You are on a gameshow…there are 3 doors labelled A,B and C…one has a star prize and two have a booby prize…
You are asked to choose a door…you pick Door A…
The gameshow host tells you that the star prize is definitely not C…
So obviously that leaves A and B…
So the option you are given is whether you want to change your original answer or not…from A to B…
Now logically its a 50:50 chance of getting the right answer now…but supposedly the answer is that it is more likely to be B because it is better to change your original answer…
There is supposedly some mathematics formulae to explain this but i havent got a clue…
Has the gameshow host told you that its better to change your original answer? If not, its still 50-50. I only opened your thread because I was like "hey, its about math, maybe he needs some help on his trig homework.
Re: Clueless...can someone who knows maths explain...
Well PCG like i said...the logical answer is 50:50...two choices...1 is the star prize and 1 is the booby prize...so A is no better than B...but the answer is actually B...and im confused...
the scenario is from a novel about an autistic boy...'The Curious Incident of the Dog in Night Time'...i havent read it...when my friend finishes he'll give it to me...
But the scenario occurs in that book...and supposedly there is a formula to explain why changing your answer is more beneficial than sticking...even though logic points to it being 50:50...
So anyone who knows this formulae...can you explain cos neither of us understand...
Re: Clueless...can someone who knows maths explain...
lol...i know that that is the answer logically...im not stupid...
Two options...obviously its 1/2 chance of picking the price...
But supposedly their is a theory i think its called Montys Law or something like that which suggests that if you change from A rather than stick then there is a higher probability of being correct in the door that you pick...I was told people did it for A Level maths?...
Re: Clueless...can someone who knows maths explain...
Everyone is wrong!! it's 2/3, or 66.67%. Y'll are stupid:D
NBN, here is how it goes.
Assumptions: Door C has babe
now you have three options
1) choose door C- you have babe; if you switch, you LOSE
2) choose door b- you have booby; if you switch you WIN (because he will open A)
3) choose door A - you have booby; if you switch you WIN (because he will open B)
Each of these (1, 2, 3) events has 1/3 probablity of happening.
In two of those events (2&3) if you switch you win, and in one event (1) where you dont win if you switch.
So when he switches he wins the babe twice out of three possible events. Therefore the probablity is 2/3. It pays off 66.7% of the time when you switch.
Re: Clueless...can someone who knows maths explain...
A...
1) The price is behind the door...Well and good...
2) If the price is not behind door A, then the guy can simply say heck...Bad choice...
3) But, if the guy changes his answer, and the price is behind door A, then the emotions and guilt of changing the right choice will weigh heavily upon him...
