Effects of Sept. 11 on Economy

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
41

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Spock: *
.... There is no doubt that these attacks caused a significant paralysis of the US (and World) economy. **For several days, people didn’t go anyplace; they just watched the news.
[/quote]

WRONG.

[quote]
Buying stopped at the malls; pleasure travel just dried up; business travel nearly halted; borrowing stopped;
[/quote]

It did slow for few days, but then media played a good role in waking up people's "loyalty" .... "spend money to help your economy" and people really did spend as a show of "loyalty". If you don't believe that read the news article of post 911 era.

[quote]
people stopped sending jokes and other frivolous material on the Internet;
[/quote]

I don't know how that helps any economy.

[quote]
the stock markets dived;
[/quote]

Worst analysis. Stock markets were already going down even before 911, they continued to go down for first few days then they took a jump to a point which was senseless, stocks rose to prices which there weren't worth of.

[quote]
airlines, restaurants, hotels, theme parks, rental car agencies, etc. lost a great deal of business.
[/quote]

Yes, that did happen, mainly in US economy, people stopped travelling by planes, but many people shifted to "cars", business was effected for first few days, but "this is what terrorists want, scare people away" words showed up on media and people tried to go on with life as "normal".

To say economy was not effected at all by 911 would be incorrect, but to put all blame on 911 would be a bigger mistake as well.

42

Uncle jee, I never wrote that, an economist probably did... Just saying "no", "nah" in responses to a newsitem is not very convincing... You could post some of your articles to support your views... Oh, and can you comment on the article by Karim Khan, that one is more factual...

43

Another example how the 911 has affected professionals like this doctor below, who is not in any way connected to what Ashcroft calls *enemy combatants *

**SOS for US visas **

A Pakistani doctor

At last US Embassy has started to receive clearances from the US State Department since September 16, for the males aging between 15 and 45. It is very encouraging news and I personally want to thank government of Pakistan for its efforts to pursue the case at the highest presidential level. I must also thank US government for understanding the sensitivity of the matter.

I have found that most of the clearances are for people who are either going to visit United States or planning to study there.

I am a doctor. I graduated in 2000 and spent two years in clearing the USMLE (United States Medical Licensing Examination). Last year, I visited US for interviews and signed my job contract in April 2000. I came back to Pakistan to change my visa status from visit to job category. I was supposed to join from early July, but it’s been three months and I am just still waiting. I have not yet received my visa, although they approved it in June this year. Student visas are also important, but delay in these visas can waste only a semester. For doctors it is a matter of their career. If God forbid, hospitals decide to cancel our job contracts for being so late in joining, then what will we all do? Who will pay us back about $10,000 that we have spent during this time? Who can give me my two years back?

The change of visa status from visit (B1/B2) to job (J1/H1) is a legal requirement imposed by the US government. This year many doctors again are going to USA for interviews for jobs, do you think they would come back to Pakistan to get their status changed, considering our delays in visas? I don’t think so. I appeal to US ambassador, President of Pakistan, Secretary Foreign Affairs and other concerned that please save the future of the doctors who are late for their jobs for more than three months now. Kindly look into the matter and take it to which ever level it is necessary to salvage our careers.

Islamabad

44

** here is the link again … **

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/9/13/201951.shtml

Attacks Could Push U.S. Into Recession, but Hope Remains
NewsMax.com Wires
Friday, Sept. 14, 2001
WASHINGTON - The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington might be enough to push the fragile U.S. economy into recession, economists said Thursday.
“It wasn’t a healthy economy to begin with, and this could be just enough to push us into a mild recession,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist with Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

“It’s going to give a hit to consumer confidence,” Kyser told United Press International, in a telephone interview. “There has been a complete disruption of passenger flights. Consumers are going to pull back.”

Besides the airline industry, Kyser said, tourism, retail and the shipping sectors will feel the negative effects of Tuesday’s attack. Tougher security measures now in place at the nation’s airports will increase shipping and travel expenses that will be passed along to the consumer.

“Any industry that depends on air freight is going to experience interruptions to its businesses” and increases in the costs associated with doing business that would be passed along to the consumer, he said. According to a survey released Thursday by researchers at the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment declined even before Tuesday’s terrorist attack.

The index fell to 83.5 in early September, the lowest reading since the economy was emerging from recession in 1993. The index read 91.5 in August and 106.8 a year ago, the survey said. Economists expected the number to remain near August levels.

Researchers also found that consumers were worried about losing their jobs early in September, and believed the unemployment rate, which last month jumped to 4.9 percent, would go even higher.

Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, said growth in the third quarter would decline slightly because of Tuesday’s attacks, before predicting a mild upswing for the fourth quarter.

“This economy clearly slowed in the second quarter, clearly slowed in the third quarter, but the real issue facing investors is still the same, and that is, will the economy start to do better in the fourth quarter and I’m saying yes,” said Johnson. “I’m predicting that, and there are signs that will indeed happen.”

Despite the bleak economic news, the slumping markets, which will open Monday, are expected by some analysts to open stronger as flag-waving investors show that America is still strong. After a strong opening, some analysts predict that economic realities could take their toll, sending the markets lower.

New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso said Thursday that trading in all equities would resume Monday at 9:30 a.m. EDT. The opening will be subject to system tests conducted Saturday.

“There are a lot of institutional investors that are thinking along those lines, some are very patriotic investors, more patriotic than you might have guessed,” Johnson said. “But in addition to that the market is at undervalued levels and many have told me … if they get a down draft of stocks when the markets open … they’re looking at it as a buying opportunity.”

“My guess is they will not get that opportunity, because it won’t go down as much as they’d like,” he said.

Kyser agreed. “The terrorist’s goal of causing complete chaos to the financial center failed because the U.S. came together so quickly. Everyone has confidence that the situation has stabilized.”

The New York Times reports economists at J. P. Morgan, led by John Lipsky, wrote that the economy would decline in the third quarter and that financial markets would be more volatile. But, the report said that it was premature to say whether the terrorist attack would tip the economy into a recession.

“There will not be lasting disruptions to the U.S. economy or its financial system from yesterday’s physical destruction,” the report said. “A return to normalcy should be evident by next week. Any lingering harm to the Manhattan economy (which accounts for about 2.5 percent of overall U.S. G.D.P.) will be offset by rising public spending on infrastructure and security.”

45

In reply to CMs last post… Plz read parts in bold…

http://www.terrorismanswers.com/policy/athome2.html

Wasn’t the economy already contracting before the attacks?
Yes. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academics based in Cambridge, Mass., says that the U.S. economy started to falter in March 2001. “Before the attacks, it is possible that the decline in the economy would have been too mild to qualify as a recession,” said the bureau, which is widely considered the arbiter of the business cycle. “The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important factor in turning the episode into a recession.”

So as you can see, the global economy was in recession before 9/11, but it was too mild in the US compared to the other countries, and it was very mild compared to what happened after 9/11… Remember all the series of job cuts that started after 9/11?
*

Read this too…

How many people are out of work?
The unemployment rate, which in January 2001 was 4.2 percent, began rising as the country fell into recession—and went up more sharply in the three months immediately following the terrorist attacks. The Labor Department said that 8.3 million people were unemployed at the end of 2001, the highest level of U.S. unemployment in more than six years. In the spring of 2002, the unemployment rate hovered under 6 percent.

46

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/sept11/story/0,1870,142637,00.html

The article in the link above shows how Osama failed to strike a permanent blow into the heart of financial markets in the US… All he did was provide a blimp, and this analysis has been made one year after 9/11 so its pretty interesting…

47

Economy was in slumps before 9-11 already and future looked grim as well. War on Afghanistan, provided Bush with a diversionary tactics to take focus away from domestic economy issues and united the entire nation behind the GI Joes. This an old tactic. Whenever the US has gone to war the attention has been focused on US military endeavors, no matter how good things looked at home.

Now that the tune of “war on terrorism” been harped a bit too long, and OBL and Crew havent been captured, not to mention teh collateral damage which makes military hawks look incompetant, Bushra needs another diversionary measure. The focus is slowly shifting back to domestic economy and this time they want to invade Iraq.

PS: CM, I agree. :k:

48

Spock The policies changes were in relation to the attacks and not the economy. I have said that before. I will say it again.

Lets recap: I said the following.

  1. The US economy was going down hill.

You just posted a link that says exactly that, but in posts before that you said that was not true.

  1. The job cuts were due to Enron, world com etc.
    You can see using the FED stats that job cuts started in Oct, increased in nov and that is when Enron happened. They went sky high when World com followed and the stocks and companies took a battering when they had to restate their finances. If you dont know what you are talking it is best to keep quiet.

But forget all that. Show me which sectors took a battering right after sept 11th, if sept 11th was so bad prove it.

Consumer confidence was low.
Stock market was low.
Nasdaq crashed.
Stocks were over inflated due cooked books.
Cooked books once deflated showed a large loss.
That caused companies to cut costs.
Meaning labour.

Very simple. Now show me how Sept 11th changed that framework above and for what sectors.

Edit: Your link: http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/sept11/story/0,1870,142637,00.html said this:

**

It was a blip, and thus wasnt that bad. Second it hastened the decline which was already in progress. I suggest you look at your links more closely next time.

49

Bachay, read my last post carefully… I said the economy was’nt going uphill, like all the countries in the world at that time, but it was decimated by these attacks… Next time read more carefully kid…

50

Spock must you cut and paste selectively and not in context? Anyway back on track. In your very first post you attribute teh down turn in the economy to the sept 11th attacks. You are flip flopping. Now please show me which industries and sectors that were so devastated by Sept 11th.

51

]Post 1:
**
[quote]
Thanks to Osama and the Al-Qaeda, the economy is in shambles... Graduates having a hard time getting jobs, and those that have jobs, are getting lay offs...**
[/quote]

There you imply that the economy was in shambles due to the attack.

Post 2:
**
[quote]
So it had nothing to do with your beloved Al-Qaeda and their attacks? How come many Pakistanis graduates were going abroad, enjoying lax immigration benefits, and ended up with excellent jobs? If there was no capitalism at that time, do you think they would have gone abroad and worked just because the khalifah wanted them to work for the welfare? LOL NO...**
[/quote]

Your first statement says it all.

Post 3:
**
[quote]
snip.... CM, I know you love what the hijackers did, but you should not deny it kicked the economy pretty bad.**
[/quote]

That again says it all. You blame the attacks for the down turn.

Post 7:
**
[quote]
CM, I dont think you know anything about the economy at all... Like I said before, you dont even know what H1s are, and they are directly related to the US economies... This is not an ordinary visit/business visa that you normally see, so before wasting your time, do read what I was referring to .Please read that post over again, when did I say the reversal of visa policy affected the economy?? I merely said that because of your beloved attacks, all of a sudden they started changing policies, put a stringent control on H1s...**
[/quote]

Here you link the H1 visa directly to the economy. When i have said it was a policy thing. Then you agree with that in your post to fraudia.

Need i go on? You flip flop all through out this thread.

52

Yes, the attack crippled an economy that was going down, can you deny all those links that I pasted? They clearly say that... At that time this was the only economy that was going somewhere, even though it wasnt the best of times...

I am gald you have now learnt what an H1 visa is... Can you prove where I said that an H1 visa is the reason why the economy got busted? I said that it was the poor condition of the economy after 9/11 because of which they dont want workforce in their own country...

53

Your own link says the economy was going down. An American UTD agrees with my assessment, the economy was not crippled by the attacked. It might have hastened it, but the effect was minimal over all. Enron and World com were worse.

54

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by CM: *
Your own link says the economy was going down. An American UTD agrees with my assessment, the economy was not crippled by the attacked. It might have hastened it, but the effect was minimal over all. Enron and World com were worse.
[/QUOTE]

Instead of saying 'an american utd agrees with you' can u post his link... I would appreciate articles rather than personal insults etc...

55

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Spock: *

Instead of saying 'an american utd agrees with you' can u post his link... I would appreciate articles rather than personal insults etc...
[/QUOTE]

Tough...read page 1 of this thread. UTD agrees with me and then leaves the conversation.

56

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by CM: *

Tough...read page 1 of this thread. UTD agrees with me and then leaves the conversation.
[/QUOTE]

I thought u were referring to some authentic link or something... If youre so consent with the opinions of people, the majority thinks they did hurt the economy... I wish you were here in the US with me when I (along with hundres of other Pakistanis) went to a job/career fair, both last year, and this year, you could always tell the difference... 40% of them last year got jobs, and virtually no one got recruited this year...

57

Ok then prove me wrong. Show me which sectors of the US economy were hit so badly by the sept 11th attacks, that they went from profit making to losses after the attack

58

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by CM: *
Ok then prove me wrong. Show me which sectors of the US economy were hit so badly by the sept 11th attacks, that they went from profit making to losses after the attack
[/QUOTE]

I dont need to, since according to you, not even the airline industry was affected cuz of the attacks, something else must have happened on that day I guess...

59

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Spock: *

I dont need to, since according to you, not even the airline industry was affected cuz of the attacks, something else must have happened on that day I guess...
[/QUOTE]

Great you will make all these statements but not back them up. Good Grief for once i am at a loss for words...atleast now you can stop replying to me posts.

60

U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes’ Statement
Regarding Airport Security
October 10, 2001

*The airline industry has been most directly affected in the aftermath of the attack, but the ripple effect of the attacks is being felt throughout other industries as well. Hotel, travel, and tourism employees, who number in the hundreds of thousands, are at risk of losing their jobs due to the nationwide decrease in travel. In Maryland, tourism is a $7.7 billion industry. It means jobs for our people and revenues for our State and local programs. While we are moving vigorously to encourage travelers to come to Maryland this fall, a decrease in tourism is expected in the State, as it is nationwide. While it is crucial that we provide support to airline workers at this time, we should also remember the plight of the hundreds of thousands of other workers across the State of Maryland and the country whose livelihood may be affected.
*

http://sarbanes.senate.gov/pages/press/airportsecurity.html