Re: Could this be the exit strategy??
Yes, US is looking to leave (that’s why I am calling this an exit strategy), but not without some sort of guarantee that Pakistan will NOT move in with its cronies (i.e. Taliban) and control Afghanistan. Ever increasing closeness to China and prevalent anti-US feeling in Pakistan is enough to cause concern in US mindset.
A face-off/stand-off between Afghan (with US backing) and Pakistan would be a cheaper (both monetarily and politically) war for US to fight. But in order for this to happen, the world has to believe Pakistan is indeed synonymous with Taliban and has ambitions of controlling Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the recent direction of events makes one think it could easily happen by 2014. To be honest, there is truth in the fact, that Pakistan is still not willing to give up on Taliban and wants to control Afghanistan through Taliban.
US is playing this game as it knows fully well, that there is no way they can contain or eliminate Taliban without Pakistan’s full co-operation. Unless, Pakistan does either a) Force Taliban to moderate and enter compromise (ideal solution) with Afghan people or b)Disassociate completely from Taliban and do all it can to eliminate them, my prediction is likely to come true.
I hope Pakistan proves me wrong and does one of the above once the anger dies down.
The fact that the Civilian establishment which in the recent years appeared to be beginning to gain control of the Armed forces is on the back foot again, makes one fell less optimistic.