Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? --- May be not!

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
1

Pakistan is in the middle of a terrible scarcity of basic things. Food shortages, electricity shortages, and soon to begin gas (natural gas) shortage all have put us in a straight jacket.

There is no way out though, and here is why.

Pakistan like any other country has choices for producing electricity. Each choice has a political or financial cost attached to it. And as of now these costs are enomous. So there is no way Pakistanis can hope for the day we’ll have plenty of electricity.

Let’s look at what we have at the moment. Pakistan is producing electricity from different sources such as:

  1. Hydro Electric dams (Tarbela, and Magla are the biggies with some little ones on the side)
  2. Thermal Electric stations that use natural gas, fuel oil, and diesel
  3. Thermal Electric stations that use coal
  4. Nuclear stations

Our shortage or need at the moment is 10,000 to 15,000 MW. So what do we can or cannot do for our future?

  1. No Hydro electric dam - A major dent in this shortage could have come about from 3,500 MW kala bagh dam. Well that’s out due to political infighting. Basha could add 4,500 MW but we still have to get our act together. Starting now i.e. this very moment it may not deliver electricity until 2020.

  2. We can’t afford Thermal units. It is too costly to produce and Pakistani people are unwilling to pay for the produced electricity.

  3. Thermal stations with coal are planned for Sindh province. But Sindhis and the feds cannot agree on the rates and funds. So there is nothing on the horizon.

  4. Nuclear stations. We refused to sign the NPT by following Indians. Now India got a special deal so we are left high and dry. Even now there is no political will to sign the NPT, so there is no way we can get something quick and reliable 1000 MW unit from the West. Chinese have promised. But they are too slow to build and we don’t have money to pay for them.

So we are stuck with dark ages for a long time to come, unless we become pragmatic in our thinking.

2

Re: Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? — May be not!

We discussed similar problem few months back:
http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/293102-plans-16-000-mw-2015-a.html

I guess we can say bye-bye to Kalabagh.

We CAN definitely improve on atleast two fronts which are detrimental to power production/distribution:

  1. Power theft
  2. Line losses

Both of these issues are responsible in a big way for shortage in power. Whatever power is produced it faces lots of line-losses and due to theft power companies are unable to recover their full amount hence unable to pay their own bills/run short on finance etc.

3

Re: Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? --- May be not!

Such projects as KB dam should have been commissioned on a war footing, bypassing the idiocy of politicians. Pakistan is condemned to an eternal existence as a poor, under developed place unless someone does something quite drastic, or we strike oil or a similar resource.

4

and this is why i am here:snooty:
:fraudia:Baba jee will soon solve this problem too

5

Re: Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? --- May be not!

You don't need energy because you don't produce enough... :)

6

Re: Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? --- May be not!

I know onething, about KB Dam, if Musharaf was unable to make it with so much power in most of the provinces, then I dont think any one else in this govt can do it as well.
KB dam issue surely shows how dreadful our politicians and stupid public is.

About building other dams, then really if we would have followed up the plans since 1970's to make one Dam every 15 years, then we would not have been in this problem. I was reading an article lately which said that a scientist proposed a plan to make 1 Nuclear power station per year beginning 1980 for at least 20 years so that Pakistan will have enough energy for the future. But as usual this proposal was sidelined as well.

The latest pact with Chinese N. Plants will also take place from at least 7-10 years and they will produce like 650 MW of energy, I am sure that smaller cities like Multan and Hyderabad would be consuming alone this much energy after few years. So in all we need a big re-vamp to the situation.

7

Re: Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? --- May be not!

We also need population control. Pakistan is a huge mess.

Correctional officers during salah
8

We don't need population control, rather how to use the population for productivity.

9

Interesting!

Yes I agree with your sentiments about our politicians.

However politicians are not the only ones to blame. We as a nation should look at our ownselves to find the real answers.

There are two important aspects to this whole Bijli ki kami story.

  1. Money i.e. $$ and lots of it that is needed to build and run the darn things.
  2. Our views towards international rules.

1. Money or Dollars needed to build power plants

1A-Should we earn the dollars or take a loan?
We do not have money to build any large infrastructure project. Why? As a nation, we do not provide enough services to international community to earn the money. We are net "consumers" of services.

1B. Taking a loan to build the power plants
So far our options have been to invite people build the plant and then charge a predetermined $$ per unit to recover their cost. This model works only when we have consistent income. The answer then again goes back to 1C.

1C. How do we earn bunch of dollars
Well there are few ways to earn bunch of dollars.

  • I - Sell goods and services to the West (net exports) II - Sell goods and services to the Western tourists (local earning)*

Look at Chinese. They work day and night working for Walmart and in return get bunch of dollars. Look at Indians, they work day and night providing call centers, check cashing, and credit card servicing to America, and in return get bunch of dollars. What do we do? We in Pakistan however yell at America day and night. so there are no "bunch of dollars" from net exports.

Same way we are extremely strict and tribal with our tourists. In tourism we behave like Saudi biduins. Unfortunately we do not have oil wealth to compensate for our anti-tourist biduin habits.

So there are no "bunch of dollars" from local earnings either.

Wish we were like Turks and Dubains who have maintained their religion and still be "extremely tourist friendly".

*2. Our views towards international rules. *

We don't care about international treaties. Nawaz Sharif invited S. Korean companies to build motoways. Guess what! the very next PPP government broke the agreements and kicked them out. That didn't set a good precedence for future.

As a nation we don't want to sign NPT so there is no nuclear power plant from the West. While Chinese will take 7-10 years to build a single 650 MW peak plant. France and USA can build 1100 MW plant in less than 3 years and there is no limit as to how many plants they can build.

Thus with our tribal and biduin behavior we ourselves have put into a no-win situation. And only we can get out of this by changing our anarchist views.

10

Re: Electricity crisis: Is there a way out? --- May be not!

I think the best thing at this time is to improve & better what you are already doing...selling air is not an option... :D

Our agricultural/industrial yields turn out to be much more expensive comparing it to the region or some other terretories...we should find ways to produce more with less: Economy!

First filfull the local demand and export the leftovers...you will surprise yourself :D

PS: Exporting rice etc makes little sense while a portion of local population go to bed in a malnutritional mode...

11

Focus on exporting the rice is not the right thing. Finished products exported to the USA and EU are the answer. Working closely with the USA and EU is the answer.

We cannot be good exporting nation if we harbor so much animosity against the West. Isn't it obvious that if you hate your customers, nobody will come to your shop.

Strange thing is that many of anti-West posters on this forum actually live in the West. It is like these posters are trying their best to keep Pakistanis poor while they themselves do the ayashi in the West.

12

Burqaposhx,,, for once I agree with you totally.. the facts you analysed speaks the truth... for once when our past govts and bureaucacy needed to take actions, they were either sleeping or were drunk tothink to make new plants.

The same issue goes with enough of Coal of northern Sind, I am heargin the stories since my childhood, and still I see Pakistan imports some coal instead of using the coal of our own country.
the fact about saudi biduin mentality for the tourism.. man its changing and its changing big time. Saudis have massive plans and they are working out, I saw many Europeans coming to KSA for tourism, specially the Northern and Southern Parts of KSA.

13

You cannot stand on your feet...you are lurking...and you still want to help the west...you are going nowhere...you are a chained slave...your brain does not work...you are dead! Bingo... :)

14

huh!!!! ????

What have you been smoking?

FYI! This is a thread for resolving electricity crisis in PAKISTAN.

If you want to discuss chained slave girls in the West, then open another thread.

BTW did you just watch a B-movie and chained slave girls in the West? May be that explains this mental orgasm.

15

Reading this post of yours leads me to put you on ignore...bingo :)

16

You were doing so good, What happened?

My only concern is that we shouldn't blindly follow the west. We need good thing from the west (development in Science and varies fields, economic development, science & technology) not the bad things (Porn, divorced, western culture, Music, rape, incest).

17

I think this concern reminds of Shaikh Chilli's story. We haven't completed work for even a single penny, and you are talking about porn. Where is your head bro?

Can't you see that we are begging for $15 billion from the West, our cities and towns are enveloped in darkness, and here you are expressing "concern" about divorces and rape? There is something missing here.

Pakistanis and most of the Muslims LOVE to get citizenship where according to you "Porn, divorced, western culture, Music, rape, incest" is all around 24 hours. And yet you are suggesting that Pakistan should be hesitant about having friendly relationship with the West.

Bullay Bullay. Khud to West main jaa kar ayaashi ker li, or hum Pakistanio ko kehtay ho West bohat ganda, bohat ganda. Chi-Chi-Chi.

Is there a logic 101 problem here or what!

18

I agree,

Power theft is so common in Pakistan, almost all the shops (small stores or supermarkets), almost all the houses, in my area work hand in hand with corrupt line mans who are paid few hundred rupees per month for not recording the actual units used. Whats worst is everyone (rich, poor, educated, molvis) bribe wapda line mans and will never complian because of their involvement. Infact, most wapda officers are aware but are quite about this serious issue.

19

Those are not my words, read my post again. Bro, having friendly relationship is one thing but following them blindly is another thing. look at Islamic history and look at western history, compare them? We can't blame west for our problems. They have their own problems and we have our own problems. We need to solve our own problems...if they help us good, if they dont', we still have to solve them.