Comparison of Pakistani economical growth and GNP under different rule

[Sa1eem]

Re: Comparison of Pakistani economical growth and GNP under different rule

@legbreakgoogly

I have been talking with economist friends and they feel that Pakistan’s economy may have reached a critical mass with the size of the middle class being c. 30 million people with incomes of $10,000/annum (Standard Charterd/SBP agree on this).

That is a sizable market in any terms, meaning investment will come in, these lot will spur consumer spending and prop up good growth rates.

The issue now is to develop politically, so as to become a stable nation to maximize the growth potential.

Well, I believe that $ 10,000 per annum is not real dollar but dollar in purchasing power parity and that is good with respect to Pakistan past, but certainly not something to get satisfied. Nevertheless, I do not think that Pakistan economy has really got stable enough to sustain high growth unless it is properly monitored (actually this is true for all economies). I also believe that Pakistan economy is not monitored optimally and if that would happen, growth rate would become much better, could even reach over 10 percent sustainable real growth. That only means, Pakistan is doing very good, but potential is there to do better still.

Permament democracy and political development for good would only come when Country would achieve a certain level of literacy and economy; that at moment is far away thing. If political setup would come in near future with present situation, I believe that economy would suffer and in the end, there would be military interfearance again.

Some might question that. They might argue that Pakistan can live with even corrupt democracy, referring to countries that are poor but have some sort of corrupt democracy, like India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Unfortunately people do not realise that Geopolitical situation of these countries and Pakistan is different.

Pakistan has conflict with a country that is 7 times more populated than Pakistan, has economy 6.5 times larger, defence spending 5 times more, with area 4 times bigger. On top of that, Pakistan has many destabilising factors within the country, that only army can tackle (Tribal area, Balochistan, so-called jihadi tanzeems, gun culture in almost all provinces of Pakistan, etc).

Because of such disparity with adversary (India) and prevaling local situations, Pakistan armed forces get involved in many areas and has increaseed the influence over the country. Politicians being corrupt lose all respect as well as legitimacy in the eyes of others, including armed forces and most in masses have no sympathy for them. Well, there are many factors that makes the situation in Pakistan such that army can move into government any time when there is wide spread corruption or mismanagement of Pakistan economy by politicians in power.

Only thing that can stop that interfearance by army in future is if politicians coming to power are honest and capable (as that could create respect and legitimacy for politicians in power, even in armed forces). That can only happen if masses that elect politicians get literate, get out of nepotism, and become financially independent from corrupts (big landlors, sardars, area politicians) that control their life, so that they can elect people of credibility. Nahi tou .. if a change would come, after few years of political rule, Pakistan would be singing: Yea toy wohi jagah hay guzray thay ham jahaan say .