The average market loss for September is 0.68 pct. On CNBC, a pundit spouted thusly:
Markets in September go down when they do poorly in the first 8 months. However, at the end of August, if the market is above its 200 - day average, the market shows an average gain of 0.4 pct in September. That is the case this time.
So fellow Technical Analysts, what say you?
Re: Calling all Technicians
TA = glorious nonsense.
Re: Calling all Technicians
Don't be a hater
Re: Calling all Technicians
i guess TA has its uses. when the patterns emerge and the lemmings.. i mean TA walay sell or buy with scant regard to value, that creates an opportunity to buy or sell for the value playazz..
Re: Calling all Technicians
Today the market was down 0.05 pct. Yesterday it was down the same. Makes it down 0.1 pct in two days. As opposed to the projected 0.4 pct rise for the month by the Technical expert
However, patterns were detected using a moving 45 second moving average. Whenever the stock price was 0.025 pct above the moving average, it signaled a short term buying opportunity lasting 10 seconds. Data mining is being done to identify a symmetrical effect on the down side as a selling or a short-term shorting indicator.
Re: Calling all Technicians
If Congress votes not to fund the EX-IM Bank Dow will go down!
Re: Calling all Technicians
What is EX IM BANK, SindSagar sir?
Re: Calling all Technicians
^ The Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank) is the official export credit agency of the United States federal government.[1] It was established in 1934 by an executive order, and made an independent agency in the Executive branch by Congress in 1945, for the purposes of financing and insuring foreign purchases of United States goods for customers unable or unwilling to accept credit risk. The mission of the Bank is to create and sustain U.S. jobs by financing sales of U.S. exports to international buyers. The Bank is chartered as a government corporation by the Congress of the United States; it was last chartered for a three-year term in 2012 which will expire in September 2014.
Big Corporations like Boeing and Caterpillar depend heavily on its guarantee of loans to foriegn customers buying American made Capital goods!
Re: Calling all Technicians
TA = glorious nonsense.
Not entirely. As long as no one can succeed in the glorious quest for the holy grail of 'fundamental value', TA would remain relevant.
As soon as you can find a way to measure 'value' of the firms accurately, all stock trading shall cease in a day.
Re: Calling all Technicians
Not entirely. As long as no one can succeed in the glorious quest for the holy grail of 'fundamental value', TA would remain relevant.
As soon as you can find a way to measure 'value' of the firms accurately, all stock trading shall cease in a day.
I am punching above my grade since I think you are some sort of financial guru economist etc. But here is my take
I am not sure one needs to be very exact in assessing the financial.value of a firm. Simple analysis based on balance sheet income statement and cash flow statement over last 10 years will enable anyone with a high school degree to do the necessary digging under the hood.
The technical analysis is something drummed up by wall street to increase buying and selling activity. To generate commissions.
And some mutual fund managers follow a combo of technical and fundamental analysis. Makes them look glamorous.
The great value investors such as Peter lynch Buffett Chris Davis and others did not or do not pay attention to technicals. Unless it provides them mismatch in pricing vs value
Re: Calling all Technicians
I am not sure one needs to be very exact in assessing the financial.value of a firm. Simple analysis based on balance sheet income statement and cash flow statement over last 10 years will enable anyone with a high school degree to do the necessary digging under the hood.
The technical analysis is something drummed up by wall street to increase buying and selling activity. To generate commissions.
And some mutual fund managers follow a combo of technical and fundamental analysis. Makes them look glamorous.
The great value investors such as Peter lynch Buffett Chris Davis and others did not or do not pay attention to technicals. Unless it provides them mismatch in pricing vs value
Okay, here's the thing:
If you could make predictions using fundamentals alone, then thousands others would also be able to do it (like you said, anyone with a high school degree). Suppose you find that company A's Balance Sheet/Cash Flow is great. Many others would reach the same conclusion and would like to buy its shares, pushing the price up instantly (demand/supply) and the new price would not be attractive anymore. This is given the market participants are all rational. Since markets are not rational all the time, there are still opportunities available to make money with fundamentals alone. This goes for medium to long term investments.
Technical analysis gives predictions for short term only. Even if the analysis takes into consideration long term data, but the 'investment advice' it generates if for day trading mostly. Again, given markets are not rational and behavior issues like herding bring in such opportunities.
You are right in a way that investment houses have an affinity for technical analysis but there's a reason. Say, an individual investor uses technical analysis which gives prediction which has a 60% chance of being correct. So he might make money he might lose money. Now if a trading house does that with 100,000 trades every day, then statistically around 60,000 trades would make money and 40,000 would lose money, eventually giving some profit for the day. You cannot write-off technical analysis but it is not advisable for individual traders who trade infrequently.
Big successful investors make money going much beyond fundamentals. They actually KNOW people running the companies, they know the products, they know the potential and product markets. Buffett, for example, would gather much more information from non-financial newspapers than financial ones. A lot of his fortune comes from backing upstarts, most of us doing online trading do not have access to such information. Fundamentals alone would keep you away from making major losses but cannot guarantee a return.
Re: Calling all Technicians
Ok. As stated in article attached investment banks such as gs and Ms make money in equity a d fixed income trading. Article doesn't say what strategy they use. I assume ta is part of the strategy.
Link doesn't work but confirms what u say.
Buffett sure uses his extensive knowledge. Not sure he funds upstarts..byd from China is only company that comes to mind.. even then it was an established company.
Trading houses make money providing trading tools for day traders. Taken as a group I suspect there are many millionaire day traders who started with 10 times that amount.
Day trading is not for the individual investor. As u also stated. Sticking to basics is not rocker science. But these days more so, people over use technology to identify imaginable trends and waste money. Keep it simple - the kiss rule is as powerful today as in the past.
Re: Calling all Technicians
The latest market twists and turns has caught some short time traders flat footed. Not them Technicians though. These folks are very good at telling you what has happened. At the end of each trading day, the Technicians were right there at your service.
Don't fight the trend. For the trend is your friend. Unless it is not your friend. In that case fight the trend. Circular rotis, anyone?
Re: Calling all Technicians
The Technical Analysts were busy at the beginning of the new year. One of the pundits indicated the uptrend for the market is intact. The first support level is at 1990 - (to best of my recollection.).And the second support level?
Re: Calling all Technicians
At 1824 the October lows.
The analyst indicated one should get concerned if the second support level is breached.
Re: Calling all Technicians
Since the trend is your friend and the trend is up, there have been no identification of resistance level.
With the market at 2054, we think the next resistance level is at 2055. With subsequent resistance levels occurring at 1-point increments.
Re: Calling all Technicians
What the F crude (WTI) broke through the 50 dollar level on the downside for the first time in a decade. Technicians are still searching for primary, secondary and tertiary support levels. Each of these levels, when pierced, will generate strong, stronger and strongest sell signals respectively.
Re: Calling all Technicians
The market came very close to breaching the first support level. Within 7 points. Then recovered to being 10 points away.
Re: Calling all Technicians
The Dow hasn’t done this in 100 years: Technician
Here is a Technical Analyst. Preaches sell in June instead of May. Apparently whenever the Dow Max min is within 6 pct for the first half of the year, stocks don’t go down. They may not go up a lot.
According to him, 10 more days for first half of year to be over.
Didn’t realize 5/12 = 1/2