It’s becoming quite evident now that 2012 is the election year. Probably the elections will take place somewhere in October this year. We can expect a caretaker et up by March/April. Judiciary will ensure an independent Election Commission and a correct voters list, so we can expect a fair elections hopefully this time. Army/Judiciary has exercised unprecedented restraint and together with media/opposition the government’s attempt to become political martyr in the last 3/4 months of their tenure has almost fizzled out now.
In the next few months we are going to see new political alignments. A lot of strong electables from PPP are likely to ditch their parent party specially from rural areas of Punjab. ANP is facing a lot of unpopularity amongst the Pushtun areas in KP. MQM might lose 4/5 seats in Urban Sindh specially in constituencies where we have a sizable Pushtun population. PPP is going to lose a few seats in rural Sindh where some strong candidates specially in lower Sindh and northern Sindh will give them a tough time.
Let’s discuss the new arising situation, and what will be the outcome of the next elections likely to take place during this year.
In Punjab the next election is going to be between PTI and PMLN.. PPP will end up at a distant 3rd position. PTI and PMLN have realized this factor a few months ago and are generally ignoring PPP and taking strong positions against each other. Stage is being set where PTI and PMLN will be taking even stronger positions against each other. PPP will generally concentrate on Sindh this time, and I predict Zulfiqar Mirza will be their front man for electioneering in Sindh this time. They will try to appeal the Sindhi electorate with a victim card.
We can see come seats of MQM going to PTI… as the urban Muhajir vote is somewhat divided this time.. and combining with Pushtun/non Muhajir vote bank.. PTI seems set to put a dent on MQM by winning 3/4 seats from urban Sindh.
My prediction is next govt. will be formed by PMLN.. PPP/Maulana Fazal ur Rehman/ANP will be their main coalition partners. PTI will be a strong opposition… MQM will probably prefer to sit in opposition this time. MQM might be in a position to take advantage of divided rural Sindh election results this time and may be become successful in getting Sindh government.
In this scenario next govt. will not have a friendly opposition like this time. The govt. will be under tremendous pressure to perform.. and may not last more than 3 years. Over all the evolution of electoral politics is taking place in our country. I hope we get a mechanism of changing governments finally without coups and violence.. It will be great for Pakistan..
These are my personal opinions. It doesn’t mean I will vote for PMLN (my vote will be for PTI this time)… it’s not necessary that the forum member will agree with my analysis. Let’s hear some other opinions..
P.S. I am making this thread sticky.. I request forum members to contribute to the thread..
according to my thinking/knowledge that’s how house will be divided if we have elections in next 3 to 6 months:
PPP 60 to 80
PMLN 80 to 110
PMLQ 10 to 15
MQM 20 to 30
ANP 5 to 7
JUI 6 to 8
PMLF 2 - 4
Independent/FATA 15 to 25
Tehreek-e-Insaaf 30 to 50
also don’t forget reserved seats of women/minorities which are 60 + 10 = 70.
Imran needs at least 1.5 to 2 years to make a sizable dent in electoral.
So after all the halla-gulla PMLN will be in best position to form government.
Don't see PML-N winning esp. after their poor performance while in opposition. Even in Punjab many people are not too impressed by PML-N because it is their friendly opposition that has essentially helped this corrupt and incompetent PPP government survive this long and people will remember that when voting next time.
PPP will never form an alliance with PML-N. If it loses the election it will sit in opposition
Personally I won't totally rule out a PPP victory because of their still strong (brain-dead) jiyala vote bank (for whom performance is no criterion) in Southern Punjab and rural Sindh
I am certain that the next election in Punjab will be mainly between PTI and PMLN.
I am saying this because I have met a lot of friends who are in constituency politics. PTI has an edge over PMLN in southern Punjab. PPP is totally disorganized in Punjab this time.. a lot of their own legislature sitting in NA don’t want to carry the liability of running from PPP platform this time due to their performance. Mark my words.. PPP situation will not be very different from 97 election in Punjab this time.
It’s all very evident from political posturing of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan.. Imran is much more pragmatic this time and is not the same Imran of last many years. PMLN leadership consider him a much bigger threat than PPP at the moment..
Imran ready to talk to all parties except PML-N
LAHORE: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan has held PML-N equally responsible of current circumstances, saying that it was just raising slogans of ‘Go Zardari Go’, Geo News reported.
Talking to media here Thursday, Imran Khan refused to talk to Nawaz league, saying that it has deceived twice. He said that PTI is ready to talk to all parties except PML-N.
PTI chairman advised PML-N to resign from assemblies if it is serious.
Tehreek-e-Insaf would not support any military coup, he said and added that any unconstitutional way would not be tolerated.
It's the other way round.. you will see more PTI seats from rural areas because a lot of strong candidates will join PTI in the next few months.. I am aware of the ground position in Southern Punjab where some of these leaders have cult following irrespective of the party. Also don't under estimate Shah Mehmood/Javed Hashmi factor..
Its really difficult to predict the results of these elections as PMLN will lose some seats to PTI in the Punjab, keeping in view the people who have joined PTI from South Punjab (both PMLN and PPP) will lose seats there. To date in rural Sindh despite PPP’s lack luster performance I dont see any political party gaining some ground there. More or less I think presently Sindh seems to be firmly in PPP’s hands. MQM will get its seats, maybe they might concede some seats that they won because of JI boycotting the last election. As far as PMLN’s position outside Punjab is concerned, the party elections both in Sindh and Balochistan have been marred with allegations. So I dont see them proving formidable in those provinces. If ANP loses some seats in KP, the benefit will go to MMA and PTI. PMLN will also lose some seats there in stronghold of Hazara district.
[FONT=Georgia, ‘Times New Roman’, Times, serif]PML-N’s election exposes rift in party ranks
