Election Predictions

[MangoMan]

Re: Election Predictions

@Silaaj

Please share yours as well.

The current scenario makes it seem like PML-N will have an easy way to victory. But things are quite tricky and complex when you compare last elections with the scenario today.

[TABLE=“width: 247”]

Party
2008
2013 Prediction

PPPP
124
85

PML-N
91
100

PML-Q
54
20

MQM
25
20

ANP
13
10

JUI-F
7
5

PML(F)
5
3

Ind
18
15

PPPS
1
1

BNA
1
1

NPP
1
1

In 2008, the above parties combined to bag the 340 seats that were up for election. In 2013, I feel that the results will be as posted above. PPP will lose a significant chunk of its seats, and drop down to the 80s. PML-N will be strong, but not as strong as thought. They may gain a few seats, or may just remain at their previous level. I have listed them at 100 seats. PML-Q and ANP will suffer heavily in popularity. ANP doesnt have many seats to lose, but PML-Q could drop down drastically, as people are forgetting they even exist.

Based on my above predictions, the parties that made up the 340 seats in the 2008 elections, will grab 261 seats, give or take a few. That leaves behind 79 seats up for grabs.

PTI, JI and PAT(awami tehreek) will be the 3 new factors in this election. I see them distributing about 70 of those 79 seats among themselves, with the remaining 9 going to other miscellaneous parties.
PTI…50
JI…15
PAT…5
Misc…9

That would sum up the 340 seats up for grabs. However, this math would make the race very interesting.
PML-N
Out of the major parties, MQM, PMLQ ,PPP and PTI will not ally with PML-N. So if PML-N goes for an alliance with every other party in the list,*** including all independents**,* they end up with 165 seats (not enough for a govt.)
PPP
Out of the major parties, PTI ,PML-N and JI will not ally with PPP. So if PPP allies with every other party, they will get 175 seats (enough for a govt), but that will include very edgy partners like PML-F, Independents, and Misc Parties.
**PTI
**Barring an absolutely outrageous show of support from the public at large, PTI will not have enough to form a govt, as they have repeatedly stated that they will not make an alliance with any status quo party, which includes the main seat winners, i-e PPP, PML-N, MQM, etc.

Of course I could be totally off, but I just feel that the monopoly days are over, and the ruling coalition will be very diluted.

It would be interesting to see what others think. Hopefully your assessments will not be based on party loyalties.

Nice analysis Silaaj.

I think we can get a more realistic picture of the overall situation on the ground if all of us present a picture of our constituencies. Who won last time and what trend/mood are we seeing this time.

For example, my constituency is NA-6 Nowshera-II. Historically, here the battle has always been between ANP and PPP/PPP(S). Here is last year’s result:

This time it seems highly likely that PTI will win this seat. Though I am not in Pakistan but I know families and friends who have joined PTI in bulk and my father who is a staunch supporter of ANP says PTI will give a very tough time to ANP this time. People are not very happy with our current MNA and ANP does not have any good candidate for the next election in our constituency. On the contrary, the person who came second last time has joined PTI though he is unlikely to get a ticket this time. The guy who is most likely getting the ticket from PTI is a new comer but has an extremely good reputation.

So from my constituency, I see PTI beating ANP. The difference from last election:
PTI+1
ANP-1