Democracies Do Fight One Another?

This is a popular neo-con myth, that by spreading US style Democracy (thorugh the force of a gun obviously) is good for the World. because Democracies never Wage War against each other; Democracy isn’t a bad thing, but these idealistic ideas in the end up creating more danger in the World rather then less.
http://www.thefridaytimes.com/inews5b.htm
Do democracies never fight each other?

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Ammar Ali Qureshi
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH THINKS future threats to the United States can only be removed by replacing despots and authoritarian governments by democracies. This means two things: pre-emptive strike can have a moral basis and democracy is a value system that restrains states from going to war and thus promoted peace.

He isn’t the first to expound the thesis on democracy. President Clinton in his 1994 State of the Union address declared that democracies never warred with each other. Thus, promoting democracy abroad was to be an important objective of his foreign policy.

Is it correct to say that democracies do not fight each other and promoting democracy would ensure peace? It is probably true that well-established democracies do not go to war with each other. On the other hand, less stable and immature democracies are as likely to stumble into war as any authoritarian regime. States traverse a long path, characterised by many setbacks and even reversals, before becoming mature democracies. They can’t be expected to start behaving like mature democracies immediately after the process of democratisation has begun. Importantly, it is during this transition period that incipient democracies are extremely vulnerable to impulses of bellicosity and belligerence.

Recent history of transition democracies, emerging after the disintegration of USSR and its communist allies, also provides examples of inchoate democracies going to limited or full-blown war with each other. Transition democracies engaged in conflict with each other during the last 12 years include countries such as Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serbia and Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia, and Russia and Chechnya.

Indeed, most of these conflicts in the former communist countries have been attributed to the twin tide of democracy and nationalism. History shows that the twin forces of democracy and nationalism, in a country formerly ruled by authoritarian regimes (dynastic monarchies or totalitarian communist states) have often led to war, starting with the expansionary wars of French Revolution. If one takes into consideration civil wars also then it is quite pertinent to note that the American Civil War (1861-65) was the first war between democracies. During this war, General William Sherman clearly perceived that the resisting power of a democracy rests more on the strength of the people’s will than on the strength of its armies. However, it is wrong to assume that masses in fledgling democracies find war a popular pastime or an attractive option. In fact, it is the ruling elite in these unstable democracies that tries to deflect domestic pressures or worries by shoring up nationalist sentiment and subsequently going to war.

In transition democracies, a former authoritarian regime is replaced by a weak central authority governing on the back of a tottering domestic coalition, cobbled together in haste to assume power and consisting of diverse and conflicting interest groups. The main partners or players in these domestic coalition often pursue incompatible agendas, rendering ruling coalition unstable and in desperate need of mass support. In order to gain mass support, different players in the political battlefield appeal to nationalist sentiment to rouse the masses. Once aroused, masses are very difficult to contain. Different interest groups aligned with the ancien regime, such as military, also find it extremely attractive to arouse nationalist sentiment in the masses as the twin impulses of nationalism and militarism strengthen these institutions and help them to challenge a weak central authority. Moreover, an unstable ruling coalition, riven with ethnic divisions, conflicting religious ideologies and diametrically opposed political orientations, in a nascent democracy often finds it very attractive to deflect domestic worries by assuming a belligerent attitude, on the back of aroused nationalist sentiment, towards neighbours and by seeking victories abroad.

The point is not that America should stop spreading the gospel of democracies across the globe. It has definitely been seen that mature democracies hardly go to war with each other but it is dangerous to assume that democracies, whether nascent or mature, stable or unstable, will automatically avoid war. It is laudable to promote democracy but at the same time it is prudent to remember that democratizing states are extremely war-prone during the initial decade. It is also equally wrong to assume that all democratizing states will go to war or become nationalistic. However, it is important to keep in mind that both these outcomes, going to war or becoming nationalistic, are extremely likely in the case of transition democracies. There have been instances in the twentieth century when transition democracies have eschewed war, militarism and nationalism. Germany and Japan, in the post 1945 World War II history, are obvious examples but both these countries were occupied by the Allied Forces, who were themselves mature democracies. More importantly, these transition democracies received generous economic reconstruction package under the Marshall Plan. Apart from providing economic assistance, occupying forces also guaranteed the defence of these transition democracies by forming NATO, a military alliance, against the communist threat.

All those who profess blind faith in democracy’s restraining influence towards war would do well to read this chilling warning from Liddell Hart, a prominent British military historian and strategist, in his highly readable and brief book Why don’t we learn from history (1971 edition).

“The history of ancient Greece showed that, in a democracy, emotion dominates reason to a greater extent than in any other political system, thus giving freer rein to the passions which sweep a state into war and prevent it getting out- at any point short of the exhaustion and destruction of one or other of the opposing sides. Democracy is a system which puts a brake on preparation for war, aggressive or defensive, but it is not one that conduces to the limitation of warfare or the prospects of a good peace. No political system more easily becomes out of control when passions are aroused. These defects have been multiplied in modern democracies, since their great extension of size and their vast electorate produce a much larger volume of emotional pressure”.

Zakk,

Not a myth at all. Infact, one of my all time favorite web sites is run by a now retired professor, named RJ Rummel. Rummel was a Nobel peace prize nominee for his research into peace, and the ways in which power kills. His idea of “democide” is that governments, through various ways, kill their own citizens as well as their neighbors. He is by nature a statistician, and a researcher, not a politician. Many of his “casualty counts” for various events such as wars, genocides, conflicts, bombings, are very precise and methodical. He has reseached, in depth, the concept of “Democratic Peace”, and I think you will find it far more than some neo-con myth. I will post a section of his conclusions below, and give you the web page that outlines his entire research.

DEMOCRACIES PROMOTE NONVIOLENCE
The organizers of this conference asked me write a taxonomic paper on the question: “Can the relative bellicosity of states be measured and predicted as a function of their internal political system?” The answer of most current empirical research is decidedly yes.[3]
Indeed, the empirical relationship is even more profound and comprehensive than the question implies. In theory and fact, the more democratic the political systems of two states, the less violence between them; and if they are both democratic violence is precluded altogether.[4] That is, democratic states do not make war on each other. Moreover, the more democratic a political system, the less foreign and domestic collective violence; the more totalitarian, the more likely such violence.[5]

Perhaps the most surprising finding is that the less democratic a government, the more likely it will kill its own citizens in cold blood, independent of any foreign or domestic war. Now, war is not the most deadly form of violence. Indeed, while 36 million people have been killed in battle in all foreign and domestic wars in our century, at least 119 million more have been killed by government genocide, massacres, and other mass killing. And about 115 million of these were killed by totalitarian governments (as many as 95 million by communist ones). There is no case of democracies killing en masse their own citizens.[6]

The inverse relationship between democracy and foreign violence, collective domestic violence, or government genocide is not simply a correlation, but a cause and effect. In a nutshell, democratic freedom promotes nonviolence. These results are worthy of the greatest attention and analysis, for if true, which I am now convinced they are, then peace research has in fact defined a policy for minimizing collective violence and eliminating war: enhance and foster[7] democratic institutions–civil liberties and political rights–here and abroad.[8]

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Ohioguy: *
Zakk,
...Many of his "casualty counts" for various events such as wars, genocides, conflicts, bombings, are very precise and methodical...
[/QUOTE]

Just curious. Did he count the Palestinians killed by Israeli (including "pre-emptive" strikes")?? Did he count Genocide in Gujrat, India last year? several years earlier?

Changez,

Actually he retired a few years ago, and has become, of all things a painter! His best work was done in the 90's, and I think his last book was published in 1997. Therefore I don't think he has the numbers you are looking for. I will poke areound his web site and see....

that yank wrote "DEMOCRACIES PROMOTE NONVIOLENCE"

huh wa fk did I miss something or did the worlds self-proclaimed biggest brightest and best go against world opnion to wage an unjust war a couple of weeks ago?

From the article at the top of the thread:

"The point is not that America should stop spreading the gospel of democracies across the globe. It has definitely been seen that mature democracies hardly go to war with each other but it is dangerous to assume that democracies, whether nascent or mature, stable or unstable, will automatically avoid war. "

Actually, the one thing that Rummels research proves is that democracies are less likely to kill their own people, and less likely to go to war. As with anything there is a continuum, and the authors premise that "nascent" countries go through periods of instability, is probably absolutely true. But stupid.

The stupid part is that people think democracy is easy. At one point some bonehead here suggested that elections in Afghanistan could be held 6 months after the Taliban were ousted. As if elections were the only important part of building a Democracy. Yet other efforts such as Bosnia show that political stability and democracy is not the path of least resistance. The path to democracy is not linear and not painless. A totalitarian regime is far easier to deal with, as the people have to invest nothing, they are simply told what to do. Ultimately they pay a price....

The quote "democracies promote nonviolence" is indeed true. Two democracies have never been to war. Large scale wars are almost always between a democracy and a totalitarian regime, or between two totalitarian countries. Some of the proof of this is, oddly, is with India and Pakistan. A year or two ago we were at a crisis point with nuclear threats emerging from both sides. Today we have some thawing of relations, and even talk of a nuclear stand down. Despite what you think about the "quality" of democracy in both countries, the fact is that when faced with large scale hositlities, two "democracies" generally de-escalate. (giving Mushy the benefit of the doubt here, despite being a general who siezed power in a coup, I think he understands that building a democracy is a slow brick by brick process).

Thap, read Rummels' web site before rendering an opinion.

*The quote “democracies promote nonviolence” is indeed true. Two democracies have never been to war. Large scale wars are almost always between a democracy and a totalitarian regime, or between two totalitarian countries. *

As the article pointed out that’s a fallacy OG, your countries war of Independance was fought between a budding democracy and a Parliamentry Democracy (and the ally which played a significant difference was none other then a Monarchy France). Similairly the US civil war was fought between two democracies, and was exceptionally brutal to the people ( almost 40-50% of combatants who died were POW’s who were locked away in internment camps).

I pasted this elsewhere; http://www.dawn.com/weekly/books/books1.htm

Immediately after the tragedy of September 11, Zoltan Grossman, an American peace activist and regular contributor to the radical magazine Counterpunch, published a list of ‘A century of US military interventions from Wounded Knee to Afghanistan’, based on Congressional Records and the Library of Congress Research Service. Grossman lists 134 interventions, small and big, global and domestic, covering 111 years between 1890 and 2001.


Besides that, Democracy also spawned, Hitler and to an extent Mussolini. While in the US’s case it’s intervention in Korea and South East Asia, and the use of weapons of Mass Destruction like Napalm and Cluster Bombs were authorised by a civilian Government against an Enemy that never showed any hostile intent against the US. And similarly the only Historical usage of Nuclear Weapons against Civilians was a US "achievement:, and that too against a country that was militarily finished, and economically being starved to death at the time.

Wars of Imperialism have been more sucecessfully fought by Democracies rather then totalitarian regimes. Britain and the US are excellent examples of that. While I don’t argue the merits of a Democracy, because of it’s greater ability to self correct failed policies and the fact that they do not act against their own people. The core argument, that Democracies do not wage war against other Democracies is flawed. Promoting Democracy through the barrel of a gun does NOT make the World a better place.

Zakk:

I think you need different examples to prove the "fallacy" that Democracies don't wage war on other democracies.

The Revolutionary war was not two democracies fighting. As a war of independence, only one country was involved. A second democracy emerged as an outcome.

Similarly, the American civil war was not two democracies at war with each other. It was two groups at war with each other in a single democracy.

Civil Wars and Revolutions are oranges to the apples you need to compare.

While you could be right that democracies are more likely to fight wars of imperialism or colonialization, I don't think those wars are fought against other democracies.

Frankly, what alternative is there to Democracy. How many Swedens and Norways can there be? Cuba, North Korea, how many communist/socialist states are there? Now name the successful ones. Islamic Democracies? Haven't seen a lot I like in Iran, and the youth of Iran are rebelling for change. China is mocing toward capitalism, but they just had the first successful peaceful transition of leadership, and it was less than transparent. Do you want to know what people in the world really want? Follow the green cards.....

So what else is there? Certainly nothing that is proven. Democracy has it's flaws. Friedman has an interesting article today saying that the "vote" in a democracy is probably the least important. Freedom from corruption, a workable and fair legal system is probably the most important set of pillars that are needed for a fair society. What good is a vote if the government is corrupt? The article you posted is simply evidence that anything worth something is going to involve a long and painful road. And if the people are not committed to it, democracy cannot succeed.

Should the US "export" democracy? Absolutely. No more of this supporting dictators, no puppet regimes, no corrupt "friends". Stand up for what is right, and fight for it onbehalf of those who are so downtrodden that they can no longer remove the jackboot themselves.

Just to give a little more fodder to the crowd. Sometimes Democracy does begin at the end of a gun. And, unfortunately the ends do justify the means in a limited amount of cases. So be it.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Ohioguy: *
Thap, read Rummels' web site before rendering an opinion.
[/QUOTE]

You should read less and think more, is Rummel your grand papi?

Keep things simple, who's the best at global war-mongering my vote goes to the democracies, no sir you can't beat 'em.

You don't have to read reams of offal to come to simple conclusions. PM me and I'll show you how.

To be fair though it's been some time since you've had a democracy, spend a little time in Europe before you next vote, thats if you get to this time round. I guess anthrax at polling booths aint out of the question.

You should read less and think more, is Rummel your grand papi?

Rummel is my younger brother. Just kidding.

Rummel expanded his theory of how governments kill people. Were people killed in Iraq by war? Yes. Frankly in any given year in Iraq under Saddam the same number of people would have died in less media friendly ways.

War mongering? You know the more I get called that, the more I kinda like it. Because, and this is not just me talkin' but most of the American people, it was the right thing to do. We actaully believe that.

And Europe, how wonderful. Unemployment in Germany running at 11%, the French are constantly on holidayand violating EU financial guides. And the Kyoto treaty that highlighted the enlightened continent? Turns out no one is going to come close to reducing gasses anywhere near what they expected. Hmmmm wonder who told them that.... The socialist-lite governments are not really engines of growth anymore. Old Europe is a great place to live while the place rusts around you....

And our Democracy is fine thank you. Any country that would just about impeach a president for some nooky has a system of checks and balances that is working well enough. Right now, the bush agenda is simply on a roll (don't blame me, I didn't vote for him) somebody should tell bin laden that when he smashes planes into buildings that he creates a million little Bushs......

Priceless!!! :k:

That amerikun wrote "creates a million little Bushs"

In that case gonna have to open a big arse zoo and get a hundred weight of bananas in.

OG lucky your aunty stepped in otherwise I'd be forced to pummel your Rummel.

:rotfl:

That amerikun wrote "creates a million little Bushs"

Think of all the fancy aircraft carriers and nifty flight suits we will need too, so that we can have a "top gun" in every pot.....

Shoot with a million little Bushes we will be able to have whole bushels of evil, not just a plain old axis. On 9/11 I was standing around with a bunch of construction workers. To the man they said, "Somebody woke the sleeping giant." Pretty ornery when we get awakened suddenly HuH?

bush and his six shooter. still got four bullets left..... Now who is the meanest nastiest snake-eyed hombre hankerin' for a shoot out with the new sheriff in town......

Just like the wild west. First some frontier justice, and if you live you can see the judge.

Democracies all start with some chaos and confusion...... and a tough sheriff to keep the gunslingers from runnin the town.....

I had the opportunity to visit the Museum of American History at the Smithsonian a few days ago. They had an exhibit memorializing 911. From little petite housewives to hefty construction workers, from gray haired grandmas to tatooed teenagers, tears, weaping and sobbing permeated those rooms (myself included). I can tell you that as a people, we have not let go of the pain, anger and resolve that was instilled within us on that day.

There is more than enough passion and emotion stored within us to liberate a few more worthy countries and bring democracy home to a few more million people. It's not imperialism. It's not colonialism. And it certainly won't be directed toward another democracy. The people of democracies are slow to anger. Unite them behind a worthwhile cause and they will not cease until they have seen the objective accomplished.

Unemployment in Germany running at 11%,

And the US's is at 6% and climbing. US citizens are working more hours then ever before , the society is one of the most violent in the Developed World. With something like 14% of Americans have limited if any access to Health Care and the Nation now outspends the whole World in Defence Spending. Voter turn out in US elections has been steadily declining, reflecting voter apathy and disillusionment with the system. Need I go on? Is this the system you advocate the World adopt?
A poverty level of 15-17% is about half that of Pakistans! And this for the worlds first "hyper power".

I accept Democracies inherent system of checks and balances and how it reflects the mood of the people. But, that does not make the US system a better system. Again the usage of Nukes in 1945 have to this day not been considered an act worth condemnation by the US, the enfranchisement of the Black population post 1865 did not radically change their situation for nearly a century ( I believe the US still refuses to apologise for slavery?). Democracy is not inherently good ( again I repeat Democracy created Hitler/Mussolini/ and even Imperial Japan), people who say that it is the only solution, show a lack of understanding for the World and the complexity of it's problems.

I have always thought highly of some of the ideals behind the US, from it's leaders to the system. But, this allegedly"sleeping Giant", has started trampling on way to many dead and living bodies for me to see any sympathy or appreciation for it's "mission of goodness".

Personally Ohioguy and myvoice, if I could divide the World into those leaders who want never ending war and those who don't, I know who mine would be standing with. But, I don't know how you'd feel about Dubya sitting with UBL?

Zakk:
It’s always nice to verify statistics before falling into the trap of merely repeating conventional wisdom as if it were fact.

You state that the US “society is one of the most violent in the Developed World.” What empirical facts do you rely upon in making that statement? Many people would look to crime rates and crime statistics. One of the more independent and respected studies of crime around the world is International Crime Victims Survey’. The Hague: Ministry of Justice.

In its 2000 report, it compared 17 industrialized/developed nations and concluded that the US ranked only 11th out of 17 in comparing prevalence of crime. The US crime rate was lower than Australia, England & Wales, Netherlands, Sweden, Canada, Denmark, Poland, Belgium, and France.

If one were to compare only “contact crimes” of robbery, sexual assault and assault with force, the US ranks only 13 out of 17 with a better/lower rate than all developed/industrialized countries except Japan, Portugal, Spain and Belgium.

Maybe you just conclude we are more violent because our brand of football is different than yours.

Here is a link to the International Crime Victims Survey’ . http://www.unicri.it/icvs/publications/pdf_files/key2000i/h2.pdf

6% is the level of "natural" unemployment. The country under Clinton defied this law for quite a sustained amount of time, that's why now 6% seems high to some.

Comparing US unemployment rates for the decade of the 1990’s to Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK, we find as follows:

  1. The US had the lowest unemployment rate in 1999;
  2. The second lowest to Japan in (1994, 1995, and 1996);
  3. The third lowest to Japan and the Netherlands in 1993 and 1998;
  4. The third lowest to Japan and Sweden in 1990;
  5. The fifth lowest in 1991 and 1992.

In July, 2002, Forbes published an expanded list of 50 countries and found the US tied with Japan for the 18th lowest unemployment world-wide.

http://216.239.33.104/search?q=cache:VyB4Ni_Zl5sC:www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2002/0722/unemployment.html+International+unemployment+rates&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

And UTD, in the 25 years between 1975 and 2000, in only 9 years was the full year average unemployment below 6%. We have been sort of spoiled by a string of 8 straight years with unemployment ranging between 4-6%.

So contrary to the implications present in Zakk’s the above posted message, the US has a relatively low crime rate, a relatively low unemployment rate and a relatively low poverty rate (actually 11-12% not the 15-17% he claims). Sounds like this democracy is doing pretty darn good.