Could MET have predicted the flood disaster ?

I think the amount of damage could have been minimized if the MET departement was not incompetent.
The following is the chart of Wheat Futures for septembet’10 on CBOE and the time line of flood in pakistan a major wheat producing and consuming nation.
Look at the jump in price just before the flood hit pakistan. The futures traders have the most complete data of weather patterns around the globe.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/CW90.GIF

ISLAMABAD: Here is a timeline of events since devastating floods hit Pakistan on July 29, killing an estimated 1,600 people in two weeks, according to the United Nations.

  • July 29: Flash floods and landslides caused by monsoon rains hit northwestern Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir as the country mourns its worst aviation disaster, which killed 152 people in Islamabad.
  • July 31: Local authorities say the floods have killed at least 800. The deluge kills another 65 people in mountains across the border in Afghanistan.
  • August 2: The UN says that nearly 980,000 people have been left homeless or have been displaced.
  • The Red Cross appeals for aid.
  • August 4: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani calls on his administration to speed up the delivery of aid. There is a growing backlash against the civilian government and President Asif Ali Zardari over failures to provide food, water and sanitation to the victims.
  • August 5: The UN estimates that the flooding has killed 1,600 people in northwestern Pakistan alone.
  • Numerous cases of diarrhoea.
  • The UN says it has received 18 million dollars of international aid.
  • August 6: Pakistan declares a red alert as the flooding worsens, reaching the south and leading to the evacuation of half a million people.
  • The floods have affected 12 million people in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, the National Disaster Management Agency says.
  • August 7: In the south, notably in the densely populated province of Sindh, a million people are evacuated, bringing to 15 million the number affected across the country according to the local authorities.
  • August 8: Landslides in Gilgit-Baltistan province in the far north.
  • Gilani visits flood-hit areas of Sindh province, calling again for international aid.
  • August 9: Around 13.8 million people have been affected by the floods in Pakistan, making the scale of the disaster worse than the 2004 tsunami, 2005 earthquake in Kashmir and the 2010 Haiti earthquake, a UN official says.
  • August 10: Six million people need humanitarian aid in order to survive, according to the UN.
  • Zardari returns to Pakistan, after a European tour for which he was criticised.
  • **August 11: **The UN appeals for 460 million dollars in emergency aid for flood victims.

Re: Could MET have predicted the flood disaster ?

Its difficult for layperson like me to say how accurate and how early they could have warned. But you are right, the most poor have been hit the worst. Its poor of southern punjab that have been worst hit economically, the ylost the livestock, most of the crops.

Re: Could MET have predicted the flood disaster ?

I have been to the MET office Islamabad located in H-8 many times. It was located right next to my school, and they were pretty state of the art even back in the 90s, and had a generally good reputation for being accurate. I guess sometimes its beyond them to foresee the dangers of such disasters of an epic nature.

There's climatic problems worldwide right now which are unexplainable. For instance, one of the northern most ice chunks, 4 times bigger than Manhattan broke off in Greenland. The great Russian heatwave is another looming climatic problem. I dont know if we can blame a human fingerprint but if that's true, the developed nations are to blame for the highest emissions and should be donating large sums of money to those affected.

Re: Could MET have predicted the flood disaster ?

Do you remember 92 flood and 2005 Earth quake.
There was a special reason of 92 flood.
Two days holiday and offices who control and order for control of dams were closed. Same happened at Earth quake.
Our systems are so poor that they never work.
Rains in KP were unexpected but rest of the area could be saved a little with better management of water.

Re: Could MET have predicted the flood disaster ?

^ There is no way to predict earthquakes, Einstein! Unless Pir Zardari gets a revelation of course.

Re: Could MET have predicted the flood disaster ?

September 1992 flood resulted from non-stop heaviest of the heavy rains in Kashmir which resulted in super flood in Jhelum River and they had to open the spill over gates to save Mangla dam then which resulted in many lives lost in the downstream.