Re: Election predictions
Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan has had ZERO effect on the politics of Pakistan, and he got such a pathetic welcome by his supporters is a fact now being openly voiced by his party leaders, and unashamedly pro-Nawaz papers like the Nation. Plus the widely predicted defections from the PML Q to the PML N has not materialised at all. This probably explains why Nawaz is dithering about boycotting the elections, as he has realised his stock has considerably plummetted over the 8 years he has been in Royal exile. Hence, I think in a free and fair election the PML Q will fair pretty well, and will definetly get a majority in Punjab, with the PPP taking Sindh, MMA coming out in top in NWFP, but not quite a majority, and a mixed result in Balochistan.
But let me venture an early prediction. Of the 342 seats up for grabs in the National Assembly the final tally could look as follows:-
PML Q - 114 PPP - 86 PML (N) - 34 JUI (F) - 25 MQM - 20 JI - 15 ANP - 10 PML (F) - 6 PPP (Sherpao) - 4 Others (Independents etc) - 28
- Those marked in bold form the present ruling coalition * - 172 seats are required to form a majority govt. - 228 seats are required for a 2/3 majority.
Now that Nawaz Sharif has decided not to contest the rejection of his papers, it is looking more likely his party will boycott the elections. That almost automtaically means the seats his party would have won will go to the PML Q instead, and probably ensure they have enough seats with the MQM etc to form the govt again.