Re: Election predictions
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I think in a free and fair election the PML Q will fair pretty well, and will definetly get a majority in Punjab, with the PPP taking Sindh, MMA coming out in top in NWFP, but not quite a majority, and a mixed result in Balochistan.
But let me venture an early prediction. Of the 342 seats up for grabs in the National Assembly the final tally could look as follows:-
PML Q - 114 PPP - 86 PML (N) - 34 JUI (F) - 25 MQM - 20 JI - 15 ANP - 10 PML (F) - 6 PPP (Sherpao) - 4 Others (Independents etc) - 28
- Those marked in bold form the present ruling coalition * - 172 seats are required to form a majority govt. - 228 seats are required for a 2/3 majority.
Brother, I don't know why you believe that PPP and PML(N) would get more NA seats than what they got in 2002? What has changed in last 5 years that they became so popular? Again, what made you think that JI, a party that has history of always being a failure in election, would get so many seats?
Plus you wrote that you believe PML(Q) would do fairly well in coming election, still I could not understand that if that is so, how you reduced NA seats they have secured in 2002 election (including independents who joined them and are now part of PML(Q)).