Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

60 drone hits kill 14 al-Qaeda men, 687 civilians

Friday, April 10, 2009

By Amir Mir

LAHORE: Of the 60 cross-border predator strikes carried out by the Afghanistan-based American drones in Pakistan between January 14, 2006 and April 8, 2009, only 10 were able to hit their actual targets, killing 14 wanted al-Qaeda leaders, besides perishing 687 innocent Pakistani civilians. The success percentage of the US predator strikes thus comes to not more than six per cent.

Figures compiled by the Pakistani authorities show that a total of 701 people, including 14 al-Qaeda leaders, have been killed since January 2006 in 60 American predator attacks targeting the tribal areas of Pakistan. Two strikes carried out in 2006 had killed 98 civilians while three

attacks conducted in 2007 had slain 66 Pakistanis, yet none of the wanted al-Qaeda or Taliban leaders could be hit by the Americans right on target. However, of the 50 drone attacks carried out between January 29, 2008 and April 8, 2009, 10 hit their targets and killed 14 wanted al-Qaeda operatives. Most of these attacks were carried out on the basis of intelligence believed to have been provided by the Pakistani and Afghan tribesmen who had been spying for the US-led allied forces stationed in Afghanistan.

The remaining 50 drone attacks went wrong due to faulty intelligence information, killing hundreds of innocent civilians, including women and children. The number of the Pakistani civilians killed in those 50 attacks stood at 537, in which 385 people lost their lives in 2008 and 152 people were slain in the first 99 days of 2009 (between January 1 and April 8).

Of the 50 drone attacks, targeting the Pakistani tribal areas since January 2008, 36 were carried out in 2008 and 14 were conducted in the first 99 days of 2009. Of the 14 attacks targeting Pakistan in 2009, three were carried out in January, killing 30 people, two in February killing 55 people, five in March killing 36 people and four were conducted in the first nine days of April, killing 31 people.

Of the 14 strikes carried out in the first 99 days of April 2009, only one proved successful, killing two most wanted senior al-Qaeda leaders - Osama al Kini and Sheikh Ahmed Salim Swedan. Both had lost their lives in a New Year’s Day drone strike carried out in the South Waziristan region on January 1, 2009.

Kini was believed to be the chief operational commander of al-Qaeda in Pakistan and had replaced Abu Faraj Al Libi after his arrest from Bannu in 2004. Both men were behind the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Dares Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya, which killed 224 civilians and wounded more than 5,000 others.

There were 36 recorded cross-border US predator strikes inside Pakistan during 2008, of which 29 took place after August 31, 2008, killing 385 people. However, only nine of the 36 strikes hit their actual targets, killing 12 wanted al-Qaeda leaders. The first successful predator strike had killed Abu Laith al Libi, a senior military commander of al-Qaeda who was targeted in North Waziristan on January 29, 2008. The second successful attack in Bajaur had killed Abu Sulayman Jazairi, al-Qaeda’s external operations chief, on March 14, 2008. The third attack in South Waziristan on July 28, 2008, had killed Abu Khabab al Masri, al-Qaeda’s weapons of mass destruction chief. The fourth successful attack in South Waziristan on August 13, 2008, had killed al-Qaeda leader Abdur Rehman.

The fifth predator strike carried out in North Waziristan near Miranshah on Sept 8, 2008 had killed three al-Qaeda leaders, Abu Haris, Abu Hamza, and Zain Ul Abu Qasim. The sixth successful predator hit in the South Waziristan region on October 2008 had killed Khalid Habib, a key leader of al-Qaeda’s paramilitary Shadow Army.

The seventh such attack conducted in North Waziristan on October 31, 2008 had killed Abu Jihad al Masri, a top leader of the Egyptian Islamic group. The eighth successful predator strike had killed al-Qaeda leader Abdullah Azzam al Saudi in east of North Waziristan on November 19, 2008.

The ninth and the last successful drone attack of 2008, carried out in the Ali Khel region just outside Miramshah in North Waziristan on November 22, 2008, had killed al-Qaeda leader Abu Zubair al Masri and his Pakistani fugitive accomplice Rashid Rauf.

According to the figures compiled by the Pakistani authorities, a total of 537 people have been killed in 50 incidents of cross-border US predator strikes since January 1, 2008 to April 8, 2009, averaging 34 killings per month and 11 killings per attack. The average per month killings in predator strikes during 12 months of 2008 stood at 32 while the average per attack killings in the 36 drone strikes for the same year stood at 11.

Similarly, 152 people have been killed in 14 incidents of cross-border predator attacks in the tribal areas in the first 99 days of 2009, averaging 38 killings per month and 11 killings per attack.

Since September 3, 2008, it appears that the Americans have upped their attacks in Pakistani tribal areas in a bid to disrupt the al-Qaeda and the Taliban network, which they allege is being used to launch cross border ambushes against the Nato forces in Afghanistan.

The American forces stationed in Afghanistan carried out nine aerial strikes between September 3 and September 25, 2008, killing 57 people and injuring 38 others. The attacks were launched on September 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 15, 17, 22 and September 27. However, the September 3, 2008 American action was unique in the sense that two CH-47 Chinook transport helicopters landed in the village of Zawlolai in the South Waziristan Agency with ground troops from the US Special Operation Forces, fired at three houses and killed 17, including five women and four sleeping children.

Besides the two helicopters carrying the US Special Forces Commandos, two jet fighters and two gun-ship helicopters provided the air cover for the half-an-hour American operation, more than a kilometre inside the Pakistani border.

The last predator strike on [April 8, 2009] was carried out hardly a few hours after the Pakistani authorities had rejected an American proposal for joint operations in the tribal areas against terrorism and militancy, as differences of opinion between the two countries over various aspects of the war on terror came out into the open for the first time.

The proposal came from two top US visiting officials, presidential envoy for the South Asia Richard Holbrooke and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen. However, the Pakistani military and political leadership reportedly rejected the proposal and adopted a tough posture against a barrage of increasing US predator strikes and criticism emanating from Washington, targeting the Pakistan Army and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and creating doubts about their sincerity in the war on terror and the fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban.

60 drone hits kill 14 al-Qaeda men, 687 civilians

This one especially for some who think Drone attacks are precise and should continue to operate. Of 60 Drone attacks conducted, 14 targetted were Al-Qaeda men, while the civilian toll was a grand total of 687.

That’s what? about 6% success rate. tsk tsk tsk…heck even extremists get 10% rate, actually since their target is civilians make that 90-100%. This is another reason American aggression using Drone attacks needs to stop immediately, or the anti-americanism will rise to a point where the west will find itself crying “Pakistan is Anti-West”.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

Could be true, but I am highly suspicious of this biased source. Are they getting the figures faxed over from Baitullah Mehsud?

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

This report coincides with U.S. admission last week that Drone attacks are not helping and civilians are becoming targets. I suspect faulty intel at work here. Either way, the drone attacks at the hands of U.S. are not helping, and should be handed over to Pakistani authorities so Pakistanis can better utilize them to target the likes of Baitullah Mehsud, whom U.S. let go after locking on as target.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

It's possible, but the numbers don't seem to match up with what I read in newspapers on causalities.

Or perhaps intel provided by ISI to CIA is wrong and meant to protect their talib assets.

But the best way to crush the taliban will have to be with boots on the ground. American or Pakistani remains to be seen. You can't fight a counterinsurgency just with air power.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

False accusation. Check your facts again, please don't consult Cnn/Fox

It was ISI/PA which gave CIA the coordinates to Baitullah Mehsud, the target was locked on, tracked and let go by CIA.

So yes, perhaps CIA is protecting its TTP Talib assets (until recently when they put head money on Baituallah after oh...so many years).

The point is, desired target:civilian casualties ratio is not acceptable. Period. There's something called collateral damage when 100 extremists are targetted and 10 civilians get caught in the wrong place/wrong time. When it's the other way around, it's outright negligence and translates into suspecion as if U.S. is doing it deliberately.

Please use logic, not false rhetoric from American Headline news or you'll be among those people who actually believed Irack had WMDs and the search is still on. ISI is fighting against all odds including Mossad sponsored BLA/Raw n CIA sponsored TTP, so it is rather naive for any Pakistani to shift the blame to the nation's primary Intelligence Agency.

What was the last time CIA was accused and targetted by the world for their heinous crimes which include torture/smuggling of ordinary citizens on the "suspecion" of..../drug trafficking, and so on.

ISI is doing what it is supposed to do. You can keep believing the American gibbrish about ISI aiding TTP if you want, but you will not be having the last laugh when truth comes out.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

How are you so confident in the ISI and army's ability to do the right thing when we know of their history with the jihadis? What is happening in Buner right now? Why is the army missing in action? Who killed and tortured the 3 Baloch leaders? All evidence is pointing to the military and agencies.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

Now this is worse and thats why america is the king of terrorists and we are still continuing propaganda

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

Talib terrorists standing next to a body of one of the policemen they killed in Buner. I’m sure they got back at America by killing a local policemen!

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

What else do you need from the army?? the army is killing itself without proper arms; as nothing has been provided by the americans to fight the insurgency like drones; night vision cameras ets. The americans are helping (or not serious in countering the anti pakistan elements of TTP) like there are news that Pakistan had been providing information to the americans about the position of Baitullah Mehsud but he was not targetted; since he was not a threat to the americans. Then there was a news in the NEWS according to which people from Afghanistan would come to attack pakistan army in Bajaur but the americans would do nothing to stop them. The americans want a selected operation; operation against only those taleban who are against american interests in the region. In this situation it would be very difficult for the army/intelligence agencies to take a clear line. As far as the fate of three Baloch leaders is concerned lets wait for the law to take its course and not decide on our own as to who did the killing!

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

But who's fault is that but the army for not providing for it's own soldiers? Why buy submarines, F-16's and other india focused weapons when the real threat is from within? And why is every place in nwfp being left at the mercy of the bloodthirsty talibs? Sorry, but it doesn't seem like the army is committed or has even an idea on who the enemy is.

On the Baloch leaders murder, it's pretty clear who picked them up from all the available evidence as being reported in the media. But I won't be holding my breath for any honest inquiry

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

well...whats the answer to nato's/american failure in afghanistan after 8-9 years of engagement?? they have even failed in iraq...despite having all this weaponary...pakistan army is nothing as compared to american/nato armies...if the americans couldnt control this violence how can pakistani army do the same?? similarly only ARMY can do nothing...the civilian institutions need to be in place which inlude paramilitary, police and other civil infrastructure...the militias like taliban strike against the same infrastructure first...which helps them create a void in which they thrive...the army is going on in circles in fata/nwfp...as they evict taleban from areas but in the absense of civilian authorities they return back...only army is not the solution!!! the army/pakistani government is in a quagmire thanks to the diktats of uncle sam...and now they dont have any sense of direction!!!

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

You/we can't keep blaming uncle sam for our misrule and lack of governance or any coherent policy on how to deal with taliban/bla etc. Drone attacks are a very recent phenomenon. The problem has been festering for a long time and our army/isi and other right wing stooges have been instrumental in making sure they keep festering.

The writing is on the wall. Pakistan is a non governable entity that never got it right and I'm afraid time has passed for any easy fixes. The half hearted operations against taliban have been largely failures and it seems the next WWIII will be centered around pakistan. Unlike the wars in iraq or afganistan for "nation building", this time it will be total war for destruction.

I would love to be wrong about this.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

ok lets leave it as such...i agree that pakistan army and isi is collaborating with the taleban...please reply as to why the americans and nato forces not been able to control taleban in afghanistan???

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

1) They can't send ground troops into taliban safe havens, training camps, and bases in pakistan to disrupt the the taliban's command control. Much of the taliban simply shifted east into pakistan as the US invaded.

2) Not enough boots on the ground as they were diverted to iraq for stupid reasons. You have to conduct war on a much larger scale to contain an insurgency.

3) Traditional difficulties of fighting in afghanistan remain.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

That right, maybe the command and control are not in afghanistan. Maybe they are in pakistan, Dubai, or saudi arabia.
And this talibanism has become an ideoly, and spreading very fast. Despite tight security taliban followers are arrested in UK, US, france, germany... There must have some one very strong behind them
i think US should stop interfering and leave Afganistan, its been 8 yrs and high time they realized they cant win this war, rather they are fueling the war.
what was the end of gulf war and iraq war? same will happen here.
My analysis: another yr or two, US will be forced to have a peace deal with afghans. and quitely leave. and leave pakistan in a mess, rewading our leaders, and making headlines that this was on terrorism was successful.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

1) leave the taleban on our side of the border...there are plenty more on the west of durrand line who are controlling over 70 % of afghanistan which the americans have not been able to control...these are the same people which have not been won over by the brits and russians...there's nothing sinister over here, just history repeating itself...

2) Well we will see the impact of more boots on the ground in the coming summers...

3) Traditional difficulties for the americans for fighting in afghanistan...and no such difficulty for the pakistanis... :)

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

since 9-11 us spend approx $1 trillion on war on terrorism.
Pakistan got about $11bn aid and expenditure $34bn.(9th apr. Thenews)
RESULT??

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

Perhaps Amir Mir needs to go back and check what his own paper has written about death toll in drone attacks. He claims from a “report” that only 14 Al-Qaeda and 687 “innocent” Pakistanis have been killed. Perhaps he considers the Taliban as “innocent” Pakistanis …
First drone attack in Kurram kills 26

US spy planes on Monday carried out the first-ever attack in the Kurram tribal region, killing 26 suspected militants and seriously injuring several others, official sources said.

The tribal militants, belonging to Sadda town, told The News they were later permitted to visit the area after the retrieval of all the bodies from the rubble of the two buildings. Villagers said they saw 30 coffins being shifted by the Taliban to an unknown destination in several pick-up trucks. They said seven critically-injured militants were admitted to a hospital in Sadda.

Two senior Taliban commanders told The News on telephone that 18 of their colleagues had been killed in the US attack on the two houses. They said seven of their people were injured and admitted to a hospital.

As you can see from the “The News” report the Taliban are caliming 18 of their “collegues” killed (i can take an educated guess on who their “collecgues” are … can you !!!) … also the news claims that the villages said 30 were killed. So as per the News report anywhere between 18-30 “militants” were killed. Tell me now are tehy “innocent” Pakistanis !!! Perhaps mr. Mir should have read his own paper and not some shadowy “Pakistani” authority !!!

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

Money spend on bombing... killing... creating more fertile grounds for recruiting people for terrorism. The more you kill, the easier it is for terrorists to convince people to join in.

Re: Drone success rate worse than terrorist targets

:k: EXACTLY!
If simple people like us can understand this equation, why cant the military strategist?