, as it is quite tedious thing to do (I have explained the method and anyone interested can do the exercise themselves). In the end, I am assuming that what is mentioned in ‘The express Tribune’ must be correct.

That means: Using average real growth rate calculated and given in ‘The Pakistan Tribune’ and average Pakistan population growth calculated from date given in chart (from site below) … we can calculate average real per capita income growth at these different periods. We get table below:

[TABLE=“width: 566”]

Ruler
Overall Ave annual growth rate (%)
Ave pop growth (%)
(estimated)
Ave Per cap income
growth rate (%)
(estimated)

Zia
5.88
3.3 %
2.5 %

Ayub
5.82
2.6 %
3.14 %

Musharraf
5.16
1.9 %
3.2 %

BeNazir
5.08

Bhutto
4.83

Yahya
4.38

Nawaz
4.06

Iskandar
Mirza
3.02

Ghulam
Muhammad
2.95

Zardari
2.62

Sites for figures used and calculations:

Average real economic growth rate of Pakistan:
Setting the record straight: Not all dictators equal, nor all democrats incompetent – The Express Tribune

Average population growth calculated from data given in chart:
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=Pakistan%20population%20growth%20rate]

Average population growth rate calculation:

Zia: 1978 … 1988 = 11 years:
2 years: 3.2 %
3 years: 3.3 %
6 years: 3.4 %
On average population growth was 3.3 % a year

Ayub: 1960 … 1969 = 10 years
1 year: 2.4 %
2 years: 2.5 %
4 years: 2.6 %
3 years: 2.7 %
On average population growth was 2.6 % a year

Musharraf: 2000 … 2008 = 9 years
1 year: 2.3 %
1 year: 2.1 %
3 years: 1.9 %
4 years: 1.8 %
On average population growth was 1.9 % a year

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Guys, cool off… atleast for Ramadan :chai:

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Saleem: Although your method of calculation is accurate who actually uses such tedious figures? Even then the figures you posted take into account population growth which still isn't very accurate portrayal of overall economic outlook. At the end of the day inequality plays a huge role in developing countries inclusive of the spread of income.

So, don't get me wrong its all and good statistically but the overall picture only knows one side of a truly 3D face.

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

Muslims in trouble every where ,
Just think of te days of Muslim Ummah before this waris of Abdullah ibne Ubee ,The traitor ,Mardood

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Re: Everything is NOT Zia’s fault – here are 6 reasons why

threads like this make you come back to GS........some quality posts and hard work!