Re: Eve of the Generals’ lotto 2007
And more 
Musharraf keeps new COAS’ name close to his chest
By Ansar Abbasi
ISLAMABAD: Loyalty will possibly be the key factor but General Musharraf may spring a surprise while making top military appointments in the coming few weeks, including the all-important post of the vice chief of army staff (VCOAS) – the future army chief.
Musharraf, who is to doff his uniform by Nov 15 this year, is keeping his cards close to his chest and there is hardly anyone amongst the top military commanders having any idea as to who would be promoted as a four star general and appointed as the VCOAS and the chairman joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC). The next VCOAS will become the army chief when Musharraf sheds his uniform.
The incumbent CJCSC General Ehsanul Haq, and VCOAS General Ahsan Saleem Hayat are retiring on October 8. Prior to this deadline, Musharraf is expected to make top-level promotions against these anticipated vacancies anytime during this month.
According to sources, three factors – seniority, competence and loyalty – are generally considered for promotion of officers to the top-most posts of VCOAS/COAS and CJCSC. Seniority is important for the acceptability of the top commander in the senior ranks of the army.
Competence is always important but in the present situation it is all the more vital because of the serious challenges that the new army chief has to confront. The challenges are to restore the image of the army and redeem its respect among the civilians. The new army chief will have to show and prove to the people that he is a true professional.
Second and all the more crucial challenge would be the US pressure, its war on terror and the ongoing operations in the tribal areas, Waziristan in particular. Only through his competence and professionalism, the chief would keep a balance between the US pressure and the local sensitivities involved. He will have to clear the general perception that our army is fighting America’s war.
Loyalty is the third but in the present situation would possibly be the major factor in the appointment of VCOAS. Musharraf would definitely want that the future army chief should be his most trusted man. Musharraf would also expect from the army to come to his aid when he needs it and that there should be an army chief on whom he can count.
Strong-headed Lt Generals have, therefore, little chance to dream for the key post. Background interviews with those who know a lot about who’s who among our Generals, confirm the fact that amongst the three star generals, Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (DG ISI) Lt Gen Ashfaq Kiyani and Chief of General Staff (CGS) Lt Gen Salahuddin Satti are generally known in the military circles as the most trusted top commanders of Musharraf. But still no one is sure if anyone of them would be picked up for the key slot of the VCOAS.
Satti, though a competent professional and a respected officer, having varied experience, has the greatest disadvantage of being too low in the seniority list of Lt Generals. He has served under Musharraf on different occasions but the most memorable role of Satti that made him the most trusted man of Musharraf was that of Commander 111 Brigade. These were Satti’s troops that conducted the October 12, 1999 successful military takeover in Islamabad. His role in that adventure, however, might not be an advantage if the appointing authority had been some civilian face.
But to promote Satti as four star general would mean to supersede, at least, 12 Lt Generals. Such a huge number of supersessions were never seen in the history of Pak Army and is unlikely too even this time.
Kiyani is generally reputed as a competent, sharp and mature professional, who has always been respected in the military circles. His recent involvement in the deal-dialogue with Benazir Bhutto is the only negative thing attached to his otherwise excellent career.
Although, never in the past any ISI chief could make it to the top-most military post, Kiyani is the most secure bet for his promotion as a four star general. However, still no one is sure if the ISI chief would get the post of the VCOAS.
Kiyani is second on the seniority list following Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, DG Strategic Plan Division. Kidwai is extremely loyal to Musharraf. Kidwai is also beneficiary of the system as he is one of the few exceptions where a Lt Gen was given extension. Kidwai is not a choice for the VCOAS because he has never commanded any division or corps. But some believe that he could be considered for promotion as four star general against the post of CJCSC.
Lt Gen Malik Arif Hayat, Director General C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence), who is the brother of Malik Asif Hayat, secretary labour, is third on the seniority list after Kiyani but is unlikely to get promotion. He has not commanded any corps.
Lt Gen Tariq Majeed, the Corps Commander Rawalpindi, on account of his seniority, competence and loyalty is generally named along with Kiyani for the promotion. Many believe that the top two slots would be shared by this duo.
Between Tariq Majeed and Satti, there are seven three star generals including Mohammad Safdar, Ather Ali, Mohammad Sabir, Imtiaz Hussain, Muhammad Afzal Muzzaffar and Hamid Rab Nawaz. Only Sabir and Hussain are guessed as serious contenders.
A source while saying that Musharraf may spring a surprise but to his reckoning the possible combinations of CJCSC-VCOAS could be Kiyani-Majeed; Kidwai-Kiyani; Kiyani-Sabir; and Kiyani-Imtiaz. According to one source’s estimation, Ahsan Saleem Hayat could also be allowed to continue for being a trusted and time-tested man.