Eric Margolis

Sun, December 19, 2004

West has bloodied hands

By Eric Margolis – Contributing Foreign Editor

http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSImages2003/margolis_eric66.jpg

Who was the first high government official to authorize use of mustard gas against rebellious Kurdish tribesmen in Iraq?

If your answer was Saddam Hussein’s cousin, the notorious “Chemical Ali” – aka Ali Hassan al-Majid – you’re wrong.

The correct answer: Sainted Winston Churchill. As colonial secretary and secretary for war and air, he authorized the RAF in the 1920s to routinely use mustard gas against rebellious Kurdish tribesmen in Iraq and against Pashtun tribes on British India’s northwest frontier.

http://ads5.canoe.ca/event.ng/Type=count&ClientType=2&AdID=26537&FlightID=14379&TargetID=3890&Segments=2371,4176,5882,6016,6020,6027,6038,6143,6221,6273,6274,6802,7716,7874&Targets=439,2575,3821,3420,2643,3890&Values=25,31,43,51,60,72,78,82,92,100,110,150,152,213,255,316,332,334,342,343,344,345,347,379,380,396,490,493,860,1281,1314,1445,1467,1544,1551,1567,1570,1620,1946,2293,2307,2350,2435,2540,2553,2570,2686,2698,2700,2702,2703,2788,3070,3079&RawValues=USERID%2Cc0a8dc0e-2178-1105639319-4&random=cknNKmR,bbaaelNcbuNrx

Iraq’s U.S.-installed regime has just announced al-Majid, one of Saddam’s most brutal henchmen, will stand trial next week for war crimes.

Al-Majid is accused of ordering the 1988 gassing of Kurds at Halabja that killed over 5,000 civilians. He led the bloody suppression of Iraq’s Shias, killing tens of thousands. These were the same Shias whom former U.S. president George Bush called to rebel against Saddam’s regime, then sat back and did nothing while they were crushed.

The Halabja atrocity remains murky. The CIA’s former Iraq desk chief claims Kurds who died at Halabja were killed by cyanide gas, not nerve gas, as is generally believed.

At the time, Iraq and Iran were locked in the ferocious last battles of their eight-year war. Halabja was caught between the two armies that were exchanging salvos of regular and chemical munitions. Only Iran had cyanide gas. If the CIA official is correct, the Kurds were accidentally killed by Iran, not Iraq.

But it’s also possible al-Majid ordered an attack. Kurds in that region had rebelled against Iraq and opened the way for invading Iranian forces.

What’s the difference between the U.S. destroying the rebellious Iraqi city of Fallujah and Saddam destroying rebellious Halabja? What difference does it make if you’re killed by poison gas, artillery or 2,000-pound bombs?

“Chemical Ali” was a brute of the worst kind in a regime filled with sadists. I personally experienced the terror of Saddam’s sinister regime over 25 years, culminating in threats to hang me as a spy.

Saddam Hussein and his entourage should face justice. But not in political show trials just before U.S.-“guided” Iraqi elections nor in Iraqi kangaroo courts. They should be sent to the UN’s war crimes tribunal in The Hague, where Saddam should be charged with the greatest crime he committed – the invasion of Iran, which caused one million casualties.

Britain, the U.S., Kuwait and Saudi Arabia convinced Iraq to invade Iran, then covertly supplied Saddam with money, arms, intelligence, and advisers. Meanwhile, Israel secretly supplied Iran with $5 billion US in American arms and spare parts while publicly denouncing Iran for terrorism.

Up to their ears

Who supplied “Chemical Ali” with his mustard and nerve gas? Why, the West, of course. In late 1990, I discovered four British technicians in Baghdad who told me they had been “seconded” to Iraq by Britain’s ministry of defence and MI6 intelligence to make chemical and biological weapons, including anthrax, Q-fever and plague, at a secret laboratory at Salman Pak.

The Reagan administration and Thatcher government were up to their ears in backing Iraq’s aggression, apparently with the intention to overthrow Iran’s Islamic government and seize its oil. Italy, Germany, France, South Africa, Belgium, Yugoslavia, Brazil, Chile and the USSR all aided Saddam’s war effort against Iran, which was even more a victim of naked aggression than was Kuwait in 1991.

I’d argue senior officials of those nations that abetted Saddam’s aggression against Iran and supplied him with chemicals and gas should also stand trial with Ali and Saddam.

What an irony it is to see U.S. forces in Iraq now behaving with much the same punitive ferocity as Saddam’s army and police – bombing rebellious cities, arresting thousands, terrorizing innocent civilians, torturing captives and sending in tanks to crush resistance.

In other words, Saddamism without Saddam. A decade ago, this column predicted that when the U.S. finally overthrew Saddam, it would need to find a new Saddam.

Finally, let’s not forget that when Saddam’s regime committed many of its worst atrocities against rebellious Kurds and Shiites, it was still a close ally of Washington and London. The West paid for and supplied Saddam’s bullets, tanks, gas and germs. He was our regional SOB. Our hands are very far from clean.

Re: Eric Margolis

Sun, December 26, 2004

Terror wars can be risky

By Eric Margolis -- Contributing Foreign Editor

TERRORISTS WERE murdering politicians, police and prominent citizens, kidnapping entire families for huge ransoms, blowing up power stations, and blocking main roads, causing paralysis in major urban areas.

Iraq 2004? No. Latin America in the late 1960s and 1970s.

Marxist urban guerrillas were destabilizing Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia and fighting wars in Colombia, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Attempts this week by Chile's left-leaning government to lay renewed charges against retired Gen. Augusto Pinochet, that nation's 89-year-old former military ruler who crushed Marxist rebels in the 1970s, are a vivid reminder of what happens when "wars on terror" are declared and armed forces given a free hand to win them.

Latino Marxist guerrillas -- Argentina's Montoneros, Peru's Sendero Luminoso, and Uruguay's Tupamaros -- nearly brought those nations to their knees. Tupamaros became a role model for West Germany's Bader Meinhof group and Palestinian Marxists.

These Latin communist groups were supported, to vary- ing degrees, by Cuba's DGI intelligence service and its Soviet big brother, the KGB. Powerful left-wing factions within the Catholic Church and foreign sympathizers also aided the insurgents in their campaign to communize South America.

Crush the rebels

Facing internal chaos and economic collapse caused by Marxist guerrillas, governments declared a "war on terrorism" and ordered their armies and security forces to crush the rebels by any necessary means.

Chile's armed forces overthrew the Cuban and Soviet-backed Marxist president, Salvador Allende, arrested thousands of leftists, tortured many, and killed 3,000 or more. In Argentina, the army killed or "disappeared" 20,000 leftists and tortured thousands more in what was known as the "Dirty War."

Some 200,000 peasants died in Guatemala's civil war.

The intelligence agencies of Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia jointly launched "Operation Condor" to root out Marxists at home and abroad.

This notorious campaign of assassination, torture and mass arrest was patterned on the CIA's "Operation Phoenix.

During the Vietnam War, 30,000 Vietnamese communists and sympathizers were "taken out," to use the current euphemism for cold-blooded murder.

The hard-core Latin American communists were not gentle social reformers, as their leftist supporters in North America and Europe pretended.

They were ruthless, ideological killers whose heroes were mass murderers Mao, Ho Chi Minh, and Stalin.

Right-wing regimes and their middle-class supporters knew they would face firing squads or gulags if the left won.

Stalinist Cuba provided a vivid example.

After a decade of killing, torture, disappearances and mass arrests, Latin America's military crushed the Marxist "terroristas."

Military regimes gave way to democratic governments which, in the 1990s, began prosecuting military officers for crimes committed during the Dirty War.

Gen. Pinochet, who, ironically, opened the way for democracy and prosperity in Chile, became the icon of military brutality.

The same "dirty war" process has been happening in the United States since 9/11.

That attack, a massive criminal-political act, quickly led to a militarized response. President George Bush ordered U.S. armed forces to invade Afghanistan, then Iraq.

Shocking FBI documents just revealed by the American Civil Liberties Union show the White House apparently gave the military and intelligence agencies carte blanche to use any means, including torture.

Senior members of the White House, Pentagon and national security agencies should think hard about the last "war on terrorism."

Re: Eric Margolis

Sun, January 2, 2005

U.S. dollar's freefall to have global effect

Add China's banking system to the mix, Eric Margolis writes, and it's a recipe for disaster

By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor

Here are what will be the big stories of 2005, according to my cloudy crystal ball: - The killer tsunami that struck Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and India a week ago will cause years of ongoing economic damage and human tragedy. Damage to Thailand will be quickly repaired. But Indonesia and Sri Lanka, both rent by decade-old civil wars, will particularly suffer.

  • The biggest problem the world faces this new year is the continuing fall of the U.S. dollar. The Bush administration's reckless spending, ruinously expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (now costing as much as the Vietnam War), America's galloping trade deficit and credit spending frenzy are creating the perfect economic storm.

Japan and China's central banks may give up trying to artificially shore up the U.S. dollar by buying U.S. currency and securities. A plunging dollar could cause foreign investors to start dumping U.S. securities and assets. The result: A potential worldwide financial crisis that could collapse the housing bubble, cause interest rates to soar, and send securities markets into freefall.

  • China's banking system is a house of cards. Uncontrolled credit expansion has fuelled China's property boom and international buying spree. Banks are swamped by bad, non-performing loans made to huge, money-losing state-owned corporations. Collapse of China's insolvent banking system would threaten world financial markets.

  • The U.S.-led occupation of Iraq is a disaster for all concerned. The war is slowly being lost. The big question in 2005 is if and how President George W. Bush will extricate the U.S. from this catastrophe, which is costing $6 billion US per month. The elections in Iraq four weeks from today won't resolve this huge mess.

  • "Terrorism" -- the insurgency against U.S. domination of the Muslim world and its resources -- will intensify even after Osama bin Laden is killed. He has created a new, powerful ideological movement that will continue to shake the Muslim world and challenge its corrupt, autocratic rulers and their foreign masters.

  • As the U.S. gets sucked ever deeper into its disastrous crusade against the Muslim world, it may -- possibly with Israel -- attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure, or invade Syria. An attack on Iran would leave the U.S. garrison in Iraq trapped amid a sea of hostile Shia -- as well as Sunnis.

  • A real, viable peace between Israel and the Palestinians seems unlikely. Israel's PM Ariel Sharon already has everything he wants, and, according to U.S. National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, has "wrapped Bush around his little finger." So why make concessions? Palestinians will remain trapped in their giant open-air prison.

  • Now that Vladimir Putin has crushed all domestic political and business opposition, his control over Russia is absolute. Only the courageous Chechen mujahadeen have resisted Putin's restoration of Kremlin autocracy. Putin is determined to rebuild the old Soviet Union. Watch for him to put increasing pressure on Ukraine in the wake of last week's election.

The Bush-Putin alliance will strengthen. By regaining state control of Russia's oil industry, Putin is poised to become a kingpin of world oil, even an equal to the Saudi royals -- if he can raise enough cash to tap his nation's vast but remote deposits.

  • The European Union, for all its growing pains, economic doldrums, and bureaucratic obesity, has replaced the United States as the world's champion of human rights and support for civilized world order.

By contrast, under Bush, the U.S. has become a reactionary power devoted to protecting the status quo in league with Britain, Russia, China and India. In short, a re-run of the Holy Alliance of 1815 in which Europe's autocrats sought to protect their power and privileges, and halt the rise of bourgeois democracy.

  • Look for an increasingly independent-minded Europe and China to draw closer strategically as a result of the Bush administration's aggressive policies. Russia will play both sides, backing the U.S. in its "anti-terror" campaigns, and, discreetly, China, in opposing U.S. influence in East Asia. European arms may begin to flow to China in 2005.

  • Revolution is under way in Saudi Arabia. The U.S.-backed royal family will be increasingly besieged in 2005. As for U.S. claims it will promote democracy in the Muslim world, any honest votes there will produce pro-Islamic parties advocating opposition to Israel, higher oil prices, and eviction of U.S. influence from the region.

So no true democracy, just U.S.-implemented "guided democracy" in Iraq, meaning a Vichy regime that keeps U.S. bases, sells oil cheap, makes nice to Israel, and allows U.S. firms to exploit Iraq's wealth.

Re: Eric Margolis

Sun, January 9, 2005

Aid effort shows best of U.S.

By Eric Margolis -- Contributing Foreign Editor

The Kwaktiutl native people of British Columbia used to hold a ceremony called a "potlatch" to decide who was the biggest man in the tribe.

The person who gave away the most gifts was the winner.

This week in Jakarta, the world's leading nations competed in a gigantic potlatch to see who could give the most money to help victims of the deadly Dec. 26 tsunami that ravaged southern Asia's coasts and islands.

The total aid promised following these meetings -- over $4 billion.

As of this writing, Australia leads with a whopping $1.2 billion US, followed by Germany with $664 million, Japan $500 million, the U.S. $350 million, Norway $183 million, France $103 million, and so on down to the Arab oil states -- who collectively anted up a measly $42 million, the cost of a heavy night of roulette at Monaco's Grand Casino.

Politicians everywhere -- particularly in Scandinavia and Germany, which lost many citizens -- are scared of emotional voters demanding action after seeing the tsunami catastrophe on TV. Untelevised disasters, like the 1970 cyclone that killed hundreds of thousands in Bangladesh, or 2 million malaria deaths annually, go unremarked.

Money for the half-million tsunami survivors is not the primary problem. What's really needed is efficient aid distribution in the worst-hit areas of Indonesia and Sri Lanka. As in many past disasters, mountains of supplies are piling up, rotting in the heat and being stolen or sold.

Thailand is already patching up hard-hit Phuket and other Andaman Sea resorts. Tourists are pouring into this nation's splendid, well-run resorts.

India, prickly as ever, refused all foreign aid. Its military is ably handling disaster relief. But Sri Lanka and Indonesia's Aceh region, both rent by civil wars, remain desperately in need of hi-tech foreign logistical support.

Having felt shame over the brutal colonial war in Iraq, this writer was filled once again with pride in America as the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and the Marines raced to the rescue in Aceh and Sri Lanka. I was particularly elated to see the Lincoln in action. I sailed aboard her and hold honourary carrier aviator's wings for landing and taking off from this great warship.

Thailand's Ubon air base, from which B-52s and F-105 Thunderchiefs once bombed North Vietnam, is the U.S. nerve centre co-ordinating the rescue mission. Americans remain the world's grand masters at mass logistics, the key to their victory in World War II.

This Asian mission of mercy, not the sordid oil war in Iraq, is what the United States is all about.

President George Bush, with his uncanny knack for blundering abroad, took three days to even comment on the tsunami. His initial offer of a paltry $15 million in aid provoked outrage across Asia. U.S. forces in Iraq spend more than that before breakfast.

Washington's ham-handed attempt to cut the UN out of the rescue effort by forming a separate aid group has also provoked anger and dismay across the globe. This is no time for the politics of revenge.

Shamed by world condemnation, Washington, which has $18 billion in its Iraq war budget, finally upped the ante. But even at $350 million (not including its naval contribution), U.S. aid is still only half of Canada's generosity on a per-capita basis. China, which aspires to world power, offered just over $60 million, less than tiny Denmark.

Whether the bigger U.S. contribution will lessen Muslim hostility to U.S. policies, as Washington hopes, remains to be seen. India openly voiced concerns heard in Asia that U.S. intervention will be used to establish a permanent military presence in this strategic region, which both Delhi and Beijing see as their sphere of influence.

While human suffering here has been biblical, the economic effects of the tsunami on the region will be limited. Recovery in most places is well under way. The disaster may intensify Aceh's half-century-old independence struggle from Indonesian rule, and do little to reduce tensions in war-torn Sri Lanka.

But, political cynicism aside, it's still encouraging to see the world react in a heartfelt and civilized manner. Too bad it takes a natural catastrophe to bring this out. Time now to begin preparing for the next calamity.

Re: Eric Margolis

Sun, January 16, 2005

Top marks to Canucks

By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor

FORENSIC TEAMS from a dozen nations are conducting the gruesome task of trying to identify horribly bloated, decomposing victims of the December tsunami that killed 5,000 in Thailand and 155,000 in neighbouring countries.

I flew down to Phuket this past week with Ontario's former lieutenant-governor, Hilary Weston, one of Canada's foremost diplomats and humanists, sent by Premier Dalton McGuinty to assess aid to the tsunami-ravaged region and assure continuity of the relief effort.

Canada is conducting an intelligent, targeted relief campaign that sets a standard for other nations. Prime Minister Paul Martin arrive here today, and will proceed to battered Sri Lanka tomorrow.

We spent a day with Dr. James Young, Ontario's very capable commissioner of emergency management, who, with a group of RCMP officers, has played an important role in identifying tsunami victims. Young led forensic teams in the Swissair crash, World Trade Center attack and Bali bombings. Call him CSI Canada.

Hilary Weston's mission is important because most governments quickly forget promises of aid made during disasters, and often ignore rural victims.

Follow-up and continuity are essential. Canada has pledged $425 million over five years, making it one of the top five donor nations.

The worst damage here occurred on the mainland north of Phuket. Resorts have been patched up and are again ready for resort business.

Meanwhile, Thailand is exhuming 2,000 hastily buried victims for identification. We watched grieving families searching photos of bloated corpses.

Thailand's prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, who faces upcoming elections, has turned the tsunami disaster into a political bonanza by ably managing the relief effort and rejecting foreign aid. Thaksin's recent brutal repression of southern Thailand's restive Muslims has been totally overshadowed by the tsunami disaster.

OIL, GAS-RICH ACEH

I also flew down Burma's storm-ravaged Andaman Sea coast. Burma's secretive hermit government understated the number of dead, but damage appears limited, and the real number of dead likely does not exceed 150.

While Thailand and Burma have disaster relief well under control, neighbouring Indonesia's province of Aceh, where 100,000 died, is a mess. Jakarta just ordered foreign aid missions to get out by the end of March and has banned all journalists, human rights groups and aid workers from Aceh.

Indonesia fears foreign powers will move in on oil-and-gas-rich Aceh, where a bloody secessionist rebellion has festered for five decades.

A similar process occurred in Indonesia's former East Timor province, which was detached from Indonesia by foreign pressure and is now falling under Australian influence.

In fact, Australia, strongly backed by the U.S., is fast assuming the role of regional superpower and policeman. Australia's conservative government is beefing up its navy and mobile intervention forces.

Indonesia and Australia have been rivals and edgy neighbours since the 1960s. Indonesia fears Australia and the U.S. will use the tsunami crisis to assert influence over the entire region.

The rebellion by the separatist Free Aceh Movement has been totally ignored by the world which showed great sympathy for Christian secessionists of East Timor years ago, but little for Aceh's Muslim separatists.

Aceh was an independent Islamic sultanate until conquered in a bloody war by the Netherlands in the 1870s.

The Dutch, many of whom still complain bitterly about harsh German occupation in World War II, acted with far greater ferocity in colonizing Indonesia, massacring tens of thousands of Indonesians and Achenese.

Indonesia took over Aceh after gaining independence after World War II. Indonesia's muddled disaster relief will likely intensify the rebellion in Aceh, which feels itself exploited and neglected by the central government.

Washington, however, is branding the Aceh independence movement Islamic terrorists, just as it has done to Muslim separatists in the Philippines -- a misguided policy certain to create new crises in this turbulent part of southern Asia.

Humanitarian relief, alas, is quickly turning into political rivalry.

Re: Eric Margolis

Sun, January 23, 2005

Old 'evil' city's a powerhouse

By Eric Margolis -- Contributing Foreign Editor

Back in the 1930s, shanghai was the wickedest city on Earth. Just beyond the stately buildings of the Bund, Nanjing Road and the European Concessions lay squalid hovels, armies of leprous beggars, thousands of child prostitutes, and opium dens. Shanghai teemed with gun runners, con men, spies, mysterious White Russians and Jewish refugees.

This was the fabled seaport of Marlene Dietrich and Humphrey Bogart, of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and his dragon-lady wife, who reportedly proposed to U.S. Republican front-runner Wendell Wilkie they ditch their spouses, marry, and rule the world together.

It was the evil-reputed port that gave us the term "Shanghied" -- being drugged, knocked out, pressganged aboard a freighter or otherwise robbed (an experience this writer barely escaped one night up a dark Shanghai alley).

This was the revolutionary city of the young communist movement led by Mao and Chou En-lai, where French author Andre Malraux watched Marxists being thrown live into locomotive furnaces. The fief of Shanghai's Godfather, Big-Eared Du, boss of the notorious Green Gang and Chiang's ally. Asia's capital of cocaine, heroine and white slaves that was fought over by China's 1930s warlords, with names like The Dogmeat General, and The Perfect Governor.

Shanghai still retains a sinister flavour. But today, it has become China's economic powerhouse, the world's second busiest port, exporting $74 billion US annually, with 13 million registered residents and 7-10 million itinerant labourers, making Shanghai more populous than Australia.

A few nights ago, being driven around in a military limousine, I saw 22 huge trucks cued up to deliver concrete to one of the city's scores of 24/7 skyscraper projects.

Shanghai's natives have their own impenetrable dialect outsiders cannot understand. They are brash, often pushy, commercially gifted, and always in a rush. A native New Yorker like me feels right at home here in China's Big Wonton.

Shanghai has also resumed its role as China's hippest, most avant-garde, cosmopolitan city, filled with cultural events, galleries, spectacular restaurants and dazzling architecture that makes the downtown look like a cross between Manhattan and a futuristic capital in a science fiction film.

The city has now become one of the world's hottest destinations.

BUSINESS ELITE FLED

When the communists took over Shanghai in 1949, its business elite fled to British Hong Kong, quickly turning that port into an economic giant. Today, Shanghai is beginning to eclipse snooty Hong Kong, which is looking rather old and tired compared to Shanghai's pulsating economic power.

Over dinner at Hong Kong's exclusive Bank of China Club, filled with retro Maoist chic, a businessman confessed to me that his city was becoming a backwater compared to brash Shanghai.

New factories are sprouting everywhere up the Yangtze River west of Shanghai, China's most dynamic industrial corridor, bringing the benefits of the coastal boom to the long-neglected, impoverished interior. Shanghai's hinterland has become the world's factory, producing everything from black socks to the most advanced technology. Growth is held back only by shortages of power and steel.

Unrestrained credit, a torrent of foreign investment, and China's get-rich-quick policies are producing a dangerous credit bubble and runaway 11-15% annual growth. The communist party clearly has a tiger by the tail.

I lunched with a general who had been secretary to China's late leader, Deng Xiaoping. In 1992, Deng went to southern China and proclaimed economic liberalization and free markets. Deng's reforms set the stage for China's massive boom, unleashing the long pent-up economic power and natural talents of China's 1.3 billion people.

Deng had the wisdom to decree that China had first to become a modern economic power before it could develop offensive military power. Today, China is nearing the point where its surging economy, the world's seventh largest, will make it a formidable geopolitical rival challenging U.S. power in north and south Asia.

The likely sale of advanced European arms to China will modernize its armed forces, allowing them to project military power beyond littoral regions. China's voracious industrial appetite is making it America's major rival for Mideast, African and Asian oil and for other strategic materials.

So Big Apple and Hong Kong, watch out! The Big Wonton is on a roll.

Re: Eric Margolis

Sun, January 30, 2005

Real freedom still far off

By Eric Margolis -- Contributing Foreign Editor

Will today's elections for 7,785 unknown candidates in violence-racked Iraq mark the dawn of genuine Mideast democracy, as U.S. President George W. Bush claims, or be another step deeper into the bloody quagmire in Mesopotamia?

First, no election held under a foreign military occupation resulting from an unjustified war is legal under international law. During the Cold War, elections staged by the Soviets after invading Afghanistan, Hungary and Czechoslovakia were rightly denounced by the U.S. as "frauds" and the leaders elected as "stooges."

Second, Shiites, excluded from political power since Britain created Iraq in 1921, will win since they represent 60% of the population. Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a fatwa, or religious decree, ordering the faithful to vote for the Shiites' coalitions.

Sistani made what some see as a pact with the devil. He is abetting at least temporary U.S. occupation and exploitation of oil-rich Iraq in exchange for Washington handing power to his fellow "good" Shiites -- not to be confused with Iran's "bad" Shiites, who are facing U.S.-Israeli attack. "Good" Shiites don't sport turbans; they sideline clerics and avoid angry Islamic mutterings.

Iraq's pro-U.S. Kurds will elect their own coalitions determined to keep their oil revenues and create a state independent in all but name.

Sunnis have lost all the power and perks they previously enjoyed, they lead resistance against U.S. occupation. They will be the odd men out, at the mercy of the hated Shiites, a sect long persecuted by mainstream Sunni Muslims as dangerous heretics and fanatics.

Third, the U.S.-"guided" regime emerging from the vote will be one of form without much substance, unless a new Shiite regime revolts and asserts its independence.

For now, Iraq's real government will continue to be the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, the world's largest, and 150,000 U.S. occupation troops.

Every important Iraqi ministry is run by U.S. "advisers" who call the shots and allocate all spending. Power comes from guns and money. The U.S. controls and pays Iraq's low-morale police and native troops who, in a nation with 70% unemployment, mostly serve to feed families.

VOTE TO END MISERY

Iraq's entire budget comes from sporadic oil exports and U.S.-dispensed aid (the latest bill for Bush's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan: $240 billion US).

Many Iraqis will vote for anyone promising to end violence and social misery. But just as many nationalists and Islamists, excluded from the election process, are voting their own way -- with bullets and bombs. Washington calls them "terrorists," but the UN Charter enshrines people's right to resist foreign occupation.

A "Muslim-lite" turbanless Shiite regime allied to Washington will immediately have to face Kurdish secessionists and Sunni insurgents. Younger, more nationalistic Shiites with connections to Tehran will try to oust the "quietist" collaborationist Sistani faction once Shiites are firmly in power. More, rather than less, violence is likely, with Sistani a prime bomb target.

Iraq, like Humpty Dumpty, is broken and may never be put together. That's fine with the Bush administration's pro-Israel hawks who engineered this war. A shattered Iraq will never challenge Israel's nuclear monopoly.

But not fine for the U.S. A senior commander just warned that 130,000 U.S. troops must stay in Iraq until at least 2007, maybe much longer. Iraqization, like Vietnamization, has proved a chimera. So, too, plans to plunder Iraq's oil. Meanwhile Pentagon brass are livid over neo-con plans to launch a new war against Israel's principal enemy, Iran.

This "guided" election is Bush's best last chance to declare a titanic victory, then bring all his troops home to a big ticker-tape parade before Iraq dissolves into bloody chaos or is taken over by Iran. Otherwise, the U.S. will be stuck forever to its Iraqi tar baby, ruing the day it overthrew old ally, Saddam.

A truly independent regime will eventually emerge in Baghdad when the U.S. finally runs low on money, men and crusading will power.

We'll know for sure real freedom has dawned in Iraq when Baghdad orders U.S. troops out, raises oil prices, rebuilds its armed forces, and renews support for the Palestinian cause.

Re: Eric Margolis

Holi Holi Margoli(s).

Chuggie, Allah :swt: has given you a coconut, why don’t you try to use it?

:jhanda:

Re: Eric Margolis

any hope of summarizing, or has that notion escaped Gupshup these days...

Re: Eric Margolis

I would settle for links to every article.

Re: Eric Margolis

But definitely according to rules, the topic starter should provide his own comments as well. Without which the thread should be tossed anyway. Else, this'd be a cut-paste galore.

Re: Eric Margolis

If the message is to not the liking of some the they ought not to shoot the messanger. I wonder if cutting and pasting would be such a faux pas had the articles orginated from the AEI, ADL, New American Century, worldnet daily, drudge report etc. the usual christian-zionist sources?

As for the cardinal rule of posting my comments to legitimize the thread: I concur with Eric Margolis.....