**Zakk: ** Hmm, not quite true actually. You can say investing in industry has been risky, but i guess if one is to invest (especially from a foreign investor perspective) now is the time to get in! I can assure that there are some sane heads in the Finance Ministry, Central Bank, the SEC and the stock exchanges. With whatever little understanding of the market i have, i believe the general direction in which the economy is headed and especially the banking sector reforms will go a long way in promoting a more credit-savvy banking sector. As the credit culture in local banking sector evolves and as more and more corporates embrace the Code of Corporate Governance, it will in itself have far reaching consequences in terms of lower non-performing loans portfolios for banks and better financial reporting and hence greater transparency in transactions of the local corporates.
There has been a paradigm shift in the local banking industry (being an investment banker, i can’t help but come back to my industry :~p). From a 100% nationalized banking base, today, almost 60% of the banking sector is in private hands and with the immiment privatization of Habib Bank, this percentage is expected to improve to 80%. Being conscious of this fact and the evolving consumer-credit culture, the SBP has come up with separate Prudential Regulations for Corporate Banking and Consumer Banking-something which has not been done during the past few decades.
Fiscal policies of the Central Bank are firm and are aimed at guiding the financial markets in a certain direction. Gone are the days when the Central Bank used to be played on by smart foreign banks. I cannot tell you how much kick i get when i see the Central Bank circumvent the local banks bid to notch up the interest rates. :k:
As to the bankruptcy laws, they are in the works and laws on the lines of Chapter 11 are going to be introduced early next year. Heartening is the fact that these laws and regulations (like the earlier mentioned Prudential Regulations) are not being made in isolation-drafts are being circulated amongst all the stakeholders (commercial banks) and their rational suggestions are being applied to refine them.
Well the cut in interest rates has a reason. See, earlier on, till when the banking reforms started to take place (early last year), banks were sitting pretty…stuffed with GOP T-bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds in their portfolios (both of them being risk-free GOP securities)-and were getting more than adequate returns on their investments. This was a no-brainer for them to make productive their assets. The Central Bank saw this, took notice and crashed the interest rates over a period of 6-8 months. Banks frenzied. It was no longer possible for them to earn decent returns by investing in government securities, even so much so as to cover their cost of funds. It was a clear signal from the Central Bank to the banks to pull their socks up and look for more innovative avenues of investments to earn better returns on their assets.
This followed a period where we saw grim faces of the banks…directionless and flooded with liquidity. Then the Central Bank showed the dumb (:D) banks a clear direction: Consumer credit and Mutual Funds. All this time, the government quite wisely took measures at the policy level to pave way for banks to enter into these unchartered or relatively lesser-visited areas in search of better returns. This included reforms in the housing industry which in turn jump-started 40 allied industries (cement, steel, glass etc.)…banks slowly came out and still are coming out with mortgage schemes. You have to remember our cultural mindset as Fraudia mentioned in another thread-it is difficult for a person to envisage himself in a situation where he takes on a debt (mortgage) for say 20 years. These kinds of tenors are unheard of to the commom man. He is afraid. A certain level of primary education is necessary in this respect to dispel unfounded concerns. A shift is in order.
Similarly to promote infrastructure development, the government has come up with linient policies in the oil and gas exploration, telecom and terminal handling businesses. To give benchmarks to the market, longer terms Government Bonds are being introduced for tenors of 10 and 15 years (which would give the commercial and investment banks..benchmarks for pricing their longer gestation periods projects).
Stock market? Hmm…recently there has been a correction which was in order. The market has come down from a high of 4400 points to 3800 points (which is good, since it it hadn’t happened, a bubble burst like the 1994 was in order, which would have damaged investor confidence to no end). However, this time around, two things are significantly different from the 1994 levels of the market (it was the previous best era of the Karachi Stock Exchange). 1) This time around, the market has picked up on account of local investors vs. 1994, where global brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley had introduced Pakistan Stock Funds, and 2) This time, the market is trading at comparatively lower P/W multiples and higher dividend yields. On average, the Karachi Stock Exchange is trading at 7-8 multiple with a 10% dividend yield. Compare this with 1994, where the multiples were 15-16 and dividend yields were low. This reflects that market is valuing the stocks correctly and some level of fundamental analysis is being factored in while pricing the stocks by the market, which is good.
All these facts represent that people here are thinking! :~)
TofiBaba: Aap ne apnay naam ka he store kholne ka idea dia
The thaila idea needs some fine-tuning, but your fast food idea seems reasonable. The capital cost is almost thereabout (what you mentioned) for any fast food outlet (non-franchised/local). The issue is to maintain the standard and consistency of your product. The margins are high, you are correct. Abhi is level par itna paisa thora mushkil hai waisay. Thanks for the thoughts though :~)