It all comes to this.. there will be a new world cup champion today at Lords.
Host England v/s Last minute semi-finalist NZ.
I’m rooting for NZ and its my projection they’ll win.
Big picture
And so it all comes down to this. After 47 matches stretched across six weeks, after a rollercoaster of a group stage (which, like all the best big dippers, started tame before lurching into a series of gut-wrenching twists and turns), and after a pair of semi-finals that were as compelling as they were different, we’re left with just two teams standing. World Cup virgins the pair of them, each with their own tales of heartbreak and regret to fall back on as they look to go that one step beyond.
England and New Zealand, eh? The nearly-est of nearly-men throughout the tournament’s history. Three times runners-up in the first five editions on the one hand (followed by a three-decade bout of mourning that gives Queen Victoria a run for her money); eight semi-final appearances out of 12 on the other, a succession of doughty line-ups invariably greater than the sum of their parts, invariably found wanting in the final analysis. But at some stage on Sunday afternoon, someone’s World Cup record is going to have to lurch into credit ? at long, long last.
But it also had to be these two teams, didn’t it? Fate plays a spurious hand in sporting contests - it’s there for all to see when it suits the narrative but strangely takes a back seat on all other occasions - but these two teams have been locked in a special embrace for the past four years; from the shellacking that was meted out on Eoin Morgan’s men at Wellington in the 2015 World Cup, to their stunning resurgence on home soil a couple of months later. And now onwards to the biggest stage of all.
Team news
Bairstow appeared to tweak his groin while batting in the semi-final, but he was not sent for a scan and seems set to take his place in an unchanged XI. Given the green tinge on the pitch, it is highly improbable that England will sub out one of their seamers to accommodate Moeen Ali.
England (probable): 1 Jason Roy, 2 Jonny Bairstow, 3 Joe Root, 4 Eoin Morgan (capt), 5 Ben Stokes, 6 Jos Buttler (wk), 7 Chris Woakes, 8 Liam Plunkett, 9 Adil Rashid, 10 Jofra Archer, 11 Mark Wood
Henry Nicholls was to undergo a fitness test on Saturday after tweaking a hamstring against India, but no other changes are anticipated. The legspinner Ish Sodhi played in New Zealand’s last visit to Lord’s against Australia, but that was on a used deck.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Henry Nicholls, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 Jimmy Neesham, 7 Colin de Grandhomme, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Trent Boult, 11 Lockie Ferguson. Pitch and conditions
It’s perhaps an indication of the distance that England have come since the start of the tournament that Morgan did not raise more of an eyebrow at a remarkably green wicket that had more in keeping with a golf green than a cricket pitch two days out. Some of the colour had drained from the surface by preview day, but there’s still going to be some live grass come the 10.30am start on Sunday. “It looks greener from afar than it is up close,” said Morgan, diplomatically, adding that it’ll go whiter and burn off when the sun comes out. Whether England would choose to bat or ball first “depends on how hard the wicket gets”, he added.
Strategy punt
- There’s mode of attack in New Zealand’s ranks that England will be unable to replicate (even allowing for Jofra Archer’s ambidexterity in the nets). Left-arm seam has accounted for a staggering 39 wickets at 13.6 in the course of the four group games at Lord’s - compared to 18 at 42.7 for the right-arm quicks. And that tally, of course, includes Trent Boult, who claimed a hat-trick in New Zealand’s defeat against Australia. England, meanwhile, lost nine of their ten wickets to Mitchell Starc and Jason Behrendorff in their group-stage loss to the Aussies. If Boult can shape the new ball down the slope, into England’s front pads, there could be fireworks.
- England’s recent prowess against spin will be tested by one of New Zealand’s unsung heroes of the campaign. In the three matches where Mitchell Santnerhas conceded over 6 RPO, NZ has lost two and scraped through the third, by five runs against West Indies. Conversely, his first spell of 6-2-7-2 against India was instrumental in their successful defence of 239.
Stats and trivia
- The importance of Roy and Bairstow’s opening partnership extends beyond numbers. Their mere presence at the crease has been talismanic for England. On the seven occasions that England have not lost more than one wicket in the first Powerplay, they have won every time. On the three occasions they’ve lost more than one wicket in the same period (including of course with James Vince in the side for Roy) they’ve lost every time.
- In keeping with the theme of this tournament, the team batting first has won seven out of the previous 11 World Cup finals. However, each of the last two has been won by the chasing team, India in Mumbai in 2011 and Australia at the MCG in 2015.
- England have won seven of their last nine meetings in ODIs with New Zealand, including a 3-2 victory on their tour of New Zealand in February and March 2018. However, New Zealand have won both of their most recent encounters at Lord’s - by 51 runs in 2008 and by five wickets in 2013.
- Of the four World Cup finals played at Lord’s, the team in the away dressing room has won all of them. England will be in the home dressing room on Sunday.
Source : cricinfo
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