China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. are authoritarian states that will support only militaries and dictators. This is evident from their politics in Central Asia where they are trying to maintain the status quo (i.e. rule of the communist bosses/dictators from the days of Soviet era). Supporting dictators is the only way China and Russia can ensure their influence in Central Asia. The Central Asian masses are tired of Russian colonialism and are yearning for democracy and openness. The Russian-allied Central Asian dictators, however, are not allowing democratic reforms in their states.
Recent massacre of large number of demonstrators by the Islam Karimov, Uzbakistani dictator, in Andijan, Uzbakistan, and American harsh criticism of that repressive act lead to deterioration of relations with USA. Consequently, Uzbakistan asked USA to close its basis there. Other regional and international political trends in Euroasia are the democratic revolutions in Georgia, Ukrine, and Krygizistan. The revoultions in Ukrine and Georgia were pronouncedly pro-West which discomforted China and Russia. On July 05, 2005, the SCO, i.e. Shangai Cooperation Organization, asked USA to define the timeline for pulling out its forces from Central Asia and Afghanistan to which C. Rice responded by saying that terrorist threat has not yet been eliminated fully.
The American policy in Central Asia seems to be “strengthening of democracy” so an alliance of democratic states on the western flank of China is formed as a counter-weight to the rise of the power of authoritarian China. America’s strategies in Central Asia are primarily China targeted. There seems less likelihood of a permanent alliance between China and Russia against America/West.
After all China acted against Russian interests during Cold War. And Russia wouldn’t like the unbridled rise of a power to global status in its vicinity to challenge its interests in Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East. It seems Russia also likes some degree of containment of China. It will like its interests in Baltic, Balkans/Black Sea Area, and Central Asia to be secured and for that will use organizations like SCO as a bargaining chip but antagonistic relations between Russia and the West/America as during Cold War are highly unlikely. Moreover, Russia, too, is faced with the threat of Islamic extremism both in broader Central Asia and within Russian Federation itself. Its relations with Western Europe have also improved significantly. Moreover, India is a long-time ally of Russia and their time-tested relationship wouldn’t so easily go down the drain.
So another Cold War between West and Russia is unlikely. America will somehow be able to accommodate Russian interests in Central/Euro Asia. Russia will stay as a major player in world politics but will neither be permanently allied to China-Punjab-Arab nexus nor the West. It will try to reap the benefits of the rivalry between the two blocks switching sides and using its leverage in either block as a blackmailing tactic to maximize its gains
Let us presume another scenario i.e. the major powers like China, Russia, and India and minor/self-styled powers like Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia reach a consensus as for as their interests in Central Asia are concerned. The important question, in the first place, is, are such consensus possible?
Rather more pertinent is the question, what leverage do Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have in Central Asia except Islam to further their influence? Obviously, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, particularly North-Western, cannot be allowed to plunge once again into turmoil and provide breeding ground for religious extremism and militancy. No power, whether India, Russia, or even China is ready for another resurgence in Kashmir, Chechnia, and Sinkiang.
Another scenario is, Afghanistan is divided with its southern part acceding to Pakistan and northern part to other Central Asian states. But there are a lot of complications here.
First and foremost is the possible bloodbath and ethnic cleansing, as a consequence of disintegration, among the warring factions for territory, trade routes, and water sources. Second, is the domino-effect the disintegration would trigger, with the resulting clash between local factions also dragging the major powers into the conflict. It should not be forgotten that most of the states in Central-South Asia and Middle East are unnatural with colonially-demarcated geographies. Most importantly, would the powers like USA/Europe, India, Iran, and even Russia be willing to accept the expansion of a nuclear Pakistan, where Islamic radicals are said to have a major base? They would do whatever they could do to pre-empt Pakistan acquiring such an aggrandized status.
Yet another scenario is, Afghanistan is ostensibly declared a buffer state but in actuality is allowed to be ruled by the neighboring powers through proxies. That would be a disaster for Pashtuns in particular and for Afghans and other Pakistanis in general. Kashmir will be up in arms again and the relations between India and Pakistan will plunge back into the abysmal deterioration before the present peace process. The anarchy in Afghanistan will engulf the region once again and the chances of hot confrontation between the historical rivals in the region will rise this time to a dangerous level.
Another Cold War will be a very bad omen for democracy and rights of people and marginalized nationalities in Pakistan. In 1950s, the Punjab-dominated Pakistan formed an alliance with the West against communist expansion and the west reciprocated by empowering military regimes and dictators. Democracy was butchered in Pakistan and Bangalis, Sindhis, Pashtuns, Baluchis, Muhajirs, Kashmiris, etc. suffered immensely at the hands of military dictators. The only classes that benefited from military rule/dominance were Punjabi elite and their feudal and bureaucratic allies from other provinces.
If Pakistan joins the block of non-democratic states like China, Iran, and Suadi Arabia that will mean the continuation of the rule of the Punjab-heavy military establishment. This will surely cause further erosion of democratic culture.. Democracy is the only way smaller nationalities can get their rights. So smaller nationalities of Pakistan in particular and its masses in general should work for political stability in Afghanistan, normalization of relations with India, and spread/strengthening of democracy in Central Asia, Middle East, and Afghanistan for true democracy to take root in Pakistan.
Sindhis, Muhajirs, Pashtuns, Baluchis, Siraikis, Punjabis, and Kashmiris are smaller communities that should not have global ambitions.