Who will be allied with whom in the next elections?
It seems as if PMLN has got allies in all provinces now, they have forged alliance with JUIF in KP and Punjab, nationalist parties in Balochistan and nationalists/PMLF in Sindh. How much would this help PMLN in getting majority in the coming elections?
PPP has lost all its allies one by one. At the moment its PPP and PMLQ in Punjab, but both parties can give nothing to each other.
PTI is flying solo which could prove to be disastrous for them, as it would be PTI versus every one else.
If possible I believe PTI should ally with JI and PKMAP, if they also dont go in the PMLN band wagon.
ANP would be an interesting one as well, as a few days back they had negotiated an alliance with JUIF, maybe they will also ultimately go towards PMLN.
JI, JUI-F and nationalist parties are 4-5 seat parties, and their alliance might not be enough to give PML-N power in the center. PML-N might have to just revel in the psychological edge of being the highest seat winner.
Despite superficial quarrels, I believe PPP, MQM, PML-Q and even ANP will stick together, as they are birds of a feather, and dont have many friends other than each other.
The next center govt will be a very shaky coalition, which will rely heavily on everyone’s support. In the current setup, all PPP needed was PML-Q, but now they would need MQM and ANP a lot more, plus a few more.
Quite honestly, I think that whoever makes a new govt in the next elections could be thrown out via a vote of no confidence within 1-2 years, because of the way seats will be distributed.
PTI will be going in without a coalition, and yes, they dont have a chance of making a unilateral govt, but their strength will be in their opposition presence, something that was missed so far.
Finally, dont discount the power of rigging, which will be a factor in these elections as well, despite the hubub about a neutral EC.
Frankly PPP has got nothing to give to MQM, JUIF and ANP. Thats the reason they’d prefer to contest solo or with help from other parties like PMLN. Some parties could join PPP after the elections if they have the numbers for forming the government. At the moment in KP all independent analysts are predicting a PTI government there, so it makes sense for JUIF, ANP and PMLN form an alliance to try thwart that. What has PPP got to show any where in the country, especially Punjab, KP and Balochistan?
PPP has got nothing to show, but then again, our elections are sadly about who can buy the most votes, not about who performs the best. PPP is the best in vote buying.
JUI-F has already announced an electoral alliance with PML-N. JI might go the same route. But its very tough to think MQM and ANP will do so too. In KPK, it would be a 3 way race (PTI vs PML-N/JUI/JI vs PPP/ANP).
In the center, PML-N, JUI-F and JI + nationalists would command no more than 140 odd seats. PPP+MQM+PML-Q+ANP will also command around 120 or so. Neither will be in a safe zone, and it would be interesting to see how they court each other’s allies in order to make a center govt.
^ MQM and PPP have different vote banks, they will appeal to their respective electorates now. MQM will play the aggrieved party that PPP did not fulfill the promise of local body elections and PPP will use this as a success story that they didnt cave in. So it suits MQM and PPP to go solo in the elections (in Sindh), after the elections MQM will side with PPP or PMLN needs to be seen.
As far as ANP is concerned, it suits them to go solo as well. A few days back there was some discussions on some alliance with JUIF, and now JUIF with PMLN so some sort of alliance could be in the offing between the three parties. It seems as if JI wants to join PTI but we will see how things pan out.
coalition government in uk is a great example on how to run coalition government. Without compromising on major principles, they are compromising on small issues to bring their country out of the economic mess they are in.
Here coalition politics is ridiculous. This ANP and JUI-F who were working with PPP for ministries will be working for the same with PML-N? what a joke!
The funniest coalition would be between ANP (the party most affected by terrorism) and JUIF (which supports TTP). It shows the depth where our political parties can reach for securing seats in the elections.
bas kar do yar us ki sacrifices ka badla kab tak awaam se letay raho gay..
but on a serious note wasn’t this part of 2008 deal k 5 years for PPP and then 5 years for N.
If there was no deal (which i doubt) PPP still has more chance to come to power (these ppl need more screwing yet before they come to their senses and vote the rite person).
sufficient proof of what? that the foolishness continues even after the exemplary loot of PPP. Did they win election in that constituency, because they delivered? Murad Ali Shah didn’t do anything for Sehwan / Dadu
you depreciated it